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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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stocksmaster wrote:Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:cnn wrote: After such a day,the NSE 20 closes at 5085 on a 1.5 billion shillings turnover.Safaricom doing more than half a billion in turnover with foreigners who contributed much to the rise in its share price strongly on the sell side and i have noted the same with K.C.B Booking profits for the year. Quote:“Safaricom was the day’s top mover with foreigners selling off the counter on profit taking and local investors accounting for the bulk of demand,” said Standard Investment Bank its analysis of Tuesday’s trading. Kestrel Capital, a brokerage firm based in Nairobi, has put the highest possible price of the share at Sh11.66 and recommended that investors should buy more when the price falls below Sh9.65. www.businessdailyafrica....8/-/rn829yz/-/index.html
Nice for BD to put this article.
Jan - Feb will be interesting. Sucker rally or continuation is the game with 5100 the ref...
How would one be able to tell the difference between Sucker rally and Continuation? Check whose buying and whose selling. A. When it is foreigners buying with locals selling= continuation. B. When its foreigners selling and locals buying then thats a sucker rally. NSE rallys typically follow that model. 'A' happens sucking in locals then ' B' happens. After B happens a correction occurs and we go back to A after sometime. Happy hunting. Thank you 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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CIC doing crazy volumes today!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:cnn wrote: After such a day,the NSE 20 closes at 5085 on a 1.5 billion shillings turnover.Safaricom doing more than half a billion in turnover with foreigners who contributed much to the rise in its share price strongly on the sell side and i have noted the same with K.C.B Booking profits for the year. Quote:“Safaricom was the day’s top mover with foreigners selling off the counter on profit taking and local investors accounting for the bulk of demand,” said Standard Investment Bank its analysis of Tuesday’s trading. Kestrel Capital, a brokerage firm based in Nairobi, has put the highest possible price of the share at Sh11.66 and recommended that investors should buy more when the price falls below Sh9.65. www.businessdailyafrica....8/-/rn829yz/-/index.html
Nice for BD to put this article.
Jan - Feb will be interesting. Sucker rally or continuation is the game with 5100 the ref...
Interesting to see how mpesa trades today. Looks like 11 will be the new resistance level,for now. I watched that foreign sell off jana and it was quite telling. I expected a correction on mpesa to 10.70-10.80 levels but wapi ? Now i see huge block trades on 11.05,11.10 and 11.20. 11 has been defended.
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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My long held BAT @ 600...held from 138, it has been a patient wait....but this one i will never sell.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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cnn wrote:My long held BAT @ 600...held from 138, it has been a patient wait....but this one i will never sell. Agreed.Safaricom is not a stock to sell at the current levels
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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@Hisah,5100 has been taken today,cartoonists what is next resistance?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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Metasploit wrote:cnn wrote:My long held BAT @ 600...held from 138, it has been a patient wait....but this one i will never sell. Agreed.Safaricom is not a stock to sell at the current levels My love is ARM, cant get myself to sell. Thieves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Who is buying/selling Marshalls? In this bull run we might see the likes of Kenya Orchards trading. By the way, from whom is the gov leasing its vehicles from? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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cnn wrote:@Hisah,5100 has been taken today,cartoonists what is next resistance? Seen that NSE20 closed @5125 as close of year approaches.
I haven't analyzed the next levels, but 5400 - 5500 should be the next barrier. Will recalibrate first week of Jan. Laggards next online then crappy stocks then the bear gets back...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,497 Location: nairobi
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cnn wrote:My long held BAT @ 600...held from 138, it has been a patient wait....but this one i will never sell. 138 to 600 is quite good.. but how many shares at such a high entry price can an average guy afford.. not many, if u ask me
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I'm invested, but i love what is happening to the n.s.e. Why? Its an opportunity to buy, and by 2013, which ever way elections go the market will recover. Like last time, besides, i'm rather optimistic of a peaceful election. Post 15 stated back in July 14 2011.
@aguy - tumetoka mbali for sure. I'm glad I had process even then. process over results. this bull/pseudo bull is scaring me. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@VVS. what are your reactions to the market now? most are losing their heads. your flock need you during these turbulent times. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Wow! Just seen that the Tanzania Share Index (TSI) has rallied more than 100% since 30/11/2012 when it closed @1,362.40. It closed on 26/11/2013 @2,743.35 with a number of shares already flipping more than 100%. Also note the overall equity market turnover giant spike this year in Tz. http://www.dse.co.tz/admin/marketreport/134.pdf
And you thought NSE has rallied. Another cursory look at GSE shows an interesting meltup in Ghana... @aguy - look at the Mongolia Stock Exchange Top 20 Index between Feb 2009 and Feb 2011 when the index went from 4600 to 33000pts!!! And recently Venezuela stocks meltup when Chavez sickness meant he would step down. Madness bulls morphed into bisons...! I can hardly imagine such meltups the entire EA. In KE plot/shamba sellers would be lost for words as 2005-2006 bull madness is superceded?! #Value investors in such madness busts would get lost in disbelief. But eventually the when sanity gets back, they'd be the ones left standing. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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@hisah i tend to think all this madness is caused by the hydrocarbon play...even Ghana's market started rallying when tullow started making news. I think we've seen nothing yet "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Wow! Just seen that the Tanzania Share Index (TSI) has rallied more than 100% since 30/11/2012 when it closed @1,362.40. It closed on 26/11/2013 @2,743.35 with a number of shares already flipping more than 100%. Also note the overall equity market turnover giant spike this year in Tz. http://www.dse.co.tz/admin/marketreport/134.pdf
And you thought NSE has rallied. Another cursory look at GSE shows an interesting meltup in Ghana... @aguy - look at the Mongolia Stock Exchange Top 20 Index between Feb 2009 and Feb 2011 when the index went from 4600 to 33000pts!!! And recently Venezuela stocks meltup when Chavez sickness meant he would step down. Madness bulls morphed into bisons...! I can hardly imagine such meltups the entire EA. In KE plot/shamba sellers would be lost for words as 2005-2006 bull madness is superceded?! #Value investors in such madness busts would get lost in disbelief. But eventually the when sanity gets back, they'd be the ones left standing. Probably some more impetus? Re: ICC barrier - Assembly of State Parties amends Article 134 of rules: President and Deputy can be represented by Counsel. http://ow.ly/rfifl
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:@hisah i tend to think all this madness is caused by the hydrocarbon play...even Ghana's market started rallying when tullow started making news. I think we've seen nothing yet Large mineral deposit discoveries often lead to such strong meltups. NSE is yet to go parabolic. When it does, cartoons and fundies will struggle to get the picture as things overheat... I prefer an orderly build up since parabolic moves often end badly like ponzis... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,095 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:@VVS. what are your reactions to the market now? most are losing their heads. your flock need you during these turbulent times. I am flabbergasted. Too much, too fast, too soon. Britam - I decided to bail out on Britam (which I like) when prices hit 13... then out 99% at 15 but now it is 16.90 when the NAV is 10-ish. KQ - I think we need to see the Operational Profits. They may have made money of hedges [oil prices are falling] but this is very complex and dynamic. I do not know how to price them with the limited info shareholders are given. I bailed ages ago at 13.70 during/after the Rights. I&M - I am staying in. A poor 1Q but prudent loan growth with lower than average NPLs in 3Q 2013, Capital Raising to expand local business and expected opening in Uganda in 2014, Subsidiaries are kicking in, etc. HFCK - At 30, I am in but worried about NPLs though recovery rates are good just takes years through the courts. The new land laws worry me. Equity - I like them at this price but NO MORE 50-100% growth in EPS. Now it will settle in at 10-30% annual growth at best. KK - All in. If anything, this is the one I would buy more of BUT no dividend for 2013 as it pays down debt. Cash is good. Keep plenty at hand. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@VVS. what are your reactions to the market now? most are losing their heads. your flock need you during these turbulent times. I am flabbergasted. Too much, too fast, too soon. Britam - I decided to bail out on Britam (which I like) when prices hit 13... then out 99% at 15 but now it is 16.90 when the NAV is 10-ish. KQ - I think we need to see the Operational Profits. They may have made money of hedges [oil prices are falling] but this is very complex and dynamic. I do not know how to price them with the limited info shareholders are given. I bailed ages ago at 13.70 during/after the Rights. I&M - I am staying in. A poor 1Q but prudent loan growth with lower than average NPLs in 3Q 2013, Capital Raising to expand local business and expected opening in Uganda in 2014, Subsidiaries are kicking in, etc. HFCK - At 30, I am in but worried about NPLs though recovery rates are good just takes years through the courts. The new land laws worry me. Equity - I like them at this price but NO MORE 50-100% growth in EPS. Now it will settle in at 10-30% annual growth at best. KK - All in. If anything, this is the one I would buy more of BUT no dividend for 2013 as it pays down debt. Cash is good. Keep plenty at hand. Slowly getting to that position,one has to capture some of these gains.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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obiero wrote:cnn wrote:My long held BAT @ 600...held from 138, it has been a patient wait....but this one i will never sell. 138 to 600 is quite good.. but how many shares at such a high entry price can an average guy afford.. not many, if u ask me Even a batch of 10K shares means a healthy capital gains return,but sweeter are the dividends which are my reason to hold.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,677 Location: NAIROBI
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Profit taking about to begin.Hold your guns Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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