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Expensive Mistakes or an Education?
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Saturday, June 08, 2013 1:03:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
KPLC - I was a fan. Then came government interference via ERC & Ruto.
During the 2010 Rights Issue, KPLC stated in the Information Memorandum that it was due its triennial rate adjustment [typically upwards because of a weak KES & high inflation since 2008]. GoK also took control (51%) of KPLC.

Rights Issue Price 19.50 & currently at 16.50

The ERC came out with some story about not causing pain to consumers. Populism driven by politics. KPLC waited until 2013. After the elections & when Uhuruto was firmly in place, Ruto makes another populist decision to suspend the Rate Increase.

Actions Taken: Bought during the Rights Issue. Sold at a 20% loss even after the 1:8 bonus & 3 years of pain and opportunity losses. leaving it under the mattress would have been better.

Lesson: Do not buy into government promises. If the government can regulate it, let it go. There may be instances where it makes sense e.g. it is incredibly cheap due to a 'government discount' but generally stay clear. The next KPLC Rights had better be very, very cheap or I am staying out.

KQ - The Rights Issue barely made the cut. And that was after the provisions in the Information Memorandum were rescinded. KQ made a KES 6bn loss in 6 months. The largest loss ever. The Board had fewer than 30,000 shares this made much more in free flights, perks & fees than their ownership.

Rights Issue Price 14.00 & currently at 11.00

Actions Taken: Did not buy the Rights shares. Sold out the shareholding at a loss at 13.70 but no regrets. The cash was re-deployed into much better opportunities.

Lesson: Do not buy into a firm that relies on a personality cult (Titus Naikuni), low employee ownership/participation, no ESOP, no shares owned by Management/Board & strong unions. Also be wary of huge Rights Issues 16:5 was too large for success.

Olympia - The Rights Issue in 2007 was at 14/- to expand in Kenya & into into SA. Poorly managed by the CEO cum dealmaker cum bon vivant. It was a 3:1 Rights Issue & barely made the 100% cut. The Management & Board had a significant stake but the intentions were suspect. A further analysis of the books after better reporting standards were instituted revealed loans to insiders including the CEO & his family. The Chairman, CEO & their families did not pay cash but 'exchanged' assets for shares.

Rights Issue Price 14.00 & currently at 5.00 (with spotty dividends)

Actions Taken: Bought into the Rights. Sold off some at a huge loss. Low liquidity. Selling as & when possible.

Lesson: If the Management looks shady stay away. Warren Buffett says if you don't trust Management do NOT buy coz there are always skeletons. I overlooked the past indiscretions e.g. insider dealings because of greed or rose-colored glasses. In retrospect, the insider dealings (loans to the CEO & his family) should have been the stinky poop I should have more attention to.

KenolKobil: A massive loss in 2012 relating primarily to hedges & low margins due to price controls. Poor controls or speculative bets made by the management. The constant battles with GoK are tiring but it also underlines the risk of regulation by populist governments. I bought in when there were no price controls. I should have sold once they came in.

Actions Taken: After the price collapsed, I bought more. Partly due to speculation that Puma will buy them out. That said, at the current price of 10.20 it looks very attractive despite constant battles with GoK institutions like ERC, KPRL & KPC. Management owns shares & the CEO has a 4% stake via options. The Board has representatives of the majority shareholders.

Lesson: Do not rely on acquisitions to sell out. If the firm cannot stand on its own without an acquisition then stay away. A personality cult also pervades the firm but there seems to be a moderation after the 2012 results. I expect 2013 to be a year of consolidation & 2014 the firm is back in play. I am NOT relying on the 'potential acquisition' but the firm itself. That said, if the ERC/GoK squeezes KK (or other OMCs) further, I will bail out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
young
#2 Posted : Saturday, June 08, 2013 1:10:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Good points.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Mukiri
#3 Posted : Saturday, June 08, 2013 3:14:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
@VVS What have your losses been? Six digit figures?

What are your net figures since you started investing?

Proverbs 19:21
murchr
#4 Posted : Saturday, June 08, 2013 5:59:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Good lessons @VVS
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#5 Posted : Sunday, June 09, 2013 12:37:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
There are no mistakes, just lessons.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#6 Posted : Sunday, June 09, 2013 3:07:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
lessons that Will reap huge dividends in future
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Siringi
#7 Posted : Sunday, June 09, 2013 7:33:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/8/2013
Posts: 2,517
SGL broker bought @50 current price 20 something
Lesson; just because you watch KTN and read The Standard that does not translate into dividends
AccessKenya @ 23 currently trading around 3-5 . Thinking of asking Somen for data bundles in lieu
Lesson : stay away from fads
Cfcstanbic @132 i do.t know what bhang' my broker was smoking told tis bank of the future.bank si hotel if bank has fancy reception serves coffee n snacks with staff speaking funny English run away with your money !
National bank 50 down to 20 :-lesson stay clear of sirkali mixed stocks
Kq i understand nyaikuni invests in cows wish i had done the same¡ 110 to 11 bob proud to fly the national carrier sponsoring Rugby Safari 7's hapa hakuna pesa
Lesson -ukiona sirkali mingi please beat corner . I love sevens jersey
Kenya power: whenever i get my monthly reddy kilowatt bills i console my self it shall come back via the other pocket
LESSON find out how management is hired before you put your moneyin a stock.
"😖😡KQ makes money for everyone except the shareholder 😏😏 " overheard in Wazua
mwekez@ji
#8 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 11:09:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
Good lessons @VVS

mwekez@ji
#9 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 11:10:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
When reading this NBK Rights Issue came to mind cc @Cde and NBK fans
Mukiri
#10 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 11:42:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Siringi wrote:
SGL broker bought @50 current price 20 something
Lesson; just because you watch KTN and read The Standard that does not translate into dividends
AccessKenya @ 23 currently trading around 3-5 . Thinking of asking Somen for data bundles in lieu
Lesson : stay away from fads
Cfcstanbic @132 i do.t know what bhang' my broker was smoking told tis bank of the future.bank si hotel if bank has fancy reception serves coffee n snacks with staff speaking funny English run away with your money !
National bank 50 down to 20 :-lesson stay clear of sirkali mixed stocks
Kq i understand nyaikuni invests in cows wish i had done the same¡ 110 to 11 bob proud to fly the national carrier sponsoring Rugby Safari 7's hapa hakuna pesa
Lesson -ukiona sirkali mingi please beat corner . I love sevens jersey
Kenya power: whenever i get my monthly reddy kilowatt bills i console my self it shall come back via the other pocket
LESSON find out how management is hired before you put your moneyin a stock.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Pole Mbloo. Couldn't resist the chuckle. Si you know misery likes company?

I honestly think some fund managers are pure evil! Moreso where the account is not reflected in CDSC. Where shares are traded collectively in the firm's name eg CoopTrust. They'll dump 'bad' counters onto your account and ask you utadowhat?

Proverbs 19:21
tom_boy
#11 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 5:30:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
@siringi, I think the biggest lesson from you is "Dont rely on your broker to make you any money. They always serve their interests first" .

Reminds me of a time back in late 90's when ARM was trading at 7 bob. I had just finished reading a book on TA and the chart had formed a perfect pattern for advance. I placed an order at 7.50 which was not filled for almost 2 weeks. The price short up to 14 bob and my order was promptly filled. That was the last time I used Nyaga Stockbrokers .
. . . . thankfully.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
murchr
#12 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 6:24:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
tom_boy wrote:
@siringi, I think the biggest lesson from you is "Dont rely on your broker to make you any money. They always serve their interests first" .

Reminds me of a time back in late 90's when ARM was trading at 7 bob. I had just finished reading a book on TA and the chart had formed a perfect pattern for advance. I placed an order at 7.50 which was not filled for almost 2 weeks. The price short up to 14 bob and my order was promptly filled. That was the last time I used Nyaga Stockbrokers .
. . . . thankfully.


d'oh! d'oh! He bought and sold it to you at a profit, thank God for technology
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Caramba
#13 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 9:59:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/27/2010
Posts: 266
Location: Nairobi
Siringi wrote:
SGL broker bought @50 current price 20 something
Lesson; just because you watch KTN and read The Standard that does not translate into dividends
AccessKenya @ 23 currently trading around 3-5 . Thinking of asking Somen for data bundles in lieu
Lesson : stay away from fads
Cfcstanbic @132 i do.t know what bhang' my broker was smoking told tis bank of the future.bank si hotel if bank has fancy reception serves coffee n snacks with staff speaking funny English run away with your money !
National bank 50 down to 20 :-lesson stay clear of sirkali mixed stocks
Kq i understand nyaikuni invests in cows wish i had done the same¡ 110 to 11 bob proud to fly the national carrier sponsoring Rugby Safari 7's hapa hakuna pesa
Lesson -ukiona sirkali mingi please beat corner . I love sevens jersey
Kenya power: whenever i get my monthly reddy kilowatt bills i console my self it shall come back via the other pocket
LESSON find out how management is hired before you put your moneyin a stock.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Pole Mzee.
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 1:08:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
KQ announces 10.8bn Loss BT. Price falls towards 10.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 5:24:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
Let's take stock since 8 June 2013 ... There has been a 'boom' since 8 June 2013 to 24 Jan 2014:

KPLC: Was 16.50 and now 15
KQ: Was 11 and now 13 [Nothing to write home about when banks lend at 20% pa]
Olympia: Was 5 and now 4.50
KK: Was 10.20 and now 9.95

So the laggards remain laggards while others have shone:

Safaricom 7.20 to 12.80
Britam 8.45 to 19.25
HFCK 26.75 to 34
And many more... What's the common thread? Ownership by the Board, Management & Staff.

*Olympia has owners among the Board but I doubt their integrity with insider loans and multiple intra-company transactions with entities owned in part or whole by the Board!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#16 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 7:32:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,555
Location: nairobi
Siringi wrote:
SGL broker bought @50 current price 20 something
Lesson; just because you watch KTN and read The Standard that does not translate into dividends
AccessKenya @ 23 currently trading around 3-5 . Thinking of asking Somen for data bundles in lieu
Lesson : stay away from fads
Cfcstanbic @132 i do.t know what bhang' my broker was smoking told tis bank of the future.bank si hotel if bank has fancy reception serves coffee n snacks with staff speaking funny English run away with your money !
National bank 50 down to 20 :-lesson stay clear of sirkali mixed stocks
Kq i understand nyaikuni invests in cows wish i had done the same¡ 110 to 11 bob proud to fly the national carrier sponsoring Rugby Safari 7's hapa hakuna pesa
Lesson -ukiona sirkali mingi please beat corner . I love sevens jersey
Kenya power: whenever i get my monthly reddy kilowatt bills i console my self it shall come back via the other pocket
LESSON find out how management is hired before you put your moneyin a stock.

lol @data bundles in lieu

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
MaichBlack
#17 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 1:52:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
Siringi wrote:

Kq i understand nyaikuni invests in cows wish i had done the same¡ 110 to 11 bob proud to fly the national carrier sponsoring Rugby Safari 7's hapa hakuna pesa

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

That's a funny one!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
timuka
#18 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 1:59:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/21/2013
Posts: 427
MaichBlack wrote:
Siringi wrote:

Kq i understand nyaikuni invests in cows wish i had done the same¡ 110 to 11 bob proud to fly the national carrier sponsoring Rugby Safari 7's hapa hakuna pesa

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

That's a funny one!!!



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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