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FED Taper Implications on NSE
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hisah
#21 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 4:13:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
This Bernanke fellow just lost me a cool amount... Who knew taper would be good news to Mr Market?? d'oh!

Santa rally... Always dread such market cheers. A down move is on the cards likely in Q1. Low likely around March-April.

This is why I highly suspect a sucker rally in Jan/Feb that will trap (bull trap) late comers in many markets.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Candlesticks
#22 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 7:38:50 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2013
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
This Bernanke fellow just lost me a cool amount... Who knew taper would be good news to Mr Market?? d'oh!


I expected a forward Guidance statement yesterday shock on me!! i also thought tapering was bad news but meeen!!!!!
"'Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - Oscar Wilde.
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Cde Monomotapa
#23 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 7:44:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Candlesticks wrote:
guru267 wrote:
This Bernanke fellow just lost me a cool amount... Who knew taper would be good news to Mr Market?? d'oh!


I expected a forward Guidance statement yesterday shock on me!! i also thought tapering was bad news but meeen!!!!!


@Candlesticks

Crucially, the Fed softened the blow by making its forward guidance even more dovish.

"It likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the committee's 2 percent longer-run goal," the Fed statement said.

Alan Ruskin, global head of G10 currency strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York, noted the Fed's forecasts for the funds rate had also been trimmed out to the end of 2016.

"This is a very dovish taper-lite where the Fed has done its utmost to provide an offset with forward guidance," said Ruskin.

"It tends to elevate the importance of the inflation rate in decision making should it be meaningfully undershooting target, which is very constructive for risky assets." http://www.reuters.com/a...al-idUSL3N0JX41R20131219
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#24 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 11:34:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
guru267 wrote:
For today's trade I'm long EUR/USD at 1.37476 with a small AUD/USD short hedge!

No tapering will be bad for the USD in the short term..

Hope you had a stop loss for the EUR/USD pair,otherwiseSad
@SufficientlyP
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Cde Monomotapa
#25 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 11:45:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
[quote=Cde Monomotapa]Mmm..Interesting: Ex-Barclays boss raises $325 million with new venture, looks to Africa http://www.reuters.com/a...o-idUSBRE9BG0BH20131217

http://blogs.wsj.com/mon...anking-frontier-africa/[/quote]

Zimbabwean company, Brainworks Capital, to advise Bob Diamond's fund http://www.herald.co.zw/...-advise-on-africa-fund/

LOL!
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guru267
#26 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 1:56:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
guru267 wrote:
For today's trade I'm long EUR/USD at 1.37476 with a small AUD/USD short hedge!

No tapering will be bad for the USD in the short term..

Hope you had a stop loss for the EUR/USD pair,otherwiseSad


I lost 50 pips before I closed Sad But it would have been 300 pips without the AUD/USD hedge! Applause

I rarely use stop loss/gain
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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SittingPretty
#27 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2014 5:05:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
This Bernanke fellow just lost me a cool amount... Who knew taper would be good news to Mr Market?? d'oh!

Santa rally... Always dread such market cheers. A down move is on the cards likely in Q1. Low likely around March-April.

This is why I highly suspect a sucker rally in Jan/Feb that will trap (bull trap) late comers in many markets.

@hisah with the taper story taking center stage again. I am looking at the KE/USD activity, does it have anything to do with the upped foreign sales. Are we there yet???
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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hisah
#28 Posted : Wednesday, January 29, 2014 5:19:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
SittingPretty wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
This Bernanke fellow just lost me a cool amount... Who knew taper would be good news to Mr Market?? d'oh!

Santa rally... Always dread such market cheers. A down move is on the cards likely in Q1. Low likely around March-April.

This is why I highly suspect a sucker rally in Jan/Feb that will trap (bull trap) late comers in many markets.

@hisah with the taper story taking center stage again. I am looking at the KE/USD activity, does it have anything to do with the upped foreign sales. Are we there yet???

Eurobond is the KES saviour if the uptake will be strong. USDKES line in the sand is 87.50/- for bulls while 84 for bears. Break above 87.50 targets 90/- and break below 84 targets 80.

Waiting to see inflation figures going forward with food security alerts already on just like 2011. That eurobond will give CBK ammo to keep CBR tight as well as USDKES locked if they get their loot.

I dread if the eurobond uptake is lukewarm. KES will take it hard in the chin and NSE will feel that effect.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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SittingPretty
#29 Posted : Thursday, January 30, 2014 2:19:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
hisah wrote:
SittingPretty wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
This Bernanke fellow just lost me a cool amount... Who knew taper would be good news to Mr Market?? d'oh!

Santa rally... Always dread such market cheers. A down move is on the cards likely in Q1. Low likely around March-April.

This is why I highly suspect a sucker rally in Jan/Feb that will trap (bull trap) late comers in many markets.

@hisah with the taper story taking center stage again. I am looking at the KE/USD activity, does it have anything to do with the upped foreign sales. Are we there yet???

Eurobond is the KES saviour if the uptake will be strong. USDKES line in the sand is 87.50/- for bulls while 84 for bears. Break above 87.50 targets 90/- and break below 84 targets 80.

Waiting to see inflation figures going forward with food security alerts already on just like 2011. That eurobond will give CBK ammo to keep CBR tight as well as USDKES locked if they get their loot.

I dread if the eurobond uptake is lukewarm. KES will take it hard in the chin and NSE will feel that effect.

And there is blood all over the place and not just the NSE!!!
Am -Ve on 80% of my counters is it time to run, short sell!!! or is this just a small flu?
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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The optimist
#30 Posted : Wednesday, March 19, 2014 11:15:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
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hisah
#31 Posted : Thursday, March 20, 2014 7:38:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
SittingPretty wrote:
hisah wrote:
SittingPretty wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
This Bernanke fellow just lost me a cool amount... Who knew taper would be good news to Mr Market?? d'oh!

Santa rally... Always dread such market cheers. A down move is on the cards likely in Q1. Low likely around March-April.

This is why I highly suspect a sucker rally in Jan/Feb that will trap (bull trap) late comers in many markets.

@hisah with the taper story taking center stage again. I am looking at the KE/USD activity, does it have anything to do with the upped foreign sales. Are we there yet???

Eurobond is the KES saviour if the uptake will be strong. USDKES line in the sand is 87.50/- for bulls while 84 for bears. Break above 87.50 targets 90/- and break below 84 targets 80.

Waiting to see inflation figures going forward with food security alerts already on just like 2011. That eurobond will give CBK ammo to keep CBR tight as well as USDKES locked if they get their loot.

I dread if the eurobond uptake is lukewarm. KES will take it hard in the chin and NSE will feel that effect.

And there is blood all over the place and not just the NSE!!!
Am -Ve on 80% of my counters is it time to run, short sell!!! or is this just a small flu?

Oops. Missed this query. For KE eurobond is still key. But it's interesting to see NSE chop around (up and down) to nowhere just like most global equities. KE inflation continues ticking up. Current gok wage cut fight paints a gloomy picture as industrial counters continue to release lousy results. If NSE bulls are to take the day, 5200 must be broken up with solid pressure. FTSE KE15 must also break above 180 with force.
I'm defensive in 2014 meaning I'm willing to cut losses faster as a trader.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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