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KenolKobil & Total-Kenya Valuation and Recommendation
Kausha
#31 Posted : Friday, August 23, 2013 1:30:50 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H results will be poor. At best a break-even affair after finance costs but more likely to be a loss. KK has indicated as much PLUS the new CEO probably wants to clean house. The 'profit' [after tax] is expected to be in the period 2H 2013 though the full year will be break-even at best.

It's an eye towards 2014 that counts!


@VVS really, poor results, really...!

Admittedly the results were late compared to expectations but a week or two later than usual can be excused seeing even the Lion is struggling to report on time. Good thing though the results were not a pot of salted soup as somebody was speculating. Thing is KK will have a stellar set of results for 2013. They have 1.3 to write back and about USD 15m assets are sold out. you also notice the trimmed 600m from opex in a quarter which had retrenchments as well. The KPRL reparation has crystallized but payability will be tricky.
omega
#32 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 7:02:25 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/9/2009
Posts: 85
VituVingiSana
#33 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 1:57:24 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
Kausha wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H results will be poor. At best a break-even affair after finance costs but more likely to be a loss. KK has indicated as much PLUS the new CEO probably wants to clean house. The 'profit' [after tax] is expected to be in the period 2H 2013 though the full year will be break-even at best.

It's an eye towards 2014 that counts!


@VVS really, poor results, really...!

Admittedly the results were late compared to expectations but a week or two later than usual can be excused seeing even the Lion is struggling to report on time. Good thing though the results were not a pot of salted soup as somebody was speculating. Thing is KK will have a stellar set of results for 2013. They have 1.3 to write back and about USD 15m assets are sold out. you also notice the trimmed 600m from opex in a quarter which had retrenchments as well. The KPRL reparation has crystallized but payability will be tricky.
KK's management seemed to indicate a poor 1H. That said, great to see them under-promise & over-deliver. 2H 2013 will be profitable but not that great [Operating Income] but... 2014 is where it is at! Lower interest costs will help BUT there were product outages at KK for 7-10 days in August. I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good. The sale of assets will bring in cash. Good coz the debt is high & any reduction is welcome. Though these are one-off gigs. We need biz back to normal including the low-margin but large volumes trading activities.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
muganda
#34 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 7:00:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
VituVingiSana wrote:
…I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good.


The problem where I'm concerned is I don't seem to fuel at KenolKobil with ease. I can remeber going to OilLibya frequently, Shell once in a while, and Total a few times. How come I don't just encounter these KK guys more?

mwekez@ji
#35 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 11:24:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
... #KK We need biz back to normal including the low-margin but large volumes trading activities.


Agreed Chief VVS
dunkang
#36 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 12:05:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
HY2013 data
...................... KenolKobil.....Total(K)
Sales................ 65.27B ........... 65.789B
Gross Prof....... 2.342B .......... 2.863B
Operat cost ... (1.175B)..... (2.104B)
Finance cost... (801.5M) ..... (154.6M)
Forex loss ...... (158.5M)...... (67.3M)
P.B.T ................. 199.1M ........ 757.1M
PAT ................... 147.4M ........ 461.3M
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

VituVingiSana
#37 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 1:13:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
Kenol's PAT belongs to the Common Equity Shareholders. Total Kenya Common Equity Shareholders have to share the PAT with the Preference Shares. The Total Common Equity Shareholders are lucky that Outre-Mer is lending Total Kenya 'cheap' money but it also means there is a 'cash call' waiting if the Preference Shares have to be repaid/redeemed.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kamaug
#38 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 4:03:22 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/27/2010
Posts: 26
Location: NBI
muganda wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
…I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good.


The problem where I'm concerned is I don't seem to fuel at KenolKobil with ease. I can remeber going to OilLibya frequently, Shell once in a while, and Total a few times. How come I don't just encounter these KK guys more?


By the way shell service stations have the best customer service of em'all..
Clean uniforms, helpful staff... Total is another story.. I avoid them coz they are perenially understaffed so you have to wait while one guy goes round filling vehicles at the various pumps.
WTF
mwanahisa
#39 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 1:26:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
My patience has finally been rewarded. Resumed my re-entry into KK today and managed a nice chunk of shares at 8.20 to 8.30. I am ready to hang in here for a while, as I suspect that it is still possible for the counter to slip below Kshs 8, if we get another scare in the market. Still, I believe most of the bad news is now fully factored in the price.
mkeiyd
#40 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 4:20:33 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
mwanahisa wrote:
My patience has finally been rewarded. Resumed my re-entry into KK today and managed a nice chunk of shares at 8.20 to 8.30. I am ready to hang in here for a while, as I suspect that it is still possible for the counter to slip below Kshs 8, if we get another scare in the market. Still, I believe most of the bad news is now fully factored in the price.


@mwanahisa. Welcome to the hole, you can't fall hard from here. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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