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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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Metasploit wrote:Kenya airways and ARM are like Afghanistan!No one wants to go there today even on a free ticket!
the 12 support level breaks on KQ!
@Obiero this thing has confused 11 ksh with 19 ksh @metaspoilt wazuans are hidden in bankers watching through a small open hole to see what arsenal Mr market is hitting them with. nearly every one is affected ur just a composed one. waiting Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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PPT, where are we @ next week? :)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year. Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest. No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass. @aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards. Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing. ** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.** Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Mwenye macho haambiwi tazama
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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hisah wrote:That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.
Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.
No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.
@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.
Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.
** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**
Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards... Interesting perspective. Meanwhile, one research note review of yesterday indicating we should "expect a more volatile market but the upward trend should be maintained with a 4600 – 5900 trading range for the year." Please expound on the hydrocarbon play.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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This is when i become a drunkard "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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If the house owner knew,the thief would not have striked and thats how mr.market catches us. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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ecstacy wrote:PPT, where are we @ next week? :) What's that? PPT! We are saving for the EuroBond... The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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The big boys must be watching to shake out panic sellers then decide next play next week. The value of shares traded today Vs yesterday should be an indicator when we have the figures.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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hisah wrote:Bearish against 180 (double top) on the FTSE NSE15 index weekly chart. The weekly has been toppish since the Nov 24 2013 upthrust week with the roof at 184. Likely for the entire Jan 2014 rally to be erased all the way down to Dec 2013 levels around 165 - 168. If this play out the same will be mirrored on NSE20 which means it'll lose the 5000 handle. Interesting this is happening just before results check in as well as the eurobond uptake. Reminds me of the infamous call back in Feb 2011 when I saw banks selloff hard even after announcing rosy 2010 results and USD went to 90/- and above...  Risk management will be key. Volatility is coming back... Check post #2 - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=11082
Actually, if it drops to the 165 level (the neck line), it would confirm a double top. After that a drop equal to the height of the two tops would be seen. A break of 165 if definitely something to worry about. 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.
Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.
No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.
@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.
Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.
** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**
Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards... #Word @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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#TeamNBK holding strong. Year of the laggards people. I can also see MSC fighting ANY Ksh. 2/= bob vibes 
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 4/23/2013 Posts: 14
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Quite fascinated by this current market trends The closer you look the less you see
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Bargain window closing! I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11 Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed. All in all thanks to the sellers! And watch Kenya Re (the volumes)
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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Metasploit wrote:Bargain window closing!
I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11
Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed.
All in all thanks to the sellers!
And watch Kenya Re (the volumes) Interesting~! Any relationship with Osuji?  The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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jerry wrote:Metasploit wrote:Bargain window closing!
I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11
Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed.
All in all thanks to the sellers!
And watch Kenya Re (the volumes) Interesting~! Any relationship with Osuji? is it timing the market
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I think to re-balance the view on the Eurobond, we should also consider QE from the BoJ, ECB & BoE.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Will be interesting to see if EABL closes below 220 - 230 levels as the shaking continues. I don't think the rally is done on this counter. At some point it'll retest 400 again and head higher in future. People should be excited with corrections? This is where you make your money, buying discounts on quality counters always offers nice bargains. My watchlist so far - WTK, NMG, EABL, mpesa bank, KPLC, TCL and now adding MSC after yesterday's vol spike and USDKES cross. Buys for 2014 are NMG and WTK joining KQ (late 2013 buy) as posted on the wazua group as the first defence lines for this volatility pending the eurobond outcome. But that nice US Q4 GDP print might spook the eurobond uptake with a stronger USD. If USDKES breaks above 87.50, I'll get more defensive and will be forced to sell some counters when that time comes. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The Merchant wrote:hisah wrote:Bearish against 180 (double top) on the FTSE NSE15 index weekly chart. The weekly has been toppish since the Nov 24 2013 upthrust week with the roof at 184. Likely for the entire Jan 2014 rally to be erased all the way down to Dec 2013 levels around 165 - 168. If this play out the same will be mirrored on NSE20 which means it'll lose the 5000 handle. Interesting this is happening just before results check in as well as the eurobond uptake. Reminds me of the infamous call back in Feb 2011 when I saw banks selloff hard even after announcing rosy 2010 results and USD went to 90/- and above... Risk management will be key. Volatility is coming back... Check post #2 - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=11082
Actually, if it drops to the 165 level (the neck line), it would confirm a double top. After that a drop equal to the height of the two tops would be seen. A break of 165 if definitely something to worry about. @Merchant - How about this ATM on the FTSE NSE15. Redness back to May 2013 levels during the funny euphoria period post elections. The neckline has been tested today as Jan closes. Feb should see the haircuts continue.
 $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think to re-balance the view on the Eurobond, we should also consider QE from the BoJ, ECB & BoE. @hisah I'm looking at it from a perspective that there must be yield seekers out there. So if they have devaluing Yens, Euros & or GBPs, then why not buy into a USD frontier sovereign bond and make 6-7%? Especially one with a strong emerging mineral & hydrocarbon play? Glorified by the IMF too. (distorts the Junk Bond look in the long run - tenor) What do you think?
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