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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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obiero wrote:need to learn the bolingo bands mumbo jambo.. honestly I dont look at the neck and shoulders as implied on CNBC and other authorities.. iv seen them fail in NSE.. but all the same, I need to learn Depends on how one reads the chart. I pointed KQ to you using BB as it signalled a trend shift. A replica of CFCI back in Feb 2013. BB on NBK meant that price above 22.40 would signal trend shift on the bull side. MSC BB hinted price crash from 5/- zone etc. At the moment mpesa bank & total have a very wide BB which makes BB not effective for trend reading.
BB is effective at pointing breakout events (bull or bear) once the BB constrict for a while. Constriction arises from sideways price trade - narrow range as buyers & sellers measure each other. Then volume spikes check in and soon the compressed BB breaks out. Upper BB break is bullish and vice versa. As always one TA tool is not enough and needs to be used with other for confirmation. More useful when combined with fundies. Works for me @NSE & other markets and i've put out charts many times and some are against the crowd's expectation. Always profitable trading against the crowd at sentiment extremes e.g. KQ mbus at the moment.
When short selling checks in @NSE, cartoons will become more visible...
Happy holidays...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The return of IPO madness. I expect IPOs to flip solid gains in order to lure wanjikus back into the market. Then the hot IPO talks will start and the bubble with start to froth. And then, the end... Wash, rinse repeat till wanjikus learn and give up on the market and the casinos run out globally...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Metasploit, murchr ;) Am out of the counter for now 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:The return of IPO madness. I expect IPOs to flip solid gains in order to lure wanjikus back into the market. Then the hot IPO talks will start and the bubble with start to froth. And then, the end... Wash, rinse repeat till wanjikus learn and give up on the market and the casinos run out globally... If Kenya Re is to the West, Abijan, and hence, by extension ECOWAS and then through ZEP-RE COMESA, why is this (continental) Operation still so undervalued? Ivory coast is recording 7-9% in GDP. Smh.. Oh well...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:obiero wrote:need to learn the bolingo bands mumbo jambo.. honestly I dont look at the neck and shoulders as implied on CNBC and other authorities.. iv seen them fail in NSE.. but all the same, I need to learn Depends on how one reads the chart. I pointed KQ to you using BB as it signalled a trend shift. A replica of CFCI back in Feb 2013. BB on NBK meant that price above 22.40 would signal trend shift on the bull side. MSC BB hinted price crash from 5/- zone etc. At the moment mpesa bank & total have a very wide BB which makes BB not effective for trend reading.
BB is effective at pointing breakout events (bull or bear) once the BB constrict for a while. Constriction arises from sideways price trade - narrow range as buyers & sellers measure each other. Then volume spikes check in and soon the compressed BB breaks out. Upper BB break is bullish and vice versa. As always one TA tool is not enough and needs to be used with other for confirmation. More useful when combined with fundies. Works for me @NSE & other markets and i've put out charts many times and some are against the crowd's expectation. Always profitable trading against the crowd at sentiment extremes e.g. KQ mbus at the moment.
When short selling checks in @NSE, cartoons will become more visible...
Happy holidays... Learning is a process and some counters leave one with nostalgia. Like KQ, those who've suffered loss might eye it with suspicion, despite its transformation into a cash cow. Just like mpesa a while ago. Most important lesson learnt this year, is that there is no room for emotion in the market.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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mwekez@ji wrote:Metasploit, murchr ;) Am out of the counter for now Mwekezaji..This one i disembark at 35.75.I had bought it like 2 weeks before and it was very bullish touching a high of 38.Then the Q3 results disappointment. Incurred a loss of Ksh 60,000 on commission charges which were cancelled by gains i got from KQ(Made 14% in less than a week) and CIC (made 17% in less than a week). Now very liquid and eyeing Safcom (lots of weakness means can test 10 or slightly below at good volumes),KCB (Really oversold..Weakness in counter means i can get it at 44 or there bouts.Volume spike at 45-46 confirms its still bulish unlike Equity Bank) Mwekezaji.How do you upload the chart to Wazua from FT (Can you please do the chart for the 6 month period and using candle sticks.thanks) Surprised the insurance sector is taking this heat fairly well.so i added some CIC at 5.50
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,497 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:obiero wrote:need to learn the bolingo bands mumbo jambo.. honestly I dont look at the neck and shoulders as implied on CNBC and other authorities.. iv seen them fail in NSE.. but all the same, I need to learn Depends on how one reads the chart. I pointed KQ to you using BB as it signalled a trend shift. A replica of CFCI back in Feb 2013. BB on NBK meant that price above 22.40 would signal trend shift on the bull side. MSC BB hinted price crash from 5/- zone etc. At the moment mpesa bank & total have a very wide BB which makes BB not effective for trend reading.
BB is effective at pointing breakout events (bull or bear) once the BB constrict for a while. Constriction arises from sideways price trade - narrow range as buyers & sellers measure each other. Then volume spikes check in and soon the compressed BB breaks out. Upper BB break is bullish and vice versa. As always one TA tool is not enough and needs to be used with other for confirmation. More useful when combined with fundies. Works for me @NSE & other markets and i've put out charts many times and some are against the crowd's expectation. Always profitable trading against the crowd at sentiment extremes e.g. KQ mbus at the moment.
When short selling checks in @NSE, cartoons will become more visible...
Happy holidays... thanks man. lakini I started buyin KQ in March based on fundamentals and not bolingo bands.. im sure the bands havent told guys that KQ may trade at KES 25 by May 2014
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mwekez@ji wrote:Metasploit, murchr ;) Am out of the counter for now @mweke, you have to show us how to post charts here, @CDE dont worry that stock will have its day, its one of the few gems remaining. EPS & PE of 4. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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murchr wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Metasploit, murchr ;) Am out of the counter for now @mweke, you have to show us how to post charts here, @CDE dont worry that stock will have its day, its one of the few gems remaining. EPS & PE of 4. Market value to shareholder funds is 11B* to 16B* i.e 0.7X* - Surely...Sawaz.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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The Bourse opened the week with a total of 21M shares valued at Kes.535M, up from Kes.441M on a volume of 28M shares posted last Friday. The NSE 20 Share Index shed 7.46 points to stand at 4969.32. All Share Index (NASI) eased 0.48 points to stand at 136.22. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/14/2007 Posts: 111
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Most counters are in RED . Is it time to re-enter the race esp for below stocks Carbacid @50 Equitybank @35 Safaricom @ 10 Britam @14.80 CIC @5.50 KQ @ 13.70 Do we still expect more lows on above stocks in january or its best to jump in at these prices Even In The Most Severe Drought In The Jungle Lions Will Never Feed On Grass.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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mypesa wrote:Most counters are in RED . Is it time to re-enter the race esp for below stocks
Carbacid @50
Equitybank @35
Safaricom @ 10
Britam @14.80
CIC @5.50
KQ @ 13.70
Do we still expect more lows on above stocks in january or its best to jump in at these prices EABL Bottomed. Evidenced by bulls defending the price at 290. Volume spike another signal. 52 week low levels at 270-280.Todays low at 275-290.RSI also at almost 52 week low. If it deeps below this level,then mambo mbaya! Safaricom will most likely be defended at 10.00,KCB at 44.But you never know with the market.The main index RSI at 39 but will still go down most likely to 25 or below
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Buoyed by solid volumes, turnover soared to Kes.1.12bn on a volume of 42M shares, up from Kes.535M on 21M shares posted yesterday. The NSE 20 Share Index was down 0.52% to stand at 4943.64 points. All Share Index (NASI) shed 1.60 points to stand at 134.62. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/24/2012 Posts: 331 Location: Vantage point
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People are more liquid now than they will be in Jan, so the downward streak may not be over
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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the deal wrote:Do you smell em bargains coming? :) Do you smell em bargains coming? :) 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 10/11/2009 Posts: 1,223
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NSE and by extension CDSC in deep slumber The market is yet to open. History will not remember you for your IQ. It will remember you for what you did. “Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration.” Thomas Edison
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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What is happening? African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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End of bargain window.Global stocks raising.Volume spike on NIKKEI and etc
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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The cheap QE money has been the drug the global stock markets have been addicted to.Withdrawing it is catastrophic,continuing it is unsustainable.something will just have to give in.Lets wait the FED decision tomorrow
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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