Tea prices have fallen 30% from 2012 (y-o-y) and to their lowest since 2008 when costs of production were much lower. Inflation has been high since 2008 so $2 in 2013 is worth much less in 2008. And the Profit Margin much lower in 2013.
Kapchorua made a significant Operating Loss. It can only get worse in 2H. Excluding Biological Gains,
Kapchorua will make a significant loss.
Williamson, it can get bad very fast if they continue paying high prices for their green leaf from Outgrowers.
Biological Gains are not cash and can be wiped out just as easily when the next revaluation comes along.
Limuru Tea - It sells green leaf to Unilever Tea. 1H profit. 2H loss coming up.
Kakuzi has many business lines and these are long-term (& not fully mature) including avocados & macadamia. Tea which is a mature business for them will take a huge hit. Perhaps, a cash drain.
Even in good years, they need to constantly re-invest the cash/profits into maintenance, upgrades, etc. In bad years, they cannot easily fire the workers so need to spend the cash accumulated to maintain the facilities, equipment, workers, social services, etc.
The only significant dividend (KES 50 about 2 years ago) Williamson ever paid was from the sale of Williamson House [a property located in Upper Hill] not from their core business.
Those who have shares in these firms need patience, fortitude and a very strong stomach! And the ability and foresight to buy when the prices fall. Or wait for a takeover!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett