wazua Thu, Jan 16, 2025
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

Plunging Tea Prices = Plunging Profits in 2013-14
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Friday, November 15, 2013 10:05:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
Tea prices have fallen 30% from 2012 (y-o-y) and to their lowest since 2008 when costs of production were much lower. Inflation has been high since 2008 so $2 in 2013 is worth much less in 2008. And the Profit Margin much lower in 2013.

Kapchorua made a significant Operating Loss. It can only get worse in 2H. Excluding Biological Gains, Kapchorua will make a significant loss.

Williamson, it can get bad very fast if they continue paying high prices for their green leaf from Outgrowers.

Biological Gains are not cash and can be wiped out just as easily when the next revaluation comes along.

Limuru Tea - It sells green leaf to Unilever Tea. 1H profit. 2H loss coming up.

Kakuzi has many business lines and these are long-term (& not fully mature) including avocados & macadamia. Tea which is a mature business for them will take a huge hit. Perhaps, a cash drain.

Even in good years, they need to constantly re-invest the cash/profits into maintenance, upgrades, etc. In bad years, they cannot easily fire the workers so need to spend the cash accumulated to maintain the facilities, equipment, workers, social services, etc.

The only significant dividend (KES 50 about 2 years ago) Williamson ever paid was from the sale of Williamson House [a property located in Upper Hill] not from their core business.

Those who have shares in these firms need patience, fortitude and a very strong stomach! And the ability and foresight to buy when the prices fall. Or wait for a takeover!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#2 Posted : Friday, November 15, 2013 10:30:32 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
VituVingiSana wrote:
On 24 Feb 2010...

Highest Gainers:

Rea Vipingo: VWAP = 15.25 (+9.32%) but closed with no sellers & 33,900 on bid at 15.30 (highest for the day)... 221,700 traded

Sasini: VWAP = 8.55 (+7.55%) but closed with no sellers & 665,500 on bid at 8.70 (highest for the day)... 1,370,000 traded

Kakuzi: VWAP = 39.75 (+7.43%) but closed with no sellers & 2,100 on bid at 37/-... 21,500 traded

Williamson: VWAP = 135 (+3.85%) but closed with no sellers & 7,100 on bid at 135/-... 44,600 traded

There is definitely something going on here...http://wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&t=6118


Sweet memories for those who invested.
Users browsing this topic
Guest
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2025 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.