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USD/KSH Trending
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Tgoldman
#1 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 11:26:52 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/16/2012
Posts: 56
Hi Wazuans. I need advise on the expected trending of USD/KSH this week and possibly next week. From my analysis given its early Jan the weakening against the green bucks will continue coming mostly from corporate buying and manufacturers/importers. I do not really follow the the tourism sector, tea exporters et al which usually bring about stability. Perhaps if any bank forex dealer in wazua can shed some light on it as I intend to change a large chunk and wasn't sure whether I should do it this midweek(Wednesday) or wait it out will next week as per the 14 analysis suggest the shilling weakening against the green buck will continue till next week or you do guys seen CBK immediately jumping in to mob the market where it to cross the 87 point. Your candid analysis, feedback are much appreciated. Asanteni all.
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mchambuzi
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 1:10:09 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
I dont know much about USDKES, but there was a time the CBK governor announced that they will confine it to an undisclosed fixed range and past few weeks it has been fluctuating between 83-87. Looking at the charts, it has been declining every Jan apart from 2013(Possibly elections effect). But without leverage, the impacts are that large? the margins seem small though. Maybe someone else here who actively trades them can help
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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hisah
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 6:36:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KE is floating a $2B eurobond this quarter, which is likely to support KES strength. Also CBK has IMF on standby just in case global credit markets tighten due to credit events (volatility).

The setup is in favour of KES i.e. Strength will be on KES.

@kizee1/scubidu - what's the local feel on the trading desks.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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josimar
#4 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 10:52:23 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/6/2010
Posts: 242
I anticipate a drop in the bank's interest rates if the Eurobond is successful. However the politics of South Sudan, terror threat in Coast may have an impact on the Kenyan economy hence I doubt there will be considerable change in the USD/KSH rate.
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