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Realities of Forex Investment
mchambuzi
#2391 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 11:10:37 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
There is a large double bottom on usdcad. Resistance next is at 1.0853, break of which targets higher to 1.11 then 1.17. usdjpy is targeting 108, will add to position if it dips to 104 again.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
alutacontinua
#2392 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 12:53:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
@urstill1 the first place to start is www.babypips.com/school have a read through that course a couple of times then open up a demo acc with one of the many brokers in the market (Personally i prefer fxcm.com as they have an easy to use platform and have good spreads) after demo trading (not less than 6 months) depending on how well you have developed a working strategy you can then go live.

@mchambuzi USD strength seems to be the dominating theme this week even ahead of the ECB meeting, FOMC Minutes & NFP. I am also looking to add the CAD weakness. Wish i had read @hisah comment on CHF as i would have entered near the SNB floor @1.2

AUD is looking heavy atm and after the rejection of 0.9 level i am also firmly in the bear camp. Waiting to see how the data releases in the next couple of days as well as how yields will react.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
mchambuzi
#2393 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 6:55:33 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
alutacontinua wrote:
Been looking at order flow trading as a possible strategy to navigate through the expected volatility especially with QE Tapering on the cards in the coming months is there anyone with prior knowledge of this strategy?

Decided to place the first trades of the year today using this method and will try and update as soon as information becomes available.

Here are trades taken today:

There were reports coming through the wire of Real money and macro funds buying USDCAD & GBPCAD and a large number of HF aggressively buying USD across the board during the US session.

USDCAD (+90pips) GBPCAD (+110pips)

Talk earlier of an Asian Sovereign with a bid in EURUSD @ 1.3580

(I am waiting to be filled)

BIS actively bidding @ 0.8910 on AUDUSD

AUDUSD (+20pips)

Want to personally thank all the contributors of this thread for all the insight and trade ideas over the years and hoping to contribute my 2 cents as we revive this thread in the spirit of wazua. Have a prosperous 2014.



Orderflow trading isn't reliable on its own, its best if you combine it with a bit of technical and fundamentals in my opinion. There were times when BIS actively took positions against the market. BIS transacts on behalf of anonymous central banks who might be participating in the market for varied reasons like normal transactions. Central banks also can continue holding losing positions for a very long time since they only have to shift it to a particular reserve account. Then again on macros and hedgefund info, they dont buy or sell like we do, what might be reported as selling might actually be them offloading buy positions. For example if they bought eurusd in the market 100lots, to take profit they sell an equivalent amount in the market which might be reported as them taking a prop sell position and you might find yourself on the wrong side.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
alutacontinua
#2394 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 7:31:29 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
TRADE UPDATE:

Taken Profit on USDCAD @1.08 (+150 pips) will be looking to rejoin the uptrend once the barrier options from 1.0825-1.09 are cleared for a move to 1.1 (long term)

GBPCAD is still open (currently +280pips) closely monitoring PA to determine an exit.

AUDUSD - Looks like the reported BIS bids @0.8910 are supporting the pair thus far. The H4 PA above the ichimoku cloud is also confirming this notion however, the rejection of 0.9 confirms that the bears are still in control. I have exited at break even.

EURUSD - Order filled @ 1.358 with a tight stop @1.355
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
hisah
#2395 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 10:36:46 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Quote:
While advising clients to sell gold and buy Treasuries in Q2 2013, it bought a stunning (and record) 3.7 million shares of GLD. And when Venezuela decided to raise cash by pawning its gold, guess who jumped in to handle the transaction? Yes, they claim the price will fall this year, but with such a slippery track record, it's important to watch what they do and not what they say.


Le Squid and its tricks...

I'm bullish on gold, but exercise caution since this fight is never easy.

My long term XAGUSD was stopped out last year at no cost, but I plan to re-initiate gold & silver position soon. Will update those trade, but long term not short term. 6yrs of funny money games by G10 CBs is too long to sustain the game and bonds are flashing warnings...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mchambuzi
#2396 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 12:25:32 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Crude oil broke an important TL on the daily charts. Waiting to see if it will sustain the break. My strategy intra-day is to sell into rallies.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
mchambuzi
#2397 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 1:21:03 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Chinese central bank (The big panda) seen selling nzdusd, was holding onto audusd, but have decided to sell it as well at .8265 sl .8320. Anyone in this bandwagon? They have a bit of a reputation in fx
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
alutacontinua
#2398 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 2:14:51 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
@mchambuzi thanks on the info about order flow, incorporating price action into my strategy made a huge difference last year and i have stuck to it especially on D1. @urstill1 check out Nial Fuller ;-)

The big panda sold nzdusd @0.8270 also jumped into the bandwagon with an open TP for now. A lot of chatter abt ACB having offers on EURUSD @1.3640 and sovereign demand @1.3525 ahead of ECB press conference. Am sidelines on this one till then.

TRADE UPDATE:

Following th H4 doji i have exited GBPCAD for +322pips ahead of GBP official bank rate data release and ECB Press Conference. I will be looking for possible re-entries in coming sessions.

Stopped out on EURUSD for -30pips. Bears were in full control during yesterdays Europe and US session.
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
mchambuzi
#2399 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 3:08:18 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
I don't think the ECB conference will have any upside risks on eurusd unless they pull off a major surprise, am dovish, US yields are up, should support the dollar imho.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
mchambuzi
#2400 Posted : Thursday, January 09, 2014 5:08:52 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Sitting on oil shorts, hoping there will be no major disruptions, oil supply looks bullish. Eurusd panned out well post ECB conference smile...
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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