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Safaricom at 10 Bob ?
the deal
#21 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 7:29:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
muganda wrote:
Oh one last thing @young @hisah, you remember our discussion below, considering most foreign large players expected these results, it will be interesting to watch their reaction in the coming days...

hisah wrote:
#10
muganda wrote:
Actually @hisah SBG Securities/Stanbic estimates Safaricom 1H14 EPS up +63% y/y or +2% h/h, driven by 17% y/y revenue growth to KSh68bn with an EBITDA margin of 40%.

Note however they are of the view rating is unjustified as even a P/E of 16.2 is a 25% premium over peer group - MTN, Vodacom etc. Hence their recommnedation - SELL - target price 8.00 DCF

The direction of the share on announcement will depend, as always, on dear foreigners.


SBG & HSBC saying the same script. Perfect.


Interesting SBG was spot on with their revenue projections but the elephant missed their EPS projections by a big margin.

Are they going to cut their TP further?

On valuations I agree with them,this sort of growth has been priced into the share price. On a straight line basis forward PE is 17 although I expect a bumber dividend at year end as cash flows improve but they need to invest more in their network...its becoming horrible everyday.

If anything this kind of results will give the other telco's more ammunition for calls to level the playing field...only SCOM makes money in Kenya's telco industry the rest are loss making...80% voice traffic market share means the other 3 are only sharing 20%!
mlennyma
#22 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 9:20:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
10 bob is today
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
cnn
#23 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 9:35:45 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
mlennyma wrote:
10 bob is today

Already there right at the start of trading.
mlennyma
#24 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 9:38:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
10 bob is being grabbed and with the dwindling supply,we can only blame ourselves and watch.I see 11
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
obiero
#25 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 10:35:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,549
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
10 bob is today

There is someone having a monkey at 10.2

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 10:40:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Sellers in the market with 2mn at sub-10 on offer
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
streetwise
#27 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 11:15:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Si they wait...
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 11:38:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Sellers in the market with 2mn at sub-10 on offer
10mn on offer at sub-10
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#29 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 11:45:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The price is quite overbought at this level and 10 will indeed be a selling zone. Waiting for euro session to come online in the afternoon.

#Selling the news. Base target 9 - 9.50 zone. A reload zone must be created. Sell the news then buy the FY rumour in Jan-Feb towards May 2014.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
jerry
#30 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 11:51:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
VituVingiSana wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Sellers in the market with 2mn at sub-10 on offer
10mn on offer at sub-10

What about demand?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
mlennyma
#31 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 11:58:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
10.20???this buyer has only one pride of making safcom reach an all time high price.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#32 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 2:34:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
SCOM 9.65 9.45 0.20
2.07%
10.20 9.45 33.44M 593 327.90M
7.94%
14:28:28

normal
BIDS 10.07M
Quantity Price Splits Time
723,800 9.45 10 14:28:28
1.63M 9.40 11 14:28:28
1.52M 9.35 9 14:28:28
20,400 9.30 3 14:28:28
11,400 9.25 3 14:28:28
ASKS 15.55M
Quantity Price Splits Time
3.96M 9.50 8 14:28:28
3.05M 9.60 16 14:28:28
500 9.65 1 14:28:28
32,000 9.70 10 14:28:28
3,000 9.75 1 14:28:28
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
900 9.45 14:28:26
500 9.45 14:28:06
3,000 9.50 14:28:01
156,000 9.50 14:26:21
60,000 9.50 14:24:14
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#33 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 3:06:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Prints a low of 9.45/- and closes at 9.70/- with a high of 10.20.

Classic sell the good news play. 10.10 will be revisited in future.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#34 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 6:59:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
Prints a low of 9.45/- and closes at 9.70/- with a high of 10.20.

Classic sell the good news play. 10.10 will be revisited in future.

Was a Great ride to 10, a day of the Great Harvest.
Time for small cap companies to shine.
@SufficientlyP
stocksmaster
#35 Posted : Wednesday, November 06, 2013 7:55:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
hisah wrote:
The price is quite overbought at this level and 10 will indeed be a selling zone. Waiting for euro session to come online in the afternoon.

#Selling the news. Base target 9 - 9.50 zone. A reload zone must be created. Sell the news then buy the FY rumour in Jan-Feb towards May 2014.


Safcom will become another BAT and Stanchart as a dividend stock based on the undertaking to be paying 85% of free cash as dividends. This means that the dividends for year ending March 2014 will be between Ksh 0.425 and Ksh 0.446 (free cash flow of between 20-21B as projected by the management).

If safcom can maintain this impressive growth momentum, coupled with the declining fortunes of the key nse financial counters, it is destined for greater things. Its Mpesa and Mshwari products make it a bank-equivalent without the scary non performing loans exposure currently being experienced by the likes of KCB and Equity.

In future, I forsee safcom spinning off the mpesa/mshwari (bank-equivalent part of safcom) to be a separate subsidiary company which can be more focused as a financial company while the mother telco company focuses on other growth areas.

Happy hunting.
hisah
#36 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2013 11:42:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
And the fight continues for the 10/- handle.

@stocksmaster - the div boost will definitely keep the bid pressure. But on the short term I expect 10/- to prove a tough to sustain for now as Dec approaches. In Jan/Feb the real fight to dismiss 10/- will begin.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#37 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2013 12:05:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
And the fight continues for the 10/- handle.

@stocksmaster - the div boost will definitely keep the bid pressure. But on the short term I expect 10/- to prove a tough to sustain for now as Dec approaches. In Jan/Feb the real fight to dismiss 10/- will begin.


I see a re entry point of 8.25 if the 10 bob resistance holds!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Ericsson
#38 Posted : Thursday, November 07, 2013 12:20:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
Ksh.10 to Safaricom is like ksh.50 to KCB.Seems so close yet too far
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
hisah
#39 Posted : Sunday, November 10, 2013 10:26:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Dwindling fortunes spell doom for Telkom as rival posts mega profits

Quote:
Statistics released on Wednesday by the Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) indicate that Telkom Kenya’s customer base fell 31.7 per cent to 2.13 million subscriptions at the close of the financial year.

Despite its privatisation six years ago, Telkom has continued to record losses, defying efforts by its shareholders to move the company out of the red and increase efficiency.

While Orange appears to have benefited, the public has little to show for the deal. Instead of the expected revival, Telkom Kenya has sucked up more taxpayer funds.

The company’s performance, as reflected in the CCK numbers, does not reflect what was praised as the country’s best privatisation deal.


Telkom Kenya is the subject of an investigation by the National Assembly. MPs want to know how the government lost 19 per cent of its stake in the company while attempting to clear a Sh48.4 billion debt that had been accumulated as of June 2012.

Safaricom was the exception in the data market where its market share rose to 75.6 per cent from 68.7 per cent last year. Airtel’s market share dropped to 12.9 per cent from 14 per cent while Essar now controls five per cent of the market from 8.4 per cent last year.


The statements in bold are indeed sticky fingers that depict classic enterprise corruption deals. Wealth transfer from public to private hands. Very sad Sad

Meanwhile mpesa bank as indicated above is cannibalizing the data market from its rivals. The data revenues for H1 indicate what is to come next for the rivals as well as its huge cashflow pool.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#40 Posted : Monday, November 11, 2013 9:01:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Market dominance with more CCK powers - http://www.businessdaily...6/-/r07vot/-/index.html

So will they split mpesa bank both for mobile services and mobile money dominance...?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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