Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Safaricom at 10 Bob ?
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
|
muganda wrote:Oh one last thing @young @hisah, you remember our discussion below, considering most foreign large players expected these results, it will be interesting to watch their reaction in the coming days... hisah wrote:#10muganda wrote:Actually @hisah SBG Securities/Stanbic estimates Safaricom 1H14 EPS up +63% y/y or +2% h/h, driven by 17% y/y revenue growth to KSh68bn with an EBITDA margin of 40%.
Note however they are of the view rating is unjustified as even a P/E of 16.2 is a 25% premium over peer group - MTN, Vodacom etc. Hence their recommnedation - SELL - target price 8.00 DCF
The direction of the share on announcement will depend, as always, on dear foreigners.
SBG & HSBC saying the same script. Perfect. Interesting SBG was spot on with their revenue projections but the elephant missed their EPS projections by a big margin. Are they going to cut their TP further? On valuations I agree with them,this sort of growth has been priced into the share price. On a straight line basis forward PE is 17 although I expect a bumber dividend at year end as cash flows improve but they need to invest more in their network...its becoming horrible everyday. If anything this kind of results will give the other telco's more ammunition for calls to level the playing field...only SCOM makes money in Kenya's telco industry the rest are loss making...80% voice traffic market share means the other 3 are only sharing 20%!
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
|
10 bob is today "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
|
mlennyma wrote:10 bob is today Already there right at the start of trading.
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
|
10 bob is being grabbed and with the dwindling supply,we can only blame ourselves and watch.I see 11 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,549 Location: nairobi
|
mlennyma wrote:10 bob is today There is someone having a monkey at 10.2 HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
|
Sellers in the market with 2mn at sub-10 on offer Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
|
VituVingiSana wrote:Sellers in the market with 2mn at sub-10 on offer 10mn on offer at sub-10 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
The price is quite overbought at this level and 10 will indeed be a selling zone. Waiting for euro session to come online in the afternoon. #Selling the news. Base target 9 - 9.50 zone. A reload zone must be created. Sell the news then buy the FY rumour in Jan-Feb towards May 2014. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
|
VituVingiSana wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Sellers in the market with 2mn at sub-10 on offer 10mn on offer at sub-10 What about demand? The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
|
10.20???this buyer has only one pride of making safcom reach an all time high price. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
|
SCOM 9.65 9.45 0.20 2.07% 10.20 9.45 33.44M 593 327.90M 7.94% 14:28:28 normal BIDS 10.07M Quantity Price Splits Time 723,800 9.45 10 14:28:28 1.63M 9.40 11 14:28:28 1.52M 9.35 9 14:28:28 20,400 9.30 3 14:28:28 11,400 9.25 3 14:28:28 ASKS 15.55M Quantity Price Splits Time 3.96M 9.50 8 14:28:28 3.05M 9.60 16 14:28:28 500 9.65 1 14:28:28 32,000 9.70 10 14:28:28 3,000 9.75 1 14:28:28 TRADES Quantity Price Time 900 9.45 14:28:26 500 9.45 14:28:06 3,000 9.50 14:28:01 156,000 9.50 14:26:21 60,000 9.50 14:24:14 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
Prints a low of 9.45/- and closes at 9.70/- with a high of 10.20. Classic sell the good news play. 10.10 will be revisited in future. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
|
hisah wrote:Prints a low of 9.45/- and closes at 9.70/- with a high of 10.20.
Classic sell the good news play. 10.10 will be revisited in future. Was a Great ride to 10, a day of the Great Harvest. Time for small cap companies to shine. @SufficientlyP
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 410 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
|
hisah wrote:The price is quite overbought at this level and 10 will indeed be a selling zone. Waiting for euro session to come online in the afternoon.
#Selling the news. Base target 9 - 9.50 zone. A reload zone must be created. Sell the news then buy the FY rumour in Jan-Feb towards May 2014. Safcom will become another BAT and Stanchart as a dividend stock based on the undertaking to be paying 85% of free cash as dividends. This means that the dividends for year ending March 2014 will be between Ksh 0.425 and Ksh 0.446 (free cash flow of between 20-21B as projected by the management). If safcom can maintain this impressive growth momentum, coupled with the declining fortunes of the key nse financial counters, it is destined for greater things. Its Mpesa and Mshwari products make it a bank-equivalent without the scary non performing loans exposure currently being experienced by the likes of KCB and Equity. In future, I forsee safcom spinning off the mpesa/mshwari (bank-equivalent part of safcom) to be a separate subsidiary company which can be more focused as a financial company while the mother telco company focuses on other growth areas. Happy hunting.
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
And the fight continues for the 10/- handle. @stocksmaster - the div boost will definitely keep the bid pressure. But on the short term I expect 10/- to prove a tough to sustain for now as Dec approaches. In Jan/Feb the real fight to dismiss 10/- will begin. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
|
hisah wrote:And the fight continues for the 10/- handle.
@stocksmaster - the div boost will definitely keep the bid pressure. But on the short term I expect 10/- to prove a tough to sustain for now as Dec approaches. In Jan/Feb the real fight to dismiss 10/- will begin. I see a re entry point of 8.25 if the 10 bob resistance holds! Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
|
Ksh.10 to Safaricom is like ksh.50 to KCB.Seems so close yet too far Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
Dwindling fortunes spell doom for Telkom as rival posts mega profitsQuote:Statistics released on Wednesday by the Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) indicate that Telkom Kenya’s customer base fell 31.7 per cent to 2.13 million subscriptions at the close of the financial year.
Despite its privatisation six years ago, Telkom has continued to record losses, defying efforts by its shareholders to move the company out of the red and increase efficiency.
While Orange appears to have benefited, the public has little to show for the deal. Instead of the expected revival, Telkom Kenya has sucked up more taxpayer funds.
The company’s performance, as reflected in the CCK numbers, does not reflect what was praised as the country’s best privatisation deal.
Telkom Kenya is the subject of an investigation by the National Assembly. MPs want to know how the government lost 19 per cent of its stake in the company while attempting to clear a Sh48.4 billion debt that had been accumulated as of June 2012.
Safaricom was the exception in the data market where its market share rose to 75.6 per cent from 68.7 per cent last year. Airtel’s market share dropped to 12.9 per cent from 14 per cent while Essar now controls five per cent of the market from 8.4 per cent last year.
The statements in bold are indeed sticky fingers that depict classic enterprise corruption deals. Wealth transfer from public to private hands. Very sad Meanwhile mpesa bank as indicated above is cannibalizing the data market from its rivals. The data revenues for H1 indicate what is to come next for the rivals as well as its huge cashflow pool. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
Market dominance with more CCK powers - http://www.businessdaily...6/-/r07vot/-/index.html So will they split mpesa bank both for mobile services and mobile money dominance...? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
Safaricom at 10 Bob ?
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|