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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@young. I cannot disagree with you on the delicious bluechips. I have seen it for myself, these stocks keep rising as people keep wondering why, they are darlings to foreign investors, they are market leaders and keep breaking profits through the roof. Ill be waiting for bluechips in the next cycle. currently the best of the bluechips are: safcom EABL KCB Equity NMG ARM The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Aguytrying wrote:@young. I cannot disagree with you on the delicious bluechips. I have seen it for myself, these stocks keep rising as people keep wondering why, they are darlings to foreign investors, they are market leaders and keep breaking profits through the roof. Ill be waiting for bluechips in the next cycle. currently the best of the bluechips are:
safcom
EABL
KCB
Equity
NMG
ARM But you omitted the 2014 star of the banking sector HFCK ? Star of the Insurance sector Panafric? The rejuvinated Centum ? Don't mind me you may have strong and cogent reasons to avoid them (HFCK, Panafric). I am not in centum because of their dividend policy, as while waiting, I expect reasonable dividends. 2004 -2009 I was wobbling here and there it was 2010 -date (3 years +) when I strictly positioned on blue chips no matter the attraction of others that I realised a consistent growth i my portfolio. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Quote from @Agyuytrying in another post on HFCK thread " I'm not in love with the stock, I'm in love with the growth of the profits" I fully concur The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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young wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@young. I cannot disagree with you on the delicious bluechips. I have seen it for myself, these stocks keep rising as people keep wondering why, they are darlings to foreign investors, they are market leaders and keep breaking profits through the roof. Ill be waiting for bluechips in the next cycle. currently the best of the bluechips are:
safcom
EABL
KCB
Equity
NMG
ARM But you omitted the 2014 star of the banking sector HFCK ? Star of the Insurance sector Panafric? The rejuvinated Centum ? Don't mind me you may have strong and cogent reasons to avoid them (HFCK, Panafric). I am not in centum because of their dividend policy, as while waiting, I expect reasonable dividends. 2004 -2009 I was wobbling here and there it was 2010 -date (3 years +) when I strictly positioned on blue chips no matter the attraction of others that I realised a consistent growth i my portfolio. To me these are the bluest of the bluechips. Foreign darlings, market leader, superbrands. These are the shares enabling you to x10 your initial capital investment. HFCK, CENTUM are tier 2 to me. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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young wrote:Quote from @Agyuytrying in another post on HFCK
thread
" I'm not in love with the stock, I'm in love with the growth of the profits"
I fully concur Check out this growth, followed by a very ambitious prediction for 2016. Which if really there is a housing supply mismatch and company is run well( like it is currently), should happen. Aguytrying #709 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 2:32:39 PM
Quote
Rank: Elder
Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 2,961
Location: Nairobi
Ireri is doing a fantastic job and will still do more, how many other companies in the NSe can boast of 50% plus growth for 3 years ? Yes he can do more, and he will do more. What more can you ask of a CEO, look at his track record in numbers...
HFCK PBT (millions)
2006- 127
2007- 131
2008- 196
2009- 354
2010- 560
2011- 975
2012- 907
2013- 1.3 billion (prediction, with estimate 50% growth)
what more do you want from this man. That's 10 times growth in earnings over 8 yrs.
Aguytrying #714 Posted : Saturday, November 02, 2013 7:19:29 AM
Quote
Rank: Elder
Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 2,961
Location: Nairobi
CAGR from 2006-2011 is 41%!!! extrapolate this from 2012 to 2016, since housing demand mismatch and the pbt of 2016 could be. 5.2 billion if 975m is your base.
gives eps of 22.75.
value with pe of 12. target is 273.00.
.....a ten bagger ceteris paribus esp CAGR.The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Aguytrying wrote:young wrote:Quote from @Agyuytrying in another post on HFCK
thread
" I'm not in love with the stock, I'm in love with the growth of the profits"
I fully concur Check out this growth, followed by a very ambitious prediction for 2016. Which if really there is a housing supply mismatch and company is run well( like it is currently), should happen. Aguytrying #709 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 2:32:39 PM
Quote
Rank: Elder
Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 2,961
Location: Nairobi
Ireri is doing a fantastic job and will still do more, how many other companies in the NSe can boast of 50% plus growth for 3 years ? Yes he can do more, and he will do more. What more can you ask of a CEO, look at his track record in numbers...
HFCK PBT (millions)
2006- 127
2007- 131
2008- 196
2009- 354
2010- 560
2011- 975
2012- 907
2013- 1.3 billion (prediction, with estimate 50% growth)
what more do you want from this man. That's 10 times growth in earnings over 8 yrs.
Aguytrying #714 Posted : Saturday, November 02, 2013 7:19:29 AM
Quote
Rank: Elder
Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 2,961
Location: Nairobi
CAGR from 2006-2011 is 41%!!! extrapolate this from 2012 to 2016, since housing demand mismatch and the pbt of 2016 could be. 5.2 billion if 975m is your base.
gives eps of 22.75.
value with pe of 12. target is 273.00.
.....a ten bagger ceteris paribus esp CAGR. This is a good insight and triple vote of confidence on HFCK up to 2016 for a start The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Metasploit wrote:dunkang wrote:Metasploit wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Metasploit wrote:Foreign comeback in full gear.
Watch how selected counters will cruise.
Eyes on Safaricom and Centum Certainly a Great start for these two. Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory! Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy. Lets see how it closes the week Just hoping they are not "HELLO" Foreigners Safaricom:High of 11.30.Very good and consistent demand with no supply.I dont know where it is going to The Taper fears did a good shakeout on Mpesa bank. 12 here we come # cc sufficiently Philanga Thinks also looking good on centum and Britam. Waiting for the buy signal on Home Afrik. Mpesa breakout yesterday was amazing. Foreign bids unrelenting. New highs  As for Britam and centum, these ones just keep going up. A Great day it was at NSE! Lets see what today has to offer! #PositioningForTheGreatJanuaryHarvest @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/14/2012 Posts: 577 Location: Nairobi Kenya
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Metasploit wrote:dunkang wrote:Metasploit wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Metasploit wrote:Foreign comeback in full gear.
Watch how selected counters will cruise.
Eyes on Safaricom and Centum Certainly a Great start for these two. Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory! Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy. Lets see how it closes the week Just hoping they are not "HELLO" Foreigners Safaricom:High of 11.30.Very good and consistent demand with no supply.I dont know where it is going to The Taper fears did a good shakeout on Mpesa bank. 12 here we come # cc sufficiently Philanga Thinks also looking good on centum and Britam. Waiting for the buy signal on Home Afrik. Mpesa breakout yesterday was amazing. Foreign bids unrelenting. New highs As for Britam and centum, these ones just keep going up. A Great day it was at NSE! Lets see what today has to offer! #PositioningForTheGreatJanuaryHarvest Mpesa will touch 15 at this rate! Glad am in the bus! Before I die - i will touch the sky!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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young wrote:Aguytrying wrote:young wrote:Quote from @Agyuytrying in another post on HFCK
thread
" I'm not in love with the stock, I'm in love with the growth of the profits"
I fully concur Check out this growth, followed by a very ambitious prediction for 2016. Which if really there is a housing supply mismatch and company is run well( like it is currently), should happen. Aguytrying #709 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 2:32:39 PM
Quote
Rank: Elder
Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 2,961
Location: Nairobi
Ireri is doing a fantastic job and will still do more, how many other companies in the NSe can boast of 50% plus growth for 3 years ? Yes he can do more, and he will do more. What more can you ask of a CEO, look at his track record in numbers...
HFCK PBT (millions)
2006- 127
2007- 131
2008- 196
2009- 354
2010- 560
2011- 975
2012- 907
2013- 1.3 billion (prediction, with estimate 50% growth)
what more do you want from this man. That's 10 times growth in earnings over 8 yrs.
Aguytrying #714 Posted : Saturday, November 02, 2013 7:19:29 AM
Quote
Rank: Elder
Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 2,961
Location: Nairobi
CAGR from 2006-2011 is 41%!!! extrapolate this from 2012 to 2016, since housing demand mismatch and the pbt of 2016 could be. 5.2 billion if 975m is your base.
gives eps of 22.75.
value with pe of 12. target is 273.00.
.....a ten bagger ceteris paribus esp CAGR. This is a good insight and triple vote of confidence on HFCK up to 2016 for a start That is why Equity owns a substantial chunk of HFCK.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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Hfck the darling of many. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Hfck the darling of many. What's going on today?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I'm waiting to see how 5000 - 5500 levels will be dealt with by end of Q1 2014. This resistance forest needs a lot of bid pressure to dismiss. Will foreigners still hold on the bid side in this resistance forest when volatility appears at the global level? The next window is mpesa bank FY announcement on May 12 2014. Very good news will definitely be a distribution event by foreigners if the global markets will still be at these heady heights... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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poundfoolish wrote:mlennyma wrote:Hfck the darling of many. What's going on today? There was some profit taking initially, but demand started building towards closure of the market. upward trend likely to be maintained next week. Could touch a high of 40.
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Rank: Hello Joined: 1/11/2014 Posts: 2
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Any thoughts on kenGen, seems to be bottoming out at support (KES 12) RSI practically 0.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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abi2712 wrote:Any thoughts on kenGen, seems to be bottoming out at support (KES 12) RSI practically 0. Touched a low of 11.85.Testing the 11 levels. Buyers are still uninterested.Unless you want to ride the DCB like the Just ended Equity Bank bounce,this one looks like a falling knife in the short term.
βThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.β
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/24/2010 Posts: 236 Location: nairobi
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Metasploit wrote:abi2712 wrote:Any thoughts on kenGen, seems to be bottoming out at support (KES 12) RSI practically 0. Touched a low of 11.85.Testing the 11 levels. Buyers are still uninterested.Unless you want to ride the DCB like the Just ended Equity Bank bounce,this one looks like a falling knife in the short term. Space to watch 
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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Metasploit wrote:Foreign comeback in full gear.
Watch how selected counters will cruise.
Eyes on Safaricom and Centum How does one get to know the amount of foreign participation at the NSE? ...Please share the link/site. No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Magnate wrote:Metasploit wrote:Foreign comeback in full gear.
Watch how selected counters will cruise.
Eyes on Safaricom and Centum How does one get to know the amount of foreign participation at the NSE? ...Please share the link/site. Subscribe to live.my stocks.co.ke or your broker. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.β β Rashi
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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dunkang wrote:Magnate wrote:Metasploit wrote:Foreign comeback in full gear.
Watch how selected counters will cruise.
Eyes on Safaricom and Centum How does one get to know the amount of foreign participation at the NSE? ...Please share the link/site. Subscribe to live.my stocks.co.ke or your broker. @dunkang..was already subscribed, thanks i got it now. No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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From the look here i see there was lil or no excitement today. This thread is missing @mwekez@ji "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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