wazua Thu, Jan 16, 2025
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

2 Pages<12
NBK 1H 2013 PBT lag at 3.5%
mwekez@ji
#21 Posted : Wednesday, August 07, 2013 1:49:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwanahisa wrote:
SBG's take on the NBK results...

Half way through the 2013 financial year and National Bank Kenya’s H1:13 results appear to be broadly in line with our FY13 forecasts on an annualised basis (6% ahead of our FY13E numbers). At this point our FY13E forecasts remain unchanged and we maintain our SELL recommendation .

Headline numbers show a weak Q2:13 performance: NBK’s Q2:13 PBT of Ksh307m is 11% below its Q1:13 results but 5% ahead on a y/y basis. Interest expense which increased by 26% q/q to Ksh700m was one of the main reasons for the weak performance. Interestingly, a higher cost of deposits in Q2 was also noted at Equity Bank (+35%q/q) but registered a decline at Barclays Bank (-3%q/q). Net interest income growth was strong at 32%y/y and 14%q/q supported by income from its government securities book. Non-funded income was less upbeat (-31%y/y driven by lower trading and other income). Operating costs registered a marginal increase of 6% y/y and 12% q/q.

NPL’s grow 3.6x on a y/y basis: The banks H1:13 NPL’s stock stood at Ksh4bn vs. Ksh1.1bn in H1:12 with no explanation provided by management. This means that NBK which has a Loans/Deposits ratio of 46% has the highest NPL’s to loans ratio among the companies that we cover based on our analysis, at 15% (8% in FY12) and NPL’s to core capital ratio of 42%. Given its H1:13 loan loss provision of Ksh113m, on our calculations, the banks cost of risk increased by 25bps q/q to 0.95% likely due to SME and mortgage provisioning. With no guidance on asset quality in H2:13, we do not dismiss the possibility of higher provisions than what we factor in our numbers.

Up to c.21% dilution from planned Ksh10bn rights issue: The bank has announced plans to raise Ksh10bn to 1) Pursue loan growth from SME, mortgage and corporate banking segments. 2) Diversify its balance sheet beyond the traditional government book. 3) Open 30 new branches by 2017. If they it were carried out at a 30% discount to today’s closing price, Ksh21.50, we estimate that an additional 664m shares would have to be issued and pro-rata share price would be around Ksh17 per share or 21% below current levels.

TP and rating unchanged : Our FY13E forecasts remain unchanged on the back of this result and we maintain our SELL recommendation TP Ksh23. We prefer NIC Bank (BUY TP Ksh64) and Diamond Trust Bank (BUY TP Ksh192) for tier II names. NBK trades on a FY13E P/E of 5.5x and P/B of 0.5x (our estimates)>.






SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd | 4th Floor | 2 Exchange Square | 85 Maude Street | Sandown | Sandton | 2196


#Word ... & NPL/Loan ratio of 15% (8% in FY12) is highest in industry Sad
mwekez@ji
#22 Posted : Wednesday, August 07, 2013 1:51:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Chaps have hired mumia's cfo.
(h)ataua nbk¿?

Seriously...


Ys. Srsly ...
mwekez@ji
#23 Posted : Wednesday, August 07, 2013 2:14:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Interesting how in the midst of all these, counter has refused to go again sub 20

hisah
#24 Posted : Wednesday, August 07, 2013 2:43:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
Interesting how in the midst of all these, counter has refused to go again sub 20


Interesting. I have been expecting it to tank sub 20, but the thing has hanged on for too long. Bollinger bands compression also warns a looming large move. Bias is shifting upwards.

@cde might after all be laughing to the bank...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#25 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 2:45:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mwekezaji - btw the upper bollinger band is currently tagged at the 23/- level. A close above that level will confirm NBK is ready to move upwards!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#26 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 5:01:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
@mwekezaji - btw the upper bollinger band is currently tagged at the 23/- level. A close above that level will confirm NBK is ready to move upwards!


;-) #Noted #Following Very Closely
mwekez@ji
#27 Posted : Sunday, August 18, 2013 7:01:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Theft of documents throws National Bank board into a crisis

... “There are governance issues on independence, group think, lack of depth, lack of honesty, outright conflict of interest, mental intimidation, corruption (i.e abuse of office for private gain) amongst others on the board.”
mwekez@ji
#28 Posted : Tuesday, August 20, 2013 9:15:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
National Bank of Kenya cleans house to court new investors

... While Equity Bank had earlier expressed interest in acquiring NBK, noise from the bank’s board forced Kenya’s largest bank in terms of customer numbers to withdraw.
mwekez@ji
#29 Posted : Tuesday, September 17, 2013 11:21:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
National Bank and school lock horns over loan arrears

* The bank seeks to sell the institution’s property over alleged mortgage arrears amounting to Sh380.1 million from a Sh281 million loan taken in 2009.
* The academy accused the bank of failing to disclose the fees payment made by students through the school account.
mwekez@ji
#30 Posted : Friday, September 20, 2013 8:39:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji on August 06, 2013 wrote:
Chaps have hired mumia's cfo.
(h)ataua nbk¿?

Seriously...


Ys. Srsly ...


C >>> Rink
King G
#31 Posted : Friday, September 20, 2013 9:47:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji on August 06, 2013 wrote:
Chaps have hired mumia's cfo.
(h)ataua nbk¿?

Seriously...


Ys. Srsly ...


C >>> Rink


CV not impressive but let us hope he turns around this thing. Been long.
Thieves
Users browsing this topic
Guest (7)
2 Pages<12
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2025 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.