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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
murchr
#4161 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 5:11:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
@hisah, don't kill our appetite we've been waiting for the Mongolia moment. Ghanians are doing alright
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Hunderwear
#4162 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2013 2:39:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
http://www.businessdaily.../-/c78wg6z/-/index.html
murchr wrote:
@hisah, don't kill our appetite we've been waiting for the Mongolia moment. Ghanians are doing alright

hisah
#4163 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2013 7:05:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Hunderwear wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/NSE-turnover-hits--Sh115bn/-/539552/2025624/-/c78wg6z/-/index.html
murchr wrote:
@hisah, don't kill our appetite we've been waiting for the Mongolia moment. Ghanians are doing alright


The last statement in that article is the catch for NSE bulls.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#4164 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2013 11:12:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Looks like the rally is over, im seeing some pull backs on saf, eabl. eqty(yesterday). Or is it the calm before the storm?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Wondergirl
#4165 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2013 11:32:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Aguytrying wrote:
Looks like the rally is over, im seeing some pull backs on saf, eabl. eqty(yesterday). Or is it the calm before the storm?

profit taking at play....
Ericsson
#4166 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2013 11:52:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,677
Location: NAIROBI
It's time for some other equities to take the mantle.
Co-op Bank,ARM,Home Africa are now on the bull
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
hisah
#4167 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2013 12:26:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Wondergirl wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Looks like the rally is over, im seeing some pull backs on saf, eabl. eqty(yesterday). Or is it the calm before the storm?

profit taking at play....

NSE plus the above counters are overbought after rallying for a while. A breather is a healthy break for now.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
young
#4168 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2013 1:36:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
hisah wrote:
Wondergirl wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Looks like the rally is over, im seeing some pull backs on saf, eabl. eqty(yesterday). Or is it the calm before the storm?

profit taking at play....

NSE plus the above counters are overbought after rallying for a while. A breather is a healthy break for now.



Blue chip stocks cannot rise indefinately everyday.
Now there is profit taking that will make choice stocks to loose. This is a normal cycle.
This may take a few days.
When stocks rebound for those with favorable results in Q3, expect new highs.
This is the normal pattern.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#4169 Posted : Thursday, October 10, 2013 1:38:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
hisah wrote:
Wondergirl wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Looks like the rally is over, im seeing some pull backs on saf, eabl. eqty(yesterday). Or is it the calm before the storm?

profit taking at play....

NSE plus the above counters are overbought after rallying for a while. A breather is a healthy break for now.



Blue chip stocks cannot rise indefinately everyday.
Now there is profit taking that will make choice stocks to loose. This is a normal cycle.
This may take a few days.
When stocks rebound for those with good results in Q3, expect new highs.
This is the normal pattern.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
mlennyma
#4170 Posted : Friday, October 11, 2013 12:52:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,182
Location: nairobi
Despite the profit taking,volumes continue to be encouraging.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Metasploit
#4171 Posted : Tuesday, October 15, 2013 11:03:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Posts disappear when Markets correct.

That aside,CFC touched a low of 75 (13% from last trading high of 85),Eabl closed at 316(9% from last trading high of 345,and potential of touching a low of 305),KCB touched a low of 47 (6.3% from all time high of 50),Safcom(very bullish) might retouch 9.05 due to build in supply at 9.10.Correction looming on Britam.

US debt ceiling (??will they really default????) and the ICC Nov 12 cases(most likely a defferal ??????)

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Aguytrying
#4172 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 8:39:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
chase over valued counters at your own risk.
my buy list contains tpse 45.00, kk below 9.00, and I&M bank at 95.00 and or below.

@hisah. something happened to I&M bank. recently as regards volumes very high volumes plus price rally from 85-100. then price stagnated.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#4173 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 10:54:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
chase over valued counters at your own risk.
my buy list contains tpse 45.00, kk below 9.00, and I&M bank at 95.00 and or below.

@hisah. something happened to I&M bank. recently as regards volumes very high volumes plus price rally from 85-100. then price stagnated.

I&M is still very new to make any solid conclusions for now. Also being illiquid it doesn't attract my attention.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4174 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 11:00:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Metasploit wrote:
Posts disappear when Markets correct.

That aside,CFC touched a low of 75 (13% from last trading high of 85),Eabl closed at 316(9% from last trading high of 345,and potential of touching a low of 305),KCB touched a low of 47 (6.3% from all time high of 50),Safcom(very bullish) might retouch 9.05 due to build in supply at 9.10.Correction looming on Britam.

US debt ceiling (??will they really default????) and the ICC Nov 12 cases(most likely a defferal ??????)

Worst case scenario is if the USD rate spikes. The effect will be a global selloff.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#4175 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 11:56:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
chase over valued counters at your own risk.
my buy list contains tpse 45.00, kk below 9.00, and I&M bank at 95.00 and or below.

@hisah. something happened to I&M bank. recently as regards volumes very high volumes plus price rally from 85-100. then price stagnated.

I&M is still very new to make any solid conclusions for now. Also being illiquid it doesn't attract my attention.


Je vois monsieur Hisah, Je vois.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#4176 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 12:03:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Interesting bull vs bear fight. This congestion has to be resolved and soon to determine the dorminant trend.



UPDATE: Ascending triangle. Some reading here - http://www.investopedia..../a/ascendingtriangle.asp
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#4177 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 2:18:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Where is @guru267? She must be holding her breath over HAFR. @hisah thanks for the education
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#4178 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 4:33:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,095
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
chase over valued counters at your own risk.
my buy list contains tpse 45.00, kk below 9.00, and I&M bank at 95.00 and or below.

@hisah. something happened to I&M bank. recently as regards volumes very high volumes plus price rally from 85-100. then price stagnated.

I&M is still very new to make any solid conclusions for now. Also being illiquid it doesn't attract my attention.
Supply not demand is the 'problem' & that's a good problem to have for sellers. That said,

1) The buyers are probably more sophisticated after all it takes 1,000,000/- to buy 1,000 shares hence the share is less prone to 'retail' investor euphoria. The buyers would do their research.
2) "Newish" in the market as pointed out above. It needs the release of good 3Q & 4Q numbers to gain the interest of the larger investing community. DTB is known despite being of similar size & with a much higher price of 180-ish & a few Rights Issues as well as many more branches.
3) It needs a split (5 for 1) to the 20-ish level for increased activity/liquidity. This refers to number of shares traded not necessarily the value. The shareholder list is small & fewer than 1,000 at the moment with the top 100 owning 90% or more of the shares.
4) Marketing of the shares? The directors of I&M are out not out there making speeches/statements. It is a smallish bank in terms of branches unlike DTB.
5) Pricing/value. It is neither a cheap nor pricey bank. It may be in the lower range of PER by my calculations. I estimate the EPS to be 13-14 which is a PER of 7.5-ish
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Pesa Nane
#4179 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 5:26:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
chase over valued counters at your own risk.
my buy list contains tpse 45.00, kk below 9.00, and I&M bank at 95.00 and or below.

@hisah. something happened to I&M bank. recently as regards volumes very high volumes plus price rally from 85-100. then price stagnated.

I&M is still very new to make any solid conclusions for now. Also being illiquid it doesn't attract my attention.
Supply not demand is the 'problem' & that's a good problem to have for sellers. That said,

1) The buyers are probably more sophisticated after all it takes 1,000,000/- to buy 1,000 shares hence the share is less prone to 'retail' investor euphoria. The buyers would do their research.
2) "Newish" in the market as pointed out above. It needs the release of good 3Q & 4Q numbers to gain the interest of the larger investing community. DTB is known despite being of similar size & with a much higher price of 180-ish & a few Rights Issues as well as many more branches.
3) It needs a split (5 for 1) to the 20-ish level for increased activity/liquidity. This refers to number of shares traded not necessarily the value. The shareholder list is small & fewer than 1,000 at the moment with the top 100 owning 90% or more of the shares.
4) Marketing of the shares? The directors of I&M are out not out there making speeches/statements. It is a smallish bank in terms of branches unlike DTB.
5) Pricing/value. It is neither a cheap nor pricey bank. It may be in the lower range of PER by my calculations. I estimate the EPS to be 13-14 which is a PER of 7.5-ish

@VVS, Computer Error!!
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Pesa Nane
#4180 Posted : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 5:43:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
chase over valued counters at your own risk.
my buy list contains tpse 45.00, kk below 9.00, and I&M bank at 95.00 and or below.

@hisah. something happened to I&M bank. recently as regards volumes very high volumes plus price rally from 85-100. then price stagnated.

I&M is still very new to make any solid conclusions for now. Also being illiquid it doesn't attract my attention.
Supply not demand is the 'problem' & that's a good problem to have for sellers. That said,

1) The buyers are probably more sophisticated after all it takes 1,000,000/- to buy 1,000 shares hence the share is less prone to 'retail' investor euphoria. The buyers would do their research.
2) "Newish" in the market as pointed out above. It needs the release of good 3Q & 4Q numbers to gain the interest of the larger investing community. DTB is known despite being of similar size & with a much higher price of 180-ish & a few Rights Issues as well as many more branches.
3) It needs a split (5 for 1) to the 20-ish level for increased activity/liquidity. This refers to number of shares traded not necessarily the value. The shareholder list is small & fewer than 1,000 at the moment with the top 100 owning 90% or more of the shares.
4) Marketing of the shares? The directors of I&M are out not out there making speeches/statements. It is a smallish bank in terms of branches unlike DTB.
5) Pricing/value. It is neither a cheap nor pricey bank. It may be in the lower range of PER by my calculations. I estimate the EPS to be 13-14 which is a PER of 7.5-ish

Biashara Securities limited, which owned 13.92% of I&M Holdings, was wound up and the shares transferred to the individual BSL shareholders bringing the total number of I&M shareholders to approx. 1,800. Highest shareholder, Ziyungi Ltd, owns 18.74% (BD, 10/10/13)

I&M Factsheet (Circular)
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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