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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Aguytrying
#4581 Posted : Friday, January 03, 2014 5:05:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@Hisah.
when you started this thread many didn't agree with you, with the market bullish and folks eyeing profits from current levels. Many wont agree with you now. As for me, Im listening.
I feel i should move part of my investment to bonds coz most shares at the moment are achieving fair valuation and especially banks given the change in rules ahead, even more of a reason.... Now if i can just hit those targets....
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
iller
#4582 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 2:47:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/25/2013
Posts: 552
Location: Asgard
murchr wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Left to hope, wherever you are Cde Youcan'tstopusnow aka @ycsun - Big Up!! Of course, "GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE"


Hope he's ok, unlike him to be this silent

I miss his contributions on matters oil exploration!


I miss them too he's been away since Aug I hope he's fine


No need to worry, he's okay. He passes his regards
Metasploit
#4583 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 12:05:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4584 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 12:54:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!
@SufficientlyP
Kanjora1
#4585 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 2:16:21 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/7/2012
Posts: 39
Grinning broadly for Centum!!
Metasploit
#4586 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 3:23:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!


Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy.

Lets see how it closes the week


“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
dunkang
#4587 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 3:31:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Metasploit wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!


Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy.

Lets see how it closes the week


smile
Just hoping they are not "HELLO" Foreigners
smile
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Metasploit
#4588 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 4:37:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
dunkang wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!


Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy.

Lets see how it closes the week


smile
Just hoping they are not "HELLO" Foreigners
smile


Laughing out loudly!!

Lets see how it closes the week!This will give an indication on the price direction.Low volume might be due to diminished supply.so its important to observe whether supply will build up as price flirts with 11.30-11.50 levels.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
mlennyma
#4589 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 11:49:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,182
Location: nairobi
No much supply across most counters as i thought january would be,the reporting season will be very interesting to watch.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#4590 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 10:18:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
No much supply across most counters as i thought january would be,the reporting season will be very interesting to watch.


In this market you sell a good share you regret almost immediately. I think its time to hold good stocks. just hold. I'm holding hfck, cfc, kk, tpse. even kk has turned green nowadays.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
young
#4591 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 10:58:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Quote:


In this market you sell a good share you regret almost immediately. I think its time to hold good stocks. just hold. I'm holding hfck, cfc, kk, even kk has turned green nowadays.


Talk of the year @Aguy but what is a good
share, they are highly capitalized stocks
likely member of nse 20 and emerging
growth stocks
Name them?
KCB
HFCK
Equity
NMG
JUB
EABL
BAMBURI
Safaricom
ARM
Panafric
CFC Stanbic
Centum

From my analysis TPSE is lack lustre
stock neither here no there. It will still be.

Note:- Am not in the last 2 because of their
miserly dividend policy but they are really
good for the long haul of 3 years minimum ride.

Buy them during dip like EABL at 288 or BAM
at 195 as they recover fast, and most of them
pay good dividends so you dont really loose
for waiting to recover.
I wonder those that bought safcom at 4 bob
and sold at 6.5 bob will feel now when some
of us are looking forward to 15 in 2014,
or someone who bought panafric at 50 bob
and sold at 65 when the ideot is approaching
100 now or HFCK Bought at 16 and sold at 24
when this ideotic ideot will be at least 45 this year.
I know of a wise guy who bought KCB rights
at 18 and wisely sold it at 22 , KCB Is now
47+ is it the wise guy that is wise or stupid
people like us?
Take a look at the least member of my
portfolio pre split 1000 ARM I bought at 90
bob in late 2011. AFTER 5:1 split it became 5,000 units
it is now rebounding to 90 bob that means
90,000 bob investment has ballooned to
450,000 bob in 2 years. What percentage is that ?
Most of you are familiar with my journey with
KCB from pre-split 45 to 10:1 split 45 in 9 years.
Foreigners like such stocks and my tiny self
keyed into it.
The witty @stockmaster has seen the sense
of investing over 3 years rather than the yearly
ritual. He has indeed seen the light.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Aguytrying
#4592 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 11:48:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@young. I see your strategy, it's very wise. the bluechips rarely dissapoint! people don't understand why the trade high pe's but they still do. eg Arm.

By good stocks I'm including all good companies that are not over valued. I'm excluding the so called monkeys and shaky companies. I'm excluding grossly overvalued counters. your list is good as long as one doesn't buy when too overvalued. I'm a value investor so the valuation is very important to me, ill mix it up with bluechips that aren't too overvalued.

my caution is to people who feel they can speculate in this market, better to buy good stocks and just hold.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#4593 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 10:09:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,182
Location: nairobi
@aguy & young iam listening carefully like your careful student,I just wonder what those who were saying hfck is overvalued at 30 are saying now.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#4594 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 10:18:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@cde. you are the true contrarian here. I'm more than impressed. some May not know, let me share.

1. KCB 2011/12. you drummed this up at 15.00 bob. oh no actually LOAR'D it. now its at 48 bob.

2. NBK 2012/13. when people didn't even want to think of this share you were buying at 16.00 range. and boy did it stay down there for long. true contrarian. felt like forever. the stock was feared, a monkey. no touch policy. today its at 30.50 and I'm seeing it overtaking my pride and joy HFCK very soon. will look to profit from rights issue somehow

3. 2013/14 your calling people to mumias. again like NBK, the stock stinks nobody wants to even look it..watch and learn is all I can tell them. and during the NBK play I asked you those doubting questions, sometimes it looks like a leap of Faith. being human ill ask one for mumias.
what are your prospects of the post comeca period? doesn't this scare the living daylights out of you for your capital invested.

congrats on your success, keep inviting and showing we of little faith.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#4595 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 10:27:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
@aguy & young iam listening carefully like your careful student,I just wonder what those who were saying hfck is overvalued at 30 are saying now.


It shows how stocks can't be predicted and I told him that, he can't employ the kind of crystal ball magic of saying this can't go past 30.00.
we achieved our 2013 targets for 2013. I think it closed at 31.00-32.00. and I believe we will achieved 45.00 this year unless external or internal macroeconomic events arise. And for the even more patient, that 20b bond, when fully deployed, this may look like a different share, when you read the price. add in the always likely hood of an equity bank takeover and you May find few reasons to sell this stock . and did I mention the dividends.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
young
#4596 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 11:09:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
dear @Aguy,
There is one stupid thing I discovered in your market after the economic meltdown of 2008 which I since applied in other african markets . Theoritically it is wrong, practically it is right. @chief Guru mentioned somewhere that here a lot of us apply theories not practicals.

(i) In frontier markets, there are more bull cycles than bear cycles, so you should not be afraid of the bears. Buy your favorite blue chip stocks at bear time rather than selling out as long as there is no long term negative news on that counter.

(ii) Profits growth margins is superior to valuations
I know you are a value investor, but this is the truth.
Why is ARM rising faster than Bamburi wheras Bamburi has better valuation ? Profit Growth.

Why is Panafric rising faster than Kenre wheras Kenre has better valuation ? Profit growth
is a more congent fact than Sanlam take over,

Why is KCB rising faster than equity wheras Equity has better valuation (Pe etc)? Profit growth.

Why is safaricom rising?:- Profit growth

Check out other rising counters. They do not have good valuations compared to their peers , but superior profit growth.

The truth is the counter with high pe if it consistently returns superior PBT, the valuations will improve, pe reduces, eps increases.


These days in the key is consistent growth not static valuations.
You are free to disagree or call me names, hakuna matata !!!
But be aware I have seen the good, the bad and the ugly in your market. I have tested many techniques, value investing, fundamentals, speculations etc before I finally settled on this. I started in 2014 and after Kengen rights
will I will fully subscribe I will not invest a shilling in NSE for a long time because my porfolio has grown to a reasonable and more than satisfactory level.
My last major purchase was in Mid July 2013 where I positioned in the 3 stars. Safaricom at 6.50, Panafric at 58 and HFCK at 24.75.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#4597 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 11:28:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Aguytrying wrote:
@cde. you are the true contrarian here. I'm more than impressed. some May not know, let me share.

1. KCB 2011/12. you drummed this up at 15.00 bob. oh no actually LOAR'D it. now its at 48 bob.

2. NBK 2012/13. when people didn't even want to think of this share you were buying at 16.00 range. and boy did it stay down there for long. true contrarian. felt like forever. the stock was feared, a monkey. no touch policy. today its at 30.50 and I'm seeing it overtaking my pride and joy HFCK very soon. will look to profit from rights issue somehow

3. 2013/14 your calling people to mumias. again like NBK, the stock stinks nobody wants to even look it..watch and learn is all I can tell them. and during the NBK play I asked you those doubting questions, sometimes it looks like a leap of Faith. being human ill ask one for mumias.
what are your prospects of the post comeca period? doesn't this scare the living daylights out of you for your capital invested.

congrats on your success, keep inviting and showing we of little faith.



I was about selling off my KCB as I thought I have made enough profit. @Cde was an inspiration to me so I asked myself why should I sell a winning stock ? Take it or leave it KCB is the most profitable banking stock for now.
I rather sold half and kept the ones I bought at rights at 18 bob.
Banking stocks constitute 28% of my holdings
(KCB,HFCK,Equity SCBK) and KCB constitute 6% of it recently overtaken by HFCK at 9.5%.

So kudos to @Cde as far as ROAR is concerned, I am your student. I still disagree with you on Mumias, you might know better. I listen to the sugar czar @Njung'e more. Time will tell.
But I am rounding up in NSE so whether good or bad I will not be interested in Mumias.
I need to build up in the tiny illiquid bourse
USE for the long long term.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Cde Monomotapa
#4598 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 11:31:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
@cde. you are the true contrarian here. I'm more than impressed. some May not know, let me share.

1. KCB 2011/12. you drummed this up at 15.00 bob. oh no actually LOAR'D it. now its at 48 bob.

2. NBK 2012/13. when people didn't even want to think of this share you were buying at 16.00 range. and boy did it stay down there for long. true contrarian. felt like forever. the stock was feared, a monkey. no touch policy. today its at 30.50 and I'm seeing it overtaking my pride and joy HFCK very soon. will look to profit from rights issue somehow

3. 2013/14 your calling people to mumias. again like NBK, the stock stinks nobody wants to even look it..watch and learn is all I can tell them. and during the NBK play I asked you those doubting questions, sometimes it looks like a leap of Faith. being human ill ask one for mumias.
what are your prospects of the post comeca period? doesn't this scare the living daylights out of you for your capital invested.

congrats on your success, keep inviting and showing we of little faith.


Thanks bro for the commendation. Much humbled. I suppose it is a tougher call to do the right thing as opposed to doing things right. Especially for us who seek value - where you can stay under the sun for quite a bit smile

KCB was a good play; right price, clearer and bankable vision executed by a seasoned Topman, Dr. Martin Odour.

NBK just had the price at the time, a lot of faith it took indeed.

Most of all, I have to appreciate the vigilantism on Wazua. Keeps one on toes reviewing & refining thinking ever so often. Cheers...

I also have to commend you as I have seen your confidence grow by leaps & bounds. Your approach has become more assertive. Big up Cde!

As for MSC, came across the sugar stats on the KNBS report http://www.knbs.or.ke/news/lei112013.pdf and it caught my attention. COMESA we will know the fate real soon. Kenya-Re is where there is more commitment going forward.

Let's see.
Ericsson
#4599 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 11:40:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,677
Location: NAIROBI
@young;
Kenya Re is so much undervalued.
In 2012 full year CIC profits were half of what Kenya Re did yet CIC is trading at a higher valuation than Kenya Re.
The market cap of Kenya Re should be at par with that of Britam.
And in the 2013 full year profits to be announced in Q1 this year there will be a bonus issue
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Metasploit
#4600 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 12:19:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
dunkang wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!


Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy.

Lets see how it closes the week


smile
Just hoping they are not "HELLO" Foreigners
smile


Safaricom:High of 11.30.Very good and consistent demand with no supply.I dont know where it is going to

The Taper fears did a good shakeout on Mpesa bank.

12 here we come # cc sufficiently Philanga

Thinks also looking good on centum and Britam.

Waiting for the buy signal on Home Afrik.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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