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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
mlennyma
#4561 Posted : Friday, December 27, 2013 1:01:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,182
Location: nairobi
@aguy hapi new year,2014 is still a stocks year,steer hfck to historical highs driver.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#4562 Posted : Friday, December 27, 2013 1:27:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
@aguy hapi new year,2014 is still a stocks year,steer hfck to historical highs driver.


happy new year and happy hunting. the former driver sasa is a conda telling ppl to enter. maajabu haya.

I'm happy with the 20b bond imagine how much profits will grow and shareprice will follow
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
obiero
#4563 Posted : Sunday, December 29, 2013 4:05:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,497
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
@aguy hapi new year,2014 is still a stocks year,steer hfck to historical highs driver.


happy new year and happy hunting. the former driver sasa is a conda telling ppl to enter. maajabu haya.

I'm happy with the 20b bond imagine how much profits will grow and shareprice will follow

Haha. Gossip itawaua..

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
murchr
#4564 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2013 9:41:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Am looking for the next bluechip, any insight?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
symbols
#4565 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2013 10:08:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
Aguytrying
#4566 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2013 2:34:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
murchr wrote:
Am looking for the next bluechip, any insight?


equity and eabl look enticing of late. but the valuations watch on that
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
FUNKY
#4567 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2013 4:24:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
The Bourse opened the week with a total of 20M shares valued at Kes.698M, up from Kes.373M on a volume of 13M shares posted last Friday.
NSE 20 Share Index shed 12.23 points to stand at 4874.29.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.71 points to stand at 135.83
murchr
#4568 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2013 5:39:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
murchr wrote:
Am looking for the next bluechip, any insight?


equity and eabl look enticing of late. but the valuations watch on that


Thanks @Aguy, I will jump into EABL once it hits 280s or a PE of less than 30 then I wait for a 400/- in a few months.

@CDE look at NBK smile 2013 must have been a very good year for u
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Cde Monomotapa
#4569 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2013 9:33:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
murchr wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
murchr wrote:
Am looking for the next bluechip, any insight?


equity and eabl look enticing of late. but the valuations watch on that


Thanks @Aguy, I will jump into EABL once it hits 280s or a PE of less than 30 then I wait for a 400/- in a few months.

@CDE look at NBK smile 2013 must have been a very good year for u


Hehe..what about this MSC? Return of the laggards. 2014? Tickets at 3.2-3.30 currently. As @hisah said here where any news is good news. RE: KQ. Let's see.

Table 8 on page 17, Cane Deliveries & Table 17(A): Domestic Production of Sugar page 37, have a story to tell. Leading Economic Indicators (September 2013): http://www.knbs.or.ke/news/lei092012.pdf
young
#4570 Posted : Monday, December 30, 2013 10:04:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
For the luggard blue chips that will perform
well in 2014 consider
EABL 290 or below
BAMBURI below 200

Eabl will peak at 400 bob and Bamburi at
320 bob when the chips are down as they
are at their bottoms at the moment.

Also KENGEN below 14 bob is a good entry
point as it will peak at 21 bob in 2014.


But dont forget the 3 stars
Safaricom at 15 bob in 2014
Panafric at 120 bob in 2014
HFCK at 45 bob in 2014
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
murchr
#4571 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2013 1:48:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
murchr wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
murchr wrote:
Am looking for the next bluechip, any insight?


equity and eabl look enticing of late. but the valuations watch on that


Thanks @Aguy, I will jump into EABL once it hits 280s or a PE of less than 30 then I wait for a 400/- in a few months.

@CDE look at NBK smile 2013 must have been a very good year for u


Hehe..what about this MSC? Return of the laggards. 2014? Tickets at 3.2-3.30 currently. As @hisah said here where any news is good news. RE: KQ. Let's see.

Table 8 on page 17, Cane Deliveries & Table 17(A): Domestic Production of Sugar page 37, have a story to tell. Leading Economic Indicators (September 2013): http://www.knbs.or.ke/news/lei092012.pdf


I've been waiting to hear from the gov on what they intend to do...esp with COMESA - nothing enticing so far. But am watching.

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Cde Monomotapa
#4572 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2013 10:08:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
murchr wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
murchr wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
murchr wrote:
Am looking for the next bluechip, any insight?


equity and eabl look enticing of late. but the valuations watch on that


Thanks @Aguy, I will jump into EABL once it hits 280s or a PE of less than 30 then I wait for a 400/- in a few months.

@CDE look at NBK smile 2013 must have been a very good year for u


Hehe..what about this MSC? Return of the laggards. 2014? Tickets at 3.2-3.30 currently. As @hisah said here where any news is good news. RE: KQ. Let's see.

Table 8 on page 17, Cane Deliveries & Table 17(A): Domestic Production of Sugar page 37, have a story to tell. Leading Economic Indicators (September 2013): http://www.knbs.or.ke/news/lei092012.pdf


I've been waiting to hear from the gov on what they intend to do...esp with COMESA - nothing enticing so far. But am watching.



Goodwill smile Game Changer nonetheless. Feb. 14th.
murchr
#4573 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2013 5:22:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Happy New year if you are in Ausi land. How is 2014 so far? smile
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Cde Monomotapa
#4574 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2013 8:50:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Left to hope, wherever you are Cde Youcan'tstopusnow aka @ycsun - Big Up!! Of course, "GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE"
Aguytrying
#4575 Posted : Tuesday, December 31, 2013 11:50:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Left to hope, wherever you are Cde Youcan'tstopusnow aka @ycsun - Big Up!! Of course, "GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE"


Hope he's ok, unlike him to be this silent
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
sparkly
#4576 Posted : Wednesday, January 01, 2014 1:27:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
young wrote:
For the luggard blue chips that will perform
well in 2014 consider
EABL 290 or below
BAMBURI below 200

Eabl will peak at 400 bob and Bamburi at
320 bob when the chips are down as they
are at their bottoms at the moment.

Also KENGEN below 14 bob is a good entry
point as it will peak at 21 bob in 2014.


But dont forget the 3 stars
Safaricom at 15 bob in 2014
Panafric at 120 bob in 2014
HFCK at 45 bob in 2014


Bamburi and Safaricom too ambitious. Too much price competition in cement sector. Safaricom already trading on high PE multiples dont expect much growth in revenues.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4577 Posted : Wednesday, January 01, 2014 1:31:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Left to hope, wherever you are Cde Youcan'tstopusnow aka @ycsun - Big Up!! Of course, "GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE"


Hope he's ok, unlike him to be this silent

I miss his contributions on matters oil exploration!
@SufficientlyP
murchr
#4578 Posted : Wednesday, January 01, 2014 2:26:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Left to hope, wherever you are Cde Youcan'tstopusnow aka @ycsun - Big Up!! Of course, "GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE"


Hope he's ok, unlike him to be this silent

I miss his contributions on matters oil exploration!


I miss them too he's been away since Aug I hope he's fine
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#4579 Posted : Friday, January 03, 2014 7:02:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#4580 Posted : Friday, January 03, 2014 7:05:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE closed 2013 below 5000 despite the mad rush in the market... That level rejected bulls more than 3 times. Got concerned when 5100 also threw a fit and resembles a classic upthrust push. 5000 - 5500 is a resistance forest that needs sizable bid volume to dismiss. That power has been foreign based. Foreign markets sit at frothy high levels currently with some TA tools flashing red. E.g. Dow's 10yr chart RSI overbought trendline has refused to cheer the mad rally towards 16k level. FTSE too not looking solid. The equities bull is pinned at Q4 2011 and gold went down hard from all time highs. Q4 2013 some interesting volume is noted on equities with gold the opp of 2011. NSE bid power is from foreigners whose markets are frothy and a selloff looks very likely as volatility reminds markets that it still lurks around.

Risk management will be key this year whether at NSE or global marts. Keep an eye on gold, USD, 10yr US bonds as well as UK, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Turkey, Saudi, S.Korea, Indonesia, China & Jap for global snapshot.

I still fancy NSE laggards (KK, NBK, KPLC) and expect them to withstand or fair better when the selling weather sets in. MSC is not yet there. Just to add HAFR will cook more turkeys and the volume tells the story; high vol causing price dive kama MSC. Caution.

Added KK @9.40 and KQ @10.50 (when highlighting the breakout to @obiero) to make it Mpesa bank, CFC, member, KK, KQ and PAFR (though a small size which I took while I debated with NBK for quick trade gains. Will sell post FY results).

I don't fancy financials this year and will only keep CFC for my trading game.

Globally bearish on equties esp financials, getting ready to short sell a lot. Expect to see a strong USD though briefly. Bullish on gold/silver and fancy the swiss franc. That euro/swiss floor @1.20 will be where the fight starts when it breaks down...

All the best in 2014...

#Markets hate confessions which are too many now... Confessions precede a debasement.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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