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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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"Keep a close eye on China: it is on the cusp between the end of the leverage cycle (where as we reported over the past two days, it has been pumping bank assets at the ridiculous pace of $3.5 trillion per year) and on the verge of having its debt bubble bursting. What happens then is unclear." http://www.zerohedge.com...erage-cycle-you-are-hereYou dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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Europe is now paying the piper for rushing into a monetary union without federalisation of member states and consolidation of debt. The EAC Monetary Union should pay attention to Christine Lagarde. By the time the EAC Monetary Union is launched, the Euro may have cracked or ceased to exist. "Nairobi — Visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde is now warning Kenya against rushing to implement the East African Community Monetary Union. Speaking to a section of the private sector on Monday, the IMF boss said the EAC is not yet ready for the move and needed to address key issues before they unite their currencies...." Read more: http://allafrica.com/stories/201401062595.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Gerson Lerhman Group, Daewoo, SAC capital, Blackstone, Carlyle Group, Apollo etc. It'll get interesting very soon in the markets as volatility makes a come back... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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Spike in Gold on 01/06/2014 was apparently not a fat finger incident. Nanex reports that they detected 9 seperate sell orders of exactly 338 contracts each....... You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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It won't end well...   $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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 $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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IMF Management Approves a Six-Month Extension of the Staff-Monitored Program for Zimbabwe http://www.imf.org/exter.../sec/pr/2014/pr1409.htm
#HouseKeeping
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Watching this movie silently...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Quote:Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA)’s surprise announcement yesterday that fourth-quarter earnings would fall to the lowest since 2009 showed the rising cost of developing new fields has cut into profit. While Brent oil prices have spent three straight years above $100 a barrel, getting crude out of the ground is only getting more expensive.
“Van Beurden has a tougher long term test ahead than just measuring what lies beneath but how to keep a thorough control on the costs of extracting what lies beneath,” said Neil Shah, an analyst at Edison Investment Research Ltd. “If Shell catches a cold the rest of the oil sector will always wonder if they will catch flu.”
Shell isn’t the only top-five oil company fighting to maintain profitability. Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil producer, and France’s Total SA have said fourth-quarter profit will drop. As well as higher costs, oil producers are grappling with weak profits from refining oil.
While Brent crude prices more than doubled to $105 a barrel since the start of 2009, the top five oil and gas companies have gained just 16 percent since then, compared with an 87 percent increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
http://www.bloomberg.com...-even-at-100-crude.html
The stark divergence between major oil stocks and the overall frothy markets. Divergence also noted between commodos and the overall frothy global equities since 2011. Commodos always give a better measure of the economy's engine. The car has raced quite a distance with the driver telling the passengers that the engine is not spluttering, but just humming in a different way... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Yuan aka Renminbi... The loudest signal so far, but the least seen.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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How about Alcoa (Base metal: Aluminium, longtime barometer of the NYSE earnings season) being ejected out the Index? That was a loud but hush-hushed signal too 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Quote:The fact that central bankers around the world have cut interest rates 515 times in the past six years times, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, is also very unusual.
Back in 1987, yields on the 10-year Treasury note rose sharply, from around 7% at the start of the year to 8% and then 9% that summer as stocks kept rising. By the time the Dow crashed that October the yield on the 10-year Treasury note had topped 10%.
 $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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"I have scoured the major global stock market indices to uncover candidates for the title “Breakout Kings”. These are the select few that have or are just about to break above their consolidation phases most of which have prevailed from the Dot Com Bubble. First on stage is the S&P 500 Index. The breakout was affirmed in August 2014 because the monthly closing figure was just above the blue breakout line. We could witness a retest of the breakout line, a consolidation and blast off thereafter..." Read more: http://www.scribd.com/do...00854766/Breakout-Kings
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Watching this movie silently... Uptrend broken...
All US indices in the red in 2014...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Watching this movie silently... Uptrend broken...
All US indices in the red in 2014...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101361746"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@murchr - I expect S.Korea to feature in the headlines this year... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:@murchr - I expect S.Korea to feature in the headlines this year... I guess that is where the money is going to "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:@murchr - I expect S.Korea to feature in the headlines this year... I guess that is where the money is going to Nop. Their money masters will likely go the india way as the won gets hammered vs USD. Kospi too will selloff properly...
Emerging markets ccys will probably get a proper hammering as volatility makes a comeback this yr. The rupee and rand got it in the chin last yr. Still very weak to date. Now turkish lira, argentine peso, skorea won, thai baht, indonesian ccy etc are getting whacked. Frontier markets those without enough fx reserves will suddenly join the party. KE already saw the preview in 2011.
I'll repeat again, risk management is key this year as volatility presents its ugliness...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@kk - Have you been following the withdrawal restrictions drama unfolding since a certain govt shutdown in Oct last yr? JPM then now HSBC... Cyprus bail in was a solid sneak preview. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25861717
Are bank runs about to pop up soon on a wide scale? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/13/2006 Posts: 551 Location: Nairobi
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"The previous article Breakout Kings provided the 22nd of January as a turning point for the DOW Jones Industrial Index. On the 23rd, the Argentine Peso experienced its largest one-day decline in 12 years. The country’s central bank did not step in to cushion the decline as it sought to preserve its dwindling foreign currency reserves. Argentina’s sneeze caused a flu outbreak in Turkey, South Africa, Ukraine and Venezuela...." Read more: http://www.scribd.com/doc/202290060/Falling-Stars
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