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Kengen FY13 PAT up 86% on tax credit. PBT Flat
the deal
#11 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 7:30:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I like KenGen...I have been holding since Ksh7.50 but this results are way below par...ROI from all this new power plants is pathetic at the current tariff...
mwekez@ji
#12 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 9:28:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
KenGen, with the tax credit, now trades at P/E of 7.1x and P/B of 0.2x with an ROE of 3.2% which compares unfavorably to Kenya Power’s P/E of 6.4x and P/B of 0.6x with an ROE of 9.2%
Ericsson
#13 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 9:29:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,810
Location: NAIROBI
@murchr;I am still around.I have been perusing the results vis-a-vis the ones for the major customer (KPLC) and the following are my analysis;
--KENGEN is continuing to gain market share in terms of electricity sales from the IPPs and thermal producers.Good hydrology boosted this as it was able to avail relatively cheap power.
--The additional power to be brought online by the geothermal projects faces a challenge to inability of KPLC KPLC to absorb.This is due to the weak transmission and distribution network.By now we should be having an 800Kv transmission line from Olkaria and the eastern hydros.



Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#14 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 9:34:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,810
Location: NAIROBI
--Weak economic growth will lead to a slower growth in the consumption/electricity sales.Our per capita consumption of electricity is still low and the Kenyan economy is growing at below the average sub-saharan economic growth.
--Alot of marketing needs to be done to encourage to consume more power akin to the one been done by mobile phone companies encouraging subscribers to consume more internet bandwidth/bundles.
--280Mw of geothermal power is being brought online by September 2014 with the first 70mw coming on-board in December 2013.
The results are good and even with the debt kengen currently has (ksh.85b)it is still able to give dividends.A good stock to buy and hold
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Kausha
#15 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 10:38:44 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Kshs 3B financing costs and 16.5B revenue means 18% finance cost. Pity Equity owners, they will never see much dividend. So Kengen has spent 25B adding more than 400MW which is about 30% of it's 2009 capacity. Pity nothing much has flowed to the equity holders and importantly EBIT is barely growing.
mwekez@ji
#16 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 1:58:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
KenGen Plans to Raise $5.5 Billion to Fund Expansion

Kenya Electricity Generating Co., the East African nation’s biggest power producer, said it will raise $5.5 billion in debt and equity to more than double generating capacity over the next 40 months.

The company plans to generate 2,500 megawatts of additional capacity in that period, acting Chief Executive Officer Simon Ngure told reporters today in the capital, Nairobi. About 70 percent of the funds will come from development finance institutions, while the remainder will be sourced from equity including joint ventures, he said.

murchr
#17 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 2:09:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Kausha wrote:
Kshs 3B financing costs and 16.5B revenue means 18% finance cost. Pity Equity owners, they will never see much dividend. So Kengen has spent 25B adding more than 400MW which is about 30% of it's 2009 capacity. Pity nothing much has flowed to the equity holders and importantly EBIT is barely growing.



?????
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#18 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 2:13:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Ericsson wrote:
--Weak economic growth will lead to a slower growth in the consumption/electricity sales.Our per capita consumption of electricity is still low and the Kenyan economy is growing at below the average sub-saharan economic growth.
--Alot of marketing needs to be done to encourage to consume more power akin to the one been done by mobile phone companies encouraging subscribers to consume more internet bandwidth/bundles.
--280Mw of geothermal power is being brought online by September 2014 with the first 70mw coming on-board in December 2013.
The results are good and even with the debt kengen currently has (ksh.85b)it is still able to give dividends.A good stock to buy and hold


I totally agree with you, its time to start looking elsewhere for mkt, being dependent on KPLC will hurt KENGEN in the future...and, its time this company got new mgt
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ericsson
#19 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 4:02:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,810
Location: NAIROBI
@Murchr and Kausha;
Kausha wrote:
Kshs 3B financing costs and 16.5B revenue means 18% finance cost. Pity Equity owners, they will never see much dividend. So Kengen has spent 25B adding more than 400MW which is about 30% of it's 2009 capacity. Pity nothing much has flowed to the equity holders and importantly EBIT is barely growing.

The reason for the high financing costs is due to repayment of the principal and interest of the PIBO that was issued in 2009.Ksh.3B financing costs is nothing unusual.What needs to be done is increment in electricity consumption like I mentioned earleir
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Pesa Nane
#20 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 9:52:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
mwekez@ji wrote:
KenGen Plans to Raise $5.5 Billion to Fund Expansion

Kenya Electricity Generating Co., the East African nation’s biggest power producer, said it will raise $5.5 billion in debt and equity to more than double generating capacity over the next 40 months.

The company plans to generate 2,500 megawatts of additional capacity in that period, acting Chief Executive Officer Simon Ngure told reporters today in the capital, Nairobi. About 70 percent of the funds will come from development finance institutions, while the remainder will be sourced from equity including joint ventures, he said.

I had missed the all important $ sign. There goes the rights issue confirmation.
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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