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FED Taper Implications on NSE
Candlesticks
#1 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 7:56:13 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2013
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
The FED taper expected in Q1 2014 should have some implication on most blue chip counters.
Fund managers on Wallstreet will no longer have the dollars to fuel the Greed.
The counters to be largely affected in my view include:
M-pesa which accounts for most foreign investor buys
EABL a correction from all year high is still on going
I&M whose price is down on profit taking
CFC Stanbicexcellent fundamentals but still

Still i have no clue how Janet Yellen who is quite "dovish" on the subject of tapering and her yet to be confirmed Vice Chair Stanely fISCHER, a Keynessian and Bernake's teacher will agree on the tapering subject.

http://www.businessdaily.../1/-/i4iqls/-/index.html
"'Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - Oscar Wilde.
Cde Monomotapa
#2 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 8:30:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
That's a very sober article indeed. It will have to be a choice for global portfolio investors to stay or leave - based on our fundamentals & or other reasons.

A point to note is that the economic landscape has changed/evolved and the flows are not necessarily or predominantly Western: See http://www.herald.co.zw/...-shows-interest-in-zim/

Looking back into history, the 2002-2007 NSE rally was mostly locally driven as a result of the CBK's monetary easing over that period. Now, this Eurobond has to fly IMO to provide room for another domestic easing cycle - giving the economy back to the people!

Let's see...

Also, the recently disbursed USD110M ECF by the IMF should provide a buffer too.
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 9:47:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Mmm..Interesting: Ex-Barclays boss raises $325 million with new venture, looks to Africa http://www.reuters.com/a...o-idUSBRE9BG0BH20131217

http://blogs.wsj.com/mon...banking-frontier-africa/
Candlesticks
#4 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 12:27:50 PM
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Joined: 12/16/2013
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
Good point there. I think slowed activity will offer entry points into the market.
"'Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - Oscar Wilde.
Kausha
#5 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 12:36:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
The market will just tank! The amount of cash leaving will be substantial and unlikely to offset by the inflows into the NSE.
guru267
#6 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 2:15:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I think if Bernanke doesn't taper today then Yellen will only taper in Q2/Q3 next year...

But the effect on the NSE will be Sad

Kenya should issue its EuroBond ASAP because the rate might hit double digits after the taper!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mchambuzi
#7 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 2:26:48 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
I don't see the taper happening today. I agree with goldman
Quote:
GS ON FED TAPERING: ? GS expects that Fed officials will want to offset tapering with a strengthening of the forward guidance, but doubt they are ready to take this step. GS reviews recent discussion of possible changes--including a lower unemployment threshold, an inflation floor, and guidance about the path of the funds rate after the threshold is reached--and find little evidence of a consensus so far. "This suggests that a December taper is less likely, as the lack of an offset heightens the risk of delivering a hawkish surprise." ? If the FOMC does not change the forward guidance, an additional factor in 2014 will be the change in the composition of the Committee, says GS. GS expect that the four regional Fed presidents who will be voters next year, taken as a group, will be somewhat less sympathetic to strengthening the forward guidance than the four current voters.
Quote:


But irregardless, on forex, am long usdcad, usdchf(this morning) and holding short audusd from 0.9167. Been looking at the Chinese stocks

On NSE I am least worried near-term on the implications of tapering. I dont think tapering will adversely affect our market, hedgefunds will still need some investments in emerging markets,.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Candlesticks
#8 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 2:45:26 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2013
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
I think if Bernanke doesn't taper today then Yellen will only taper in Q2/Q3 next year...

But the effect on the NSE will be Sad

Kenya should issue its EuroBond ASAP because the rate might hit double digits after the taper!



tapering today is highly unlikely
"'Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - Oscar Wilde.
Candlesticks
#9 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 2:56:07 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2013
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
mchambuzi wrote:
I don't see the taper happening today. I agree with goldman
Quote:
GS ON FED TAPERING: ? GS expects that Fed officials will want to offset tapering with a strengthening of the forward guidance, but doubt they are ready to take this step. GS reviews recent discussion of possible changes--including a lower unemployment threshold, an inflation floor, and guidance about the path of the funds rate after the threshold is reached--and find little evidence of a consensus so far. "This suggests that a December taper is less likely, as the lack of an offset heightens the risk of delivering a hawkish surprise." ? If the FOMC does not change the forward guidance, an additional factor in 2014 will be the change in the composition of the Committee, says GS. GS expect that the four regional Fed presidents who will be voters next year, taken as a group, will be somewhat less sympathetic to strengthening the forward guidance than the four current voters.
Quote:


But irregardless, on forex, am long usdcad, usdchf(this morning) and holding short audusd from 0.9167. Been looking at the Chinese stocks

On NSE I am least worried near-term on the implications of tapering. I dont think tapering will adversely affect our market, hedgefunds will still need some investments in emerging markets,.


My bet, Forward guidance.Bernake has offered all indications

You FX too?? i am currently not holding any position involving the USD. Awaiting the Fomc outcome before looking for entry signals based on what the markets wants.

Finally tapering will affect our market i thst most of the monies used to invest in the African markets was QE money.
Laughing out loudly smile
"'Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - Oscar Wilde.
guru267
#10 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 3:51:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
For today's trade I'm long EUR/USD at 1.37476 with a small AUD/USD short hedge!

No tapering will be bad for the USD in the short term..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Candlesticks
#11 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 4:48:40 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/16/2013
Posts: 49
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
For today's trade I'm long EUR/USD at 1.37476 with a small AUD/USD short hedge!

No tapering will be bad for the USD in the short term..


For the US economy, Tapering is heaven sent for traders its trouble. EUR/USD i detest that pair with a passion. USD/CHF,gold and FTSE 100 have made me the most money in my trading life. best trade so far 300 pips on Gold in a single trade
"'Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - Oscar Wilde.
Metasploit
#12 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 5:30:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
FED Taper and associated scaremongering is a market manipulation tool.

These guys might taper slightly in March and then revert back.They are between a rock and a hard place.


“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
guru267
#13 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 5:59:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Candlesticks wrote:
guru267 wrote:
For today's trade I'm long EUR/USD at 1.37476 with a small AUD/USD short hedge!

No tapering will be bad for the USD in the short term..


For the US economy, Tapering is heaven sent for traders its trouble. EUR/USD i detest that pair with a passion. USD/CHF,gold and FTSE 100 have made me the most money in my trading life. best trade so far 300 pips on Gold in a single trade


Volatility has been sick ever since this taper talk began!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
tomtom
#14 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 10:33:05 PM
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Joined: 11/19/2013
Posts: 33
Tapering begins ($10 billion monthly reduction from January) US markets up
Metasploit
#15 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 10:36:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
tomtom wrote:
Tapering begins ($10 billion monthly reduction from January) US markets up


Not bad.unlikely to affect stocks in the medium term

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
tomtom
#16 Posted : Wednesday, December 18, 2013 10:43:56 PM
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Joined: 11/19/2013
Posts: 33
Metasploit wrote:
tomtom wrote:
Tapering begins ($10 billion monthly reduction from January) US markets up


Not bad.unlikely to affect stocks in the medium term


agreed
mchambuzi
#17 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 12:59:08 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
tomtom wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
tomtom wrote:
Tapering begins ($10 billion monthly reduction from January) US markets up


Not bad.unlikely to affect stocks in the medium term


agreed

Stocks in Emerging markets alongside the US stocks rallied. Dollar as well rallied smile... Never saw that one coming.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
Metasploit
#18 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 1:44:37 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mchambuzi wrote:
tomtom wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
tomtom wrote:
Tapering begins ($10 billion monthly reduction from January) US markets up


Not bad.unlikely to affect stocks in the medium term


agreed

Stocks in Emerging markets alongside the US stocks rallied. Dollar as well rallied smile... Never saw that one coming.


DJIA :1.84%,S&P 500 1.66% and etc.

Will monitor the Asian stocks when trading begins.By and large,the FED message is that if baseline isnt achieved then $ 75B will be maintainedsmile



“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Nabwire
#19 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 3:13:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
So is this rally due to an end of uncertainty as far as when the Fed will taper, or is it due to the Fed keeping interest rates at record lows or is it because this signals Yellen's policies will be a stark contrast to Bernanke's, or are we just staring down a bubble that's due to pop next October?! Dow and S&P at all time highs!
guru267
#20 Posted : Thursday, December 19, 2013 3:50:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
This Bernanke fellow just lost me a cool amount... Who knew taper would be good news to Mr Market?? d'oh!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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