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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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heri
#691 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 8:13:52 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
With the good performance what is the PE now?
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Aguytrying
#692 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:02:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
heri wrote:
With the good performance what is the PE now?


PE: 6.91 Assuming a fy 2103 eps 0f 3.80 Last year Eps was 3.22. Trailing PE is 8.15.

Early 2011 Hfck was trading at a PE of 18.03. Had an eps of 1.65 from fy 2010. was trading around 30.00.

If we price HFCK at a PE of 11.00 and Eps of 3.80
Target price is 41.8 shillings.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:26 AM | Reason: re calculated eps
jerry
#693 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:13:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
It seems it won't appreciate till I offload my shares!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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heri
#694 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:21:48 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
with such a low PE why is the share not appreciating?

Is it not very cheap at the current price?

what is the fair value of the share?
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cnn
#695 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:22:19 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
With the good performance what is the PE now?


PE: 6.91 Assuming a fy 2103 eps 0f 3.80 Last year Eps was 3.22. Trailing PE is 8.15.

Early 2011 Hfck was trading at a PE of 18.03. Had an eps of 1.65 from fy 2010. was trading around 30.00.


The EPS as at end of Q3 is already 3.9,the full year will be northwards of 4.0.
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Aguytrying
#696 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:31:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
cnn wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
With the good performance what is the PE now?


PE: 6.91 Assuming a fy 2103 eps 0f 3.80 Last year Eps was 3.22. Trailing PE is 8.15.

Early 2011 Hfck was trading at a PE of 18.03. Had an eps of 1.65 from fy 2010. was trading around 30.00.


The EPS as at end of Q3 is already 3.9,the full year will be northwards of 4.0.


3.9 is an extrapolation to fy 2013. The actual eps for Q3 is 676m(PAT)/230m(shares)= 2.94.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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cnn
#697 Posted : Tuesday, October 29, 2013 11:45:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
Aguytrying wrote:
cnn wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
With the good performance what is the PE now?


PE: 6.91 Assuming a fy 2103 eps 0f 3.80 Last year Eps was 3.22. Trailing PE is 8.15.

Early 2011 Hfck was trading at a PE of 18.03. Had an eps of 1.65 from fy 2010. was trading around 30.00.


The EPS as at end of Q3 is already 3.9,the full year will be northwards of 4.0.


3.9 is an extrapolation to fy 2013. The actual eps for Q3 is 676m(PAT)/230m(shares)= 2.94.

Thanks @Aguy...i should have done my homework.
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heri
#698 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 10:04:38 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 869
Location: nairobi
why is the price stagnant at 25-26 for so long?

Not that am complaining since i bought mine last year at sh 16 in Oct 2012 which gives me a good return todate (60%)

But i hope there is nothing other people are seeing which am not?

I only hope the NPLs will not have a big hit for the full year audited results
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, October 30, 2013 10:07 AM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#699 Posted : Wednesday, October 30, 2013 10:57:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the ceo said the npls will start to reduce next year as gov speeds up the process of reclaiming mortgages.
whatever is holding the share back doesn't matter. one time certain share will be all the talk in the town like saf, centum etc. hfck will get it's day.
there was a time it was trading at a pe of 18 in early 2011. if that was the case now that would be like 68.00 now. then ppl would ask what are we not seeing and may even try to push it to 100.00.

disclaimer: biased I own hfck shares
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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guru267
#700 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 8:01:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I wasn't expecting to be able to get this share yesterday but Mr Market was ready to hand me some at 27bob...

The resistance here is simply fighting a losing battle... This thing will one day explode like crazy!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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