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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@ecstacy - EA is sitting on a hydrocarbon lake. When this stuff goes online (commercial) you don't want to miss that bull run that will last quite a distance. KE will definitely become an international finance hub. The game is bigger than you think and all those plan costing trillions are not pipe dreams. Why the trillion plans all over sudden which are far bigger than the EA nations GDPs? Big money never plays guessing games. It's very focussed and deliberate when it comes having its way. Big banks, multinational want a piece of the game and are already setting up. This is not guess work. EA guys will have to come out of the small mindframe to see the big picture. For now it looks very confusing, but 10 - 20yrs later the talk will be different. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think to re-balance the view on the Eurobond, we should also consider QE from the BoJ, ECB & BoE. @hisah I'm looking at it from a perspective that there must be yield seekers out there. So if they have devaluing Yens, Euros & or GBPs, then why not buy into a USD frontier sovereign bond and make 6-7%? Especially one with a strong emerging mineral & hydrocarbon play? Glorified by the IMF too.  (distorts the Junk Bond look in the long run - tenor) What do you think? I share the same view. KE offers a better play for yield chasers. So the pie should see oversubscription. And if so the stocks will be discounted so that those that miss out get in on bargains. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:Will be interesting to see if EABL closes below 220 - 230 levels as the shaking continues. I don't think the rally is done on this counter. At some point it'll retest 400 again and head higher in future.
People should be excited with corrections? This is where you make your money, buying discounts on quality counters always offers nice bargains.
My watchlist so far - WTK, NMG, EABL, mpesa bank, KPLC, TCL and now adding MSC after yesterday's vol spike and USDKES cross. Buys for 2014 are NMG and WTK joining KQ (late 2013 buy) as posted on the wazua group as the first defence lines for this volatility pending the eurobond outcome. But that nice US Q4 GDP print might spook the eurobond uptake with a stronger USD.
If USDKES breaks above 87.50, I'll get more defensive and will be forced to sell some counters when that time comes. Joy Joy Joy already testing 52 wk low "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Keep an eye on inflation. Me thinks 10% will be hit at some point esp if the food insecurity issue is not handled well like back in 2011. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The market is falling on heavy volumes...the big boys want out...thats the scary part...the hydrocarbon play is overplayed...the US will be oil independent soon...they can really pull the rag on the demand side and let crude slide...If crude slides you will see oil majors postpone their exploration activity.
I think the prospects for Kenya's Eurobond are diminishing everyday...I dont know what took the Treasury so long to float the bond? They will have no one but themselfs to blame if the bond doesnt float.
At the beginning of the year I said the market could slide by 10-15% this year...I'm sticking to this script.
I think we will see a relief rally due to the earnings season...what happens after that will be blood bath....
So when earnings comes...lighten your load on stocks if you have ears.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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hear hear...you talk well my friend. I will be watching very closely ...but with all the happenings in Kenya were everyone wants a piece including now i see some fellow known as HM ..once they make the money where will they invest it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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An interesting read--->U.S. to Be Top Oil Producer by 2015 on Shale, IEA Says http://bloom.bg/HRtmfx
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.
Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.
No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.
@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.
Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.
** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**
Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards... #Word @Hisah, SPT. Im deeply into laggards. Tpse, KK and now MSC. Might seem crazy but my target for MSC is 200% profit. ti hi hi. :d/ The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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I think we dismissed US being our oil buyer in the 71B thread...China crude still at 90 usd range even without US "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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[quote=the deal]An interesting read--->U.S. to Be Top Oil Producer by 2015 on Shale, IEA Says http://bloom.bg/HRtmfx[/quote] Interesting read showing a re-ordering of supplies, consumers & producers. Oil is indeed a non-renewable natural resource.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/16/2013 Posts: 123 Location: MSA
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the deal wrote:The market is falling on heavy volumes...the big boys want out...thats the scary part...the hydrocarbon play is overplayed...the US will be oil independent soon...they can really pull the rag on the demand side and let crude slide...If crude slides you will see oil majors postpone their exploration activity.
I think the prospects for Kenya's Eurobond are diminishing everyday...I dont know what took the Treasury so long to float the bond? They will have no one but themselfs to blame if the bond doesnt float.
At the beginning of the year I said the market could slide by 10-15% this year...I'm sticking to this script.
I think we will see a relief rally due to the earnings season...what happens after that will be blood bath....
So when earnings comes...lighten your load on stocks if you have ears. I will only disagree on the US ability to control the crude prices. That clout was lost when the "7 Oil Sisters" as they were known then lost it against the producing countries after a wave of nationalization. The majors in total have booked reserves of less than 10%. On the other hand Saudi which used to cooperate to squeeze the market now minds its own balance sheet. Speculators and I think @hisah knows rule the market and with the expensive Americas oil sands and China's appetite crude prices may never break below 90. As for KK benefitting without a refinery I still cant get it! But I will hitch on the general sentiments! Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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murchr wrote:I think we dismissed US being our oil buyer in the 71B thread...China crude still at 90 usd range even without US Hey...remember the easing of the one child policy. Let's start this year and in 18yrs?? Also, if the African Century is anything to go by, we'll consume our own produce! Soko ni soko, ama? Yeah.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Hydrocarbons is overplayed... Really Time will tell. ION, NSE20 closes Jan 2014 in the red having erased all gains and breaking the green streak that started in Jan 2012. The index today slipped 2.16% to close the month @4,856.15. NSE20 open 2014 @4910 and closes @4856 which sees the monthly movement at -1.09%. As @deal states, earnings season could see a bounce on the cards, but my eye is on the eurobond since I don't think earnings will have the fire power to stem off the selling. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.
Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.
No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.
@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.
Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.
** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**
Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards... #Word @Hisah, SPT. Im deeply into laggards. Tpse, KK and now MSC. Might seem crazy but my target for MSC is 200% profit. ti hi hi. :d/ Welcome bwana @aguy. Btw ugly ducklings are the way to make money in any market. Buying the unpopular or undiscovered or unpolished value and waiting for Mr Market to spot you once done with the popular stars then the unpopular takes over $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:murchr wrote:I think we dismissed US being our oil buyer in the 71B thread...China crude still at 90 usd range even without US Hey...remember the easing of the one child policy. Let's start this year and in 18yrs?? Also, if the African Century is anything to go by, we'll consume our own produce! Soko ni soko, ama? Yeah. Ofcourse...everyone now wants to drive I mean look at NBO we're wondering how to tame the traffic let alone all other uses of crude "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.
Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.
No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.
@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.
Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.
** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**
Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards... #Word @Hisah, SPT. Im deeply into laggards. Tpse, KK and now MSC. Might seem crazy but my target for MSC is 200% profit. ti hi hi. :d/ Welcome bwana @aguy. Btw ugly ducklings are the way to make money in any market. Buying the unpopular or undiscovered or unpolished value and waiting for Mr Market to spot you once done with the popular stars then the unpopular takes over I am watching this Drunk duckling called EABL. When its too drunk (150 on the alcoblow) i will kiss it mwaaah mwaaah  Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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SittingPretty wrote:the deal wrote:The market is falling on heavy volumes...the big boys want out...thats the scary part...the hydrocarbon play is overplayed...the US will be oil independent soon...they can really pull the rag on the demand side and let crude slide...If crude slides you will see oil majors postpone their exploration activity.
I think the prospects for Kenya's Eurobond are diminishing everyday...I dont know what took the Treasury so long to float the bond? They will have no one but themselfs to blame if the bond doesnt float.
At the beginning of the year I said the market could slide by 10-15% this year...I'm sticking to this script.
I think we will see a relief rally due to the earnings season...what happens after that will be blood bath....
So when earnings comes...lighten your load on stocks if you have ears. I will only disagree on the US ability to control the crude prices. That clout was lost when the "7 Oil Sisters" as they were known then lost it against the producing countries after a wave of nationalization. The majors in total have booked reserves of less than 10%. On the other hand Saudi which used to cooperate to squeeze the market now minds its own balance sheet. Speculators and I think @hisah knows rule the market and with the expensive Americas oil sands and China's appetite crude prices may never break below 90. As for KK benefitting without a refinery I still cant get it! But I will hitch on the general sentiments! Apart form one or two long long term counters. I will off load with the earning season. Once the US starts fracking properly, demand for the commodity will be diminished. The only positive side for us is reduced costs of the petroleum in the country and not export (sadly all our neighbours have it so are the closer ones across the ocean).
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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poundfoolish wrote:SittingPretty wrote:the deal wrote:The market is falling on heavy volumes...the big boys want out...thats the scary part...the hydrocarbon play is overplayed...the US will be oil independent soon...they can really pull the rag on the demand side and let crude slide...If crude slides you will see oil majors postpone their exploration activity.
I think the prospects for Kenya's Eurobond are diminishing everyday...I dont know what took the Treasury so long to float the bond? They will have no one but themselfs to blame if the bond doesnt float.
At the beginning of the year I said the market could slide by 10-15% this year...I'm sticking to this script.
I think we will see a relief rally due to the earnings season...what happens after that will be blood bath....
So when earnings comes...lighten your load on stocks if you have ears. I will only disagree on the US ability to control the crude prices. That clout was lost when the "7 Oil Sisters" as they were known then lost it against the producing countries after a wave of nationalization. The majors in total have booked reserves of less than 10%. On the other hand Saudi which used to cooperate to squeeze the market now minds its own balance sheet. Speculators and I think @hisah knows rule the market and with the expensive Americas oil sands and China's appetite crude prices may never break below 90. As for KK benefitting without a refinery I still cant get it! But I will hitch on the general sentiments! Apart form one or two long long term counters. I will off load with the earning season. Once the US starts fracking properly, demand for the commodity will be diminished. The only positive side for us is reduced costs of the petroleum in the country and not export (sadly all our neighbours have it so are the closer ones across the ocean). The US is already fracking properly si ati wameanza. Look at states such as N. Dakota http://www.forbes.com/si...c-boom-in-north-dakota/ oil money everywhere that hasnt stopped the states from getting the Dirty Oil from Alberta. The demand of oil grows by the day while its non renewable resource. By the way I live in one mafuta nation and yea maisha ni tamu "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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short termers will look back and wonder "what did I miss" Venezuela did +357% last year. imagine missing such a rally The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Metasploit wrote:Bargain window closing!
I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11
Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed.
All in all thanks to the sellers!
And watch Kenya Re (the volumes) The bellweather rebounds and on solid demand confirming the floor and change in trend! Still discount trading on some of the counters!dont know why the fear on KCB trading at a quick > 15% gain
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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