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Realities of Forex Investment
Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 58.6 vs 55.0 expected with the employment component at 57, much higher than the 53.2 expected; US Factory Orders –2.4% vs –3.3% expected.......with the numbers just in looks like the fed is set to start tapering on the 18th unless NFP is a huge miss. It should also be noted that US 10 year note is getting really close to 3% and with USDJPY breaking 100 today cant help but be bullish You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aussie & aussie stocks turning bullish... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sept is here... Trades for the final qtr of the year already taken. Long silver a while back @ 19.50, Long AUDJPY @92. Waiting to long USDJPY above 101.50. Closed shorts of USDZAR, USDINR, NIKKEI, BSE. Pending long aussie market on break of 5250 level, Nikkei above 14700. Aussie & aussie stocks forming a heavy bullish charge. @fxtech hold the aussie longer if you can. More trade update later. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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hisah wrote:Sept is here...
Trades for the final qtr of the year already taken. Long silver a while back @ 19.50, Long AUDJPY @92. Waiting to long USDJPY above 101.50.
Closed shorts of USDZAR, USDINR, NIKKEI, BSE.
Pending long aussie market on break of 5250 level, Nikkei above 14700.
Aussie & aussie stocks forming a heavy bullish charge. @fxtech hold the aussie longer if you can.
More trade update later. JPY crosses seems to be gaining ground, eurjpy,gbpjpy,cadjpy,audjpy,nzdjpy seems to be picking some bullish momentum despite yesterdays gap. Silver bearish shorter term, same to Gold maybe we will see bullish signs in the coming days. Lets see how it goes Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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two Code:
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| two.mq4 |
//| Copyright 2013, MetaQuotes Software Corp. |
//| http://www.metaquotes.net |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
#property copyright "Copyright 2013, MetaQuotes Software Corp."
#property link "http://www.metaquotes.net"
#property indicator_chart_window
//#property indicator_minimum 2
#property indicator_buffers 2
#property indicator_color1 Red
#property indicator_color2 Chartreuse
//--- input parameters
extern int barsToProcess=100;
//--- buffers
double ExtMapBuffer1[];
double ExtMapBuffer2[];
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator initialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int init()
{
//---- indicators
SetIndexStyle(0,DRAW_ARROW);
SetIndexArrow(0,234);
SetIndexBuffer(0,ExtMapBuffer1);
SetIndexEmptyValue(0,0.0);
SetIndexStyle(1,DRAW_ARROW);
SetIndexArrow(1,233);
SetIndexBuffer(1,ExtMapBuffer2);
SetIndexEmptyValue(1,0.0);
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator deinitialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int deinit()
{
//----
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator iteration function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int start()
{
int counted_bars=IndicatorCounted();
int limit = Bars-counted_bars;
//----
for(int i = 0; i<limit;i++)
{
usdd(i);
}
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
void usdd(int i)
{
if(/*iClose("EURJPY",PERIOD_M5,i)<iOpen("EURJPY",PERIOD_M5,i)&&iClose("GBPJPY",PERIOD_M5,i)<iOpen("GBPJPY",PERIOD_M5,i)&&*/iClose("USDJPY",0,i)<iOpen("USDJPY",0,i)&&iOpen("EURUSD",0,i)>iClose("EURUSD",0,i)&&iOpen("GBPUSD",0,i)>iClose("GBPUSD",0,i)&&iRSI("USDJPY",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i)<30) {ExtMapBuffer2[i]= iClose("USDJPY",PERIOD_M5,i); }
if(/*iClose("EURJPY",PERIOD_M5,i)>iOpen("EURJPY",PERIOD_M5,i)&&iClose("GBPJPY",PERIOD_M5,i)>iOpen("GBPJPY",PERIOD_M5,i)&&*/iClose("USDJPY",0,i)>iOpen("USDJPY",0,i)&&iOpen("EURUSD",0,i)<iClose("EURUSD",0,i)&&iOpen("GBPUSD",0,i)<iClose("GBPUSD",0,i)&&iRSI("USDJPY",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i)>70) {ExtMapBuffer1[i]= iClose("USDJPY",PERIOD_M5,i); }
}
Abegin Code:
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Abegin.mq4 |
//| Copyright 2013, MetaQuotes Software Corp. |
//| http://www.metaquotes.net |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
#property copyright "Copyright 2013, MetaQuotes Software Corp."
#property link "http://www.metaquotes.net"
#property indicator_separate_window
#property indicator_minimum 0
#property indicator_maximum 100
#property indicator_buffers 2
#property indicator_color1 Green
#property indicator_color2 Red
//--- input parameters
extern int barsToProcess=100;
//--- buffers
double ExtMapBuffer1[];
double ExtMapBuffer2[];
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator initialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int init()
{
//---- indicators
SetIndexStyle(0,DRAW_LINE);
SetIndexBuffer(0,ExtMapBuffer1);
SetIndexStyle(1,DRAW_LINE);
SetIndexBuffer(1,ExtMapBuffer2);
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator deinitialization function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int deinit()
{
//----
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Custom indicator iteration function |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int start()
{
int counted_bars=IndicatorCounted();
int limit = Bars-counted_bars;
//----
for(int i = 0; i<limit;i++)
{
ExtMapBuffer1[i] = (((200-iRSI("EURUSD",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i))-100)+((200-iRSI("GBPUSD",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i))-100)+iRSI("USDJPY",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i)+iRSI("USDCHF",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i))/4;
ExtMapBuffer2[i] = (iRSI("EURJPY",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i)+iRSI("GBPJPY",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i)+iRSI("CHFJPY",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i)+iRSI("USDJPY",0,15,PRICE_TYPICAL,i))/4;
}
//----
return(0);
}
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Some indicators I've been working on.Based on MT4.To compile open MT4,press F4.It will bring metaeditor.Go to File,New,Custom Indicator,Name it,Next and Finish.Once finished.Copy paste.Press F5 and it will be in the custom indicator list.
Let me explain what I've seen so far from using them and what they are and what they do. They are both based on USDJPY trades.The first one 'two' basically tells you when the dollar has lost or gained among the following currencies EUR,GBP,CHF,JPY.If it appears after a large movement(up or down) avoid using it.If the green arrow shows up it is likely to go down the next two or three trades then up.If the red arrow shows up it is likely to go up the next two or three trades then down.Well sometimes longer
'Abegin' works using RSI.When you load it,load it in the same chart as RSI indicator.They go hand in hand and you will be amazed at how the USDJPY RSI will be in sync with it.The green line is a simple average of RSI of EUR,GBP,CHF,JPY against the dollar.The red line is an average of the JPY against EUR,GBP,CHF,USD.It works best with five minute timeframe.If it is above 69 or below 31 it tends to bounce back and can be very effective for scalping.The market surprisingly cycles like sine waves at times.I'm trying to make something like a bollinger band out of those three RSIs.
The concept behind both indicators is simple.I avoid technical(well,RSI is technical) or fundamental analysis and work on the value the market is giving either the USD or JPY.Just that.Used together they can be valuable.No system is perfect but the good thing is you can analyze past data to see its effectiveness directly on the chart for yourself.Still fine-tuning it hope it helps.Oh,avoid going against the trend and major news events.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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AUD struggling to maintain its bullish, Jpy still looking bearish Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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fxtech wrote:AUD struggling to maintain its bullish, Jpy still looking bearish Short term aussie looking weak, but medium term the structure is bullish bias. Aussie stock mart also supporting bull case in coming weeks after breaking above 5250. Once nikkei breaks above 14700, yen shorts will gain more momentum.
Still holding AUDJPY @92 and looking to long aussie stock mart soon. Still monitoring silver long. PMs have become suddenly weak.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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hisah wrote:fxtech wrote:AUD struggling to maintain its bullish, Jpy still looking bearish Short term aussie looking weak, but medium term the structure is bullish bias. Aussie stock mart also supporting bull case in coming weeks after breaking above 5250. Once nikkei breaks above 14700, yen shorts will gain more momentum.
Still holding AUDJPY @92 and looking to long aussie stock mart soon. Still monitoring silver long. PMs have become suddenly weak. Thank you Hisah, I also agree with your outlook, in the Short term I will be scouting for shorts in GBPUSD,EURUSD, Longs in USDJPY,USDCHF, thats if I get entries Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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Today my focus is on EURJPY, USDJPY Longs, Shorts Audnzd, if I get entries on H4, NZDUSD,GBPUSD,USDCHF am neutral after failing to gain momentum past Mon gaps, UPDATE; Gold n Silver going as to plan, nice moves,thumbs up. JPY weakness continues detailed commentary at www.pipcentre.comDiscipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Fed taper out of the way. Summers withdrawal from fed chairman race was the deal maker. Shorting USD is back in fashion also boosting PMs long bias as well as global stocks. Best bet is going long the hard sold emerging markets. Long aussie market initiated @5260. Firmly in all time high levels. After tapering risk event dead on arrival, JPY & USD are fighting out for the carry funding currency berth. Will have to relook the yen shorts I.e. long AUDJPY. But abenomics will react if JPY tries to strengthen. This USDJPY fight just got interesting and tougher to read. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Is it just me or was the market less volatile than expected?
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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hisah wrote:Fed taper out of the way. Summers withdrawal from fed chairman race was the deal maker. Shorting USD is back in fashion also boosting PMs long bias as well as global stocks. Best bet is going long the hard sold emerging markets.
Long aussie market initiated @5260. Firmly in all time high levels.
After tapering risk event dead on arrival, JPY & USD are fighting out for the carry funding currency berth. Will have to relook the yen shorts I.e. long AUDJPY. But abenomics will react if JPY tries to strengthen. This USDJPY fight just got interesting and tougher to read. Am stepping harder on Jpy gas peddle, am enjoying this trades Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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fxtech wrote:hisah wrote:Fed taper out of the way. Summers withdrawal from fed chairman race was the deal maker. Shorting USD is back in fashion also boosting PMs long bias as well as global stocks. Best bet is going long the hard sold emerging markets.
Long aussie market initiated @5260. Firmly in all time high levels.
After tapering risk event dead on arrival, JPY & USD are fighting out for the carry funding currency berth. Will have to relook the yen shorts I.e. long AUDJPY. But abenomics will react if JPY tries to strengthen. This USDJPY fight just got interesting and tougher to read. Am stepping harder on Jpy gas peddle, am enjoying this trades My nikkei long position @14710 has been triggered. Now I sit tight and expect yen shorts to gain momentum.
@symbols - what volatility is not there? USD was sold on sizable pips... Or what was your volatility expectation?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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hisah wrote:fxtech wrote:hisah wrote:Fed taper out of the way. Summers withdrawal from fed chairman race was the deal maker. Shorting USD is back in fashion also boosting PMs long bias as well as global stocks. Best bet is going long the hard sold emerging markets.
Long aussie market initiated @5260. Firmly in all time high levels.
After tapering risk event dead on arrival, JPY & USD are fighting out for the carry funding currency berth. Will have to relook the yen shorts I.e. long AUDJPY. But abenomics will react if JPY tries to strengthen. This USDJPY fight just got interesting and tougher to read. Am stepping harder on Jpy gas peddle, am enjoying this trades My nikkei long position @14710 has been triggered. Now I sit tight and expect yen shorts to gain momentum.
@symbols - what volatility is not there? USD was sold on sizable pips... Or what was your volatility expectation? The pips were sizable.I expected more speculation before and slightly after the event but it seems as if the market was waiting to take positions afterwards.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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Today my bets are on Long EURAUD Short AUDNZD, Risky trades I must say Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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@fxtech am with you on the EURAUD long especially with the market expecting Frau Merkel to win her 3rd general election and that there will not be a grand coalition with the main opposition SDP. I am also expecting RBA to respond with another rate cut as AUD has risen 6% since they last met and if memory serves me right they said the AUD was "still high" when it was trading at 90 Cents. Mr. Market could be waiting for the showdown on the debt ceiling....... "Fed-watcher Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ said in an interview with Sky Australia today said that the Fed is concerned that a "brawl" between House Republicans and the White House over the government debt limit and debt ceiling that will take place in coming weeks could upset markets, damage the US economy - and this was one of the factors behind their decision Wednesday not to commence "tapering" their QE program." www.forexlive.com/blog/tag/hilsenrath/You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/31/2010 Posts: 325 Location: NAIROBI
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Standing aside as I await close of today's gaps Discipline & sticking to your strategy even when you loosing defines great traders.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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US budget stand off causing markets to sag as Oct closes in. By Oct 17 the deadlock must be resolved. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/22/2011 Posts: 1,325
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I hope you guys know that the budget standoff is just political fanfare. I pointed out the same thing last year when everyone was convinced the US was about to default. People will wait till end time before any default happens, they do have the Fed which prints money at its discretion, so why would they ever default?!
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