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Kenya Economy Watch
Museveni
#341 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 4:55:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 661

NSE wrote:
The NSE 20 Share Index was up 17.75 points to stand at 4677.60.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.13 points to stand at 121.82.


@Hisah insights ?
Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
murchr
#342 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2013 4:56:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Ogas are in town with very fat wallets. Watching to see who will be dining with them
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mwekez@ji
#343 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2013 9:01:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Museveni wrote:

NSE wrote:
The NSE 20 Share Index was up 17.75 points to stand at 4677.60.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.13 points to stand at 121.82.


@Hisah insights ?


Effects of optimism from the recent CBK MPC meeting ...
mwekez@ji
#344 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2013 9:10:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
murchr wrote:
Ogas are in town with very fat wallets. Watching to see who will be dining with them

Museveni
#345 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2013 9:28:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 661
mwekez@ji wrote:
Museveni wrote:

NSE wrote:
The NSE 20 Share Index was up 17.75 points to stand at 4677.60.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.13 points to stand at 121.82.


@Hisah insights ?


Effects of optimism from the recent CBK MPC meeting ...


Strained climb? Meaning a slump is on the way [welcomed btw] or will it hold on for a while considering consumer spending season is just around the corner (with VAT changes in mind of course)?


Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
mwekez@ji
#346 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2013 9:43:15 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Museveni wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Museveni wrote:

NSE wrote:
The NSE 20 Share Index was up 17.75 points to stand at 4677.60.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.13 points to stand at 121.82.


@Hisah insights ?


Effects of optimism from the recent CBK MPC meeting ...


Strained climb? Meaning a slump is on the way [welcomed btw] or will it hold on for a while considering consumer spending season is just around the corner (with VAT changes in mind of course)?




The optimism is genuine and the economy is upbeat. Economic growth will however not come without hurdles. VAT will impact on inflation but the VAT income will have a positive impact on economic development. Short term aint rosy but long term is ... At the exchange, i expect foreigners and institutional investors to continue driving market as individuals figure the way forward ... That said, any slump is welcome for us to pick some more
Museveni
#347 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2013 9:56:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 661
mwekez@ji wrote:
Museveni wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Museveni wrote:

NSE wrote:
The NSE 20 Share Index was up 17.75 points to stand at 4677.60.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.13 points to stand at 121.82.


@Hisah insights ?


Effects of optimism from the recent CBK MPC meeting ...


Strained climb? Meaning a slump is on the way [welcomed btw] or will it hold on for a while considering consumer spending season is just around the corner (with VAT changes in mind of course)?




The optimism is genuine and the economy is upbeat. Economic growth will however not come without hurdles. VAT will impact on inflation but the VAT income will have a positive impact on economic development. Short term aint rosy but long term is ... At the exchange, i expect foreigners and institutional investors to continue driving market as individuals figure the way forward ... That said, any slump is welcome for us to pick some more



Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
mwekez@ji
#348 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2013 2:17:22 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Museveni wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Museveni wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Museveni wrote:

NSE wrote:
The NSE 20 Share Index was up 17.75 points to stand at 4677.60.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.13 points to stand at 121.82.


@Hisah insights ?


Effects of optimism from the recent CBK MPC meeting ...


Strained climb? Meaning a slump is on the way [welcomed btw] or will it hold on for a while considering consumer spending season is just around the corner (with VAT changes in mind of course)?




The optimism is genuine and the economy is upbeat. Economic growth will however not come without hurdles. VAT will impact on inflation but the VAT income will have a positive impact on economic development. Short term aint rosy but long term is ... At the exchange, i expect foreigners and institutional investors to continue driving market as individuals figure the way forward ... That said, any slump is welcome for us to pick some more




Museveni
#349 Posted : Friday, September 06, 2013 3:25:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 661
NSE wrote:
The Month of August 2013 recorded the highest equity turnover in NSE’s history. Turnover increased by 86% to Kshs 21 billion in August 2013 compared to July 2013 turnover of Kshs 11 billion. The main movers were :

- Nation Media Group ( Kshs 6.1 bn),

- Safaricom ( Kshs 2.8 bn),

- East Africa Breweries Ltd (Kshs 2.6 bn),

- KCB Kshs 2.5 bn),

- Equity Bank ( Kshs 1.8 bn) and

- BAT ( Kshs 1.5 bn).

Foreign Investors heavily traded in these counters leaning on the Buy Side ( Kshs 15 billion). This vibrant trading activity is a reflection of increased investor confidence in our market.

NSE wrote:

Today’s turnover rose to Kes.845M on a volume of 52M shares, up from Kes.486M on 17M shares posted yesterday.

The NSE 20 Share Index was up 0.24% during the week to stand at 4708.95 points.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 1.95% during the week to settle at 122.30 points.

Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
washiku
#350 Posted : Saturday, September 07, 2013 12:25:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,095
murchr
#351 Posted : Saturday, September 07, 2013 5:18:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Dangote Cement and a textile milling plant is on the pipeline in Kitui. Dangote says work starts immediately.

http://www.reuters.com/a...nt-idUSBRE98607020130907
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Kausha
#352 Posted : Sunday, September 08, 2013 10:51:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@M7 you are obviously looking at total numbers and since the buy total was exagerated by NMG you conclude foreign investors were buying and are expressing confidence in the economy.

A dose of the truth, the NMG trade was a PT, one large shareholder moving his holdings from the local account to a foreign one. Adjust the trades in August for the NMG trade and you will realize the foregin investors were probably on their way home or at best equal numbers met at the gate moving opposite directions.

As for Dangote I am just curious whether it's a mill he is putting or an integrated plant. Do we have that much headroom for cement in the market or is the investment split into two. I wish he was investing the bulk of that cash in textiles and taking advantage of AGOA which evidentally will never benefit the natives in a significant way.
mwekez@ji
#353 Posted : Sunday, September 08, 2013 4:50:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@Kausha Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

Net foreign inflow in the month of August was KES 10,108 M

• NMG; 6,081
• KCB; 1,091
• Equity Bank; 1,012
• EABL; 977
• Safaricom; 650
• Others; 296
• Total; 10,108

... so even by striping the NMG inflow, net foreign inflow was KES 4,027 M
murchr
#354 Posted : Sunday, September 08, 2013 5:27:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Kausha wrote:
@M7 you are obviously looking at total numbers and since the buy total was exagerated by NMG you conclude foreign investors were buying and are expressing confidence in the economy.

A dose of the truth, the NMG trade was a PT, one large shareholder moving his holdings from the local account to a foreign one. Adjust the trades in August for the NMG trade and you will realize the foregin investors were probably on their way home or at best equal numbers met at the gate moving opposite directions.

As for Dangote I am just curious whether it's a mill he is putting or an integrated plant. Do we have that much headroom for cement in the market or is the investment split into two. I wish he was investing the bulk of that cash in textiles and taking advantage of AGOA which evidentally will never benefit the natives in a significant way.


A tycoon like Dangote must have done enough research. 2ndly, do you know we still import Cement? We're looking at the bigger picture here...Kenya has not even scratched the surface in the real estate sector, leave alone everything else that may need to be constructed.

As for the textile industry, I expect some policy to be enacted to kill the sectors that are mutumba and the imports from china. Its time we grew this industry from the raw materials to designers who will develop a finished product.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mwekez@ji
#355 Posted : Sunday, September 08, 2013 7:30:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Kausha
#356 Posted : Sunday, September 08, 2013 8:26:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@muchr, do your bit of homework, I asked whether Dangote was setting up a mill or an integrated plant. We are in short supply of limestone deposits limiting clinker production. My hypothesis is that any new entrant will be seeking to mill except the guys setting up in Pokot. If that is the case, I am just wondering what upside is there becasue we are a significant next exporter of cement. What we import is clinker, differentiate between this and cement production. Kenya does not import cement. The landed cost of cement at mombasa makes it a non commercial venture to import cement. If at all we import it would only be the chinese contractors shipping in their materials as they more often do.

On textiles we don't need any policy, every policy is in place and worse of all our AGOA quota is largely unexploited and left to India and pakistan textile producers to exploit. Leave mitumba out of this, you sound like Kirubi. Mitumba even costs more than those chinese clothes in the shops but people go and buy mitumba - ever heard of value for money. Simple example look at your budding footballer where does he purchase boots that he can afford? you know the answer, what has this got to do with policy...look at Bata, the italian turn around MD they heard figured mitumba was not the problem because people were buying more expensive second hand shoes and leaving old fashioned bata shoes costing less on the shelf. Once Bata addressed their problem of poor uptake of their products from this angle they ended up a serious success story. Infact Bata loves second hand shoes because they provide serious market reasearch on trends and size of potential markets for their products.
Kausha
#357 Posted : Sunday, September 08, 2013 8:30:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Kausha Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

Net foreign inflow in the month of August was KES 10,108 M

• NMG; 6,081
• KCB; 1,091
• Equity Bank; 1,012
• EABL; 977
• Safaricom; 650
• Others; 296
• Total; 10,108

... so even by striping the NMG inflow, net foreign inflow was KES 4,027 M


I see you have left out the huge BAT trade....very selective I suppose.
mwekez@ji
#358 Posted : Sunday, September 08, 2013 9:12:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Kausha wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Kausha Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you

Net foreign inflow in the month of August was KES 10,108 M

• NMG; 6,081
• KCB; 1,091
• Equity Bank; 1,012
• EABL; 977
• Safaricom; 650
• Others; 296
• Total; 10,108

... so even by striping the NMG inflow, net foreign inflow was KES 4,027 M


I see you have left out the huge BAT trade....very selective I suppose.


Come on @Kausha!!! huge BAT trade??? Its in the "others". ... I picked the top 5 august movers. The other 59 listed companies, including BAT, are in the "others"
murchr
#359 Posted : Monday, September 09, 2013 12:29:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Kausha wrote:
@muchr, do your bit of homework, I asked whether Dangote was setting up a mill or an integrated plant. We are in short supply of limestone deposits limiting clinker production. My hypothesis is that any new entrant will be seeking to mill except the guys setting up in Pokot. If that is the case, I am just wondering what upside is there becasue we are a significant next exporter of cement. What we import is clinker, differentiate between this and cement production. Kenya does not import cement. The landed cost of cement at mombasa makes it a non commercial venture to import cement. If at all we import it would only be the chinese contractors shipping in their materials as they more often do.

On textiles we don't need any policy, every policy is in place and worse of all our AGOA quota is largely unexploited and left to India and pakistan textile producers to exploit. Leave mitumba out of this, you sound like Kirubi. Mitumba even costs more than those chinese clothes in the shops but people go and buy mitumba - ever heard of value for money. Simple example look at your budding footballer where does he purchase boots that he can afford? you know the answer, what has this got to do with policy...look at Bata, the italian turn around MD they heard figured mitumba was not the problem because people were buying more expensive second hand shoes and leaving old fashioned bata shoes costing less on the shelf. Once Bata addressed their problem of poor uptake of their products from this angle they ended up a serious success story. Infact Bata loves second hand shoes because they provide serious market reasearch on trends and size of potential markets for their products.


From the interview that Dangote had with the local press, he clearly said that he is not going to be importing anything including clinker everything will be locally sourced apart from the machinery ofcourse...source Capital FM TV. And yes we do import cement alot of it infact the East African Cement Producers Association were complaining about the issue a while back. Why do you think the price of a bag has shot so high? Demand iko tena mingi sana ..Do a google search and you shall get that from the news.

You know..the issue is not about how much Kenya can take in but how much Africa and in this case East Africa, can take in and anyway why cant we export? I know you have refused to think beyond what we can consume now (remember we argued about the power we need a while back KEN vs KPLC when KENG was 7/- and KPLC 14/- time did prove me right ha!) But you need to just leave that dark continent to know that we indeed are in the dark ages.

On textile. I dont understand why you get all personal when arguing out facts, anyway...to say that the mitumba industry dint kill the local textile industry is to be blind beyond words. Ati I sound like Ktirubi...well may be...you talk about value for money in mitumba, why cant we have value in what we make? Are we such dunderheads that we cant get designers who can make something that can be appreciated by us and the rest of the world? Cant we make a garment that would last? The jobs that can be created right from the production of cotton to he selling of whatever cloth cannot be ignored.

On AGOA...the last time I checked it was an African thing..I dint know that the hand was extended to Indians anyway, am not so much interested in AGOA. If and when the Americans decide to do away with the policy and take those jobs back home then that goes away. As its happening now in IT..so many jobs are going back to America look at how the Rupee is crumbling. Africa needs to start trading with itself if it wants to do away with poverty. There's no value in that Mutumba underwear that was "Donated" and ended up being sold to you at 50/-. Start looking at the bigger picture.


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Museveni
#360 Posted : Monday, September 09, 2013 6:34:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 661
@kausha, @Mw€k€$a§¡ gave a precise response addressing soko-data.

Our Oga brothers had to show how serious they were by bringing along Bw. Dangote, their most prized economic asset. Good PR for Dangote & co but no comment till they "show us the money!"
Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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