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Kenya Economy Watch
Cde Monomotapa
#321 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 5:36:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Imported discretionary goodies & gadgets should be kept from crowding the import window, hence current a/c, for as long as possible. However, there are some relentless suchs among us so, let them continue picking up the tab.
Cde Monomotapa
#322 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 6:06:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Imported discretionary goodies & gadgets should be kept from crowding the import window, hence current a/c, for as long as possible. However, there are some relentless suchs among us so, let them continue picking up the tab.


Case in point, the rise of Jameson, JD, JW, HK etc which we don't brew locally but have to import to satisfy new found tastes smile We contribute to our own woes too btw. Hehee..
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#323 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 6:15:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.


Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea.


ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow

VAT bill will have a spike effect on inflation (plus crude oil's current price spike) which will make CBK defensive (hawkish) on CBR before year end.


CBK has alleviated fears that it could turn hawkish and maintained CBR at 8.50 percent. ... It further notes that new VAT measures will contribute to short-term increases in inflation, but the effects will be mild. ... The MPC note is by and large bullish about economic growth smile

Good for the NSE. Major gamble though with rising inflation as @Hisah pointed out. CBK may be forced to make regular interventions at the Forex mkt, to protect KES. Eurobond however may help cool things,should it be successful.
@SufficientlyP
Scubidu
#324 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 11:17:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
I'm sure they're expecting eurobond inflows to stabilize the shilling as the VAT bill wrecks all sort of havoc. It's a gamble with the hold decision but everyone knows you must always stack the cards in your favour to generate the desired outcome. The case of fuzzy (fudged) inflation stats that influenced the decision. The core inflation figure aka non-food-non-fuel supposedly went down (3.86) according to the MPC statement leading to the assumption that there were no demand driven factors in play in August. But when you go to the statistic bureau website (www.knbs.or.ke) and download the latest CPI it's a conflicting story.

Food and fuel indices (2 items)

Food - 9.74
Housing, water, fuel - 4.58

Headline inflation - 6.67

Non-food-non-fuel (10 items)

Alcoholic beverages - 6.10
Clothing and footwear - 4.79
Furnishings - 3.62
Health - 4.33
Transport - 6.66
Communication - 3.62 (minus)
Recreation and culture - 3.87
Education - 4.83
Restaurant and hotel - 6.98
Miscellaneous - 4.47

Core inflation - 3.86?

The law of averages is simple. The average can't be statistically lower than the sum of its parts. Thus core inflation can't be 3.86 based on the 10 items above that form it. Yet this figure is the evidence of the declining threat from demand driven inflation.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
murchr
#325 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 2:59:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES 557% INCREASE IN ESTIMATES OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES IN THE SOUTH LOKICHAR BASIN IN KENYA AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#326 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 5:26:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
I'm sure they're expecting eurobond inflows to stabilize the shilling as the VAT bill wrecks all sort of havoc. It's a gamble with the hold decision but everyone knows you must always stack the cards in your favour to generate the desired outcome. The case of fuzzy (fudged) inflation stats that influenced the decision. The core inflation figure aka non-food-non-fuel supposedly went down (3.86) according to the MPC statement leading to the assumption that there were no demand driven factors in play in August. But when you go to the statistic bureau website (www.knbs.or.ke) and download the latest CPI it's a conflicting story.

Food and fuel indices (2 items)

Food - 9.74
Housing, water, fuel - 4.58

Headline inflation - 6.67

Non-food-non-fuel (10 items)

Alcoholic beverages - 6.10
Clothing and footwear - 4.79
Furnishings - 3.62
Health - 4.33
Transport - 6.66
Communication - 3.62 (minus)
Recreation and culture - 3.87
Education - 4.83
Restaurant and hotel - 6.98
Miscellaneous - 4.47

Core inflation - 3.86?

The law of averages is simple. The average can't be statistically lower than the sum of its parts. Thus core inflation can't be 3.86 based on the 10 items above that form it. Yet this figure is the evidence of the declining threat from demand driven inflation.

The core inflation gimmick d'oh!

I still expect treasury to put out a $2 billion eurobond if the market permits it.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#327 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 5:32:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES 557% INCREASE IN ESTIMATES OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES IN THE SOUTH LOKICHAR BASIN IN KENYA AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES


Try and imagine the net effect when the billions barrel output gets hit plus natgas then rare earth, coal, gold, geothermal et al... Hii mapesa mutapeleka wapi...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#328 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 5:40:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES 557% INCREASE IN ESTIMATES OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES IN THE SOUTH LOKICHAR BASIN IN KENYA AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES


Try and imagine the net effect when the billions barrel output gets hit plus natgas then rare earth, coal, gold, geothermal et al... Hii mapesa mutapeleka wapi...


Don't get us overly excited, the other players holding licenses should drill fast we need to start dreaming early
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#329 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 6:01:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.


Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea.


ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow

I forgot to mention that my major concern is on farm inputs being taxed. The effect of this on food security is like playing with fire esp with a bad weather period.

But when you take 'candies' from IMF/WB such are the conditions (bad for you, good for them). If life does get tough for wanjiku in the next 4yrs, jubilee will be jobless after the 1st term as well as many sitting politicians...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Metasploit
#330 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 9:16:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
How Manu Chandaria Mastered the African Market

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
mwekez@ji
#331 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 9:48:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
I'm sure they're expecting eurobond inflows to stabilize the shilling as the VAT bill wrecks all sort of havoc. It's a gamble with the hold decision but everyone knows you must always stack the cards in your favour to generate the desired outcome. The case of fuzzy (fudged) inflation stats that influenced the decision. The core inflation figure aka non-food-non-fuel supposedly went down (3.86) according to the MPC statement leading to the assumption that there were no demand driven factors in play in August. But when you go to the statistic bureau website (www.knbs.or.ke) and download the latest CPI it's a conflicting story.

Food and fuel indices (2 items)

Food - 9.74
Housing, water, fuel - 4.58

Headline inflation - 6.67

Non-food-non-fuel (10 items)

Alcoholic beverages - 6.10
Clothing and footwear - 4.79
Furnishings - 3.62
Health - 4.33
Transport - 6.66
Communication - 3.62 (minus)
Recreation and culture - 3.87
Education - 4.83
Restaurant and hotel - 6.98
Miscellaneous - 4.47

Core inflation - 3.86?

The law of averages is simple. The average can't be statistically lower than the sum of its parts. Thus core inflation can't be 3.86 based on the 10 items above that form it. Yet this figure is the evidence of the declining threat from demand driven inflation.

The core inflation gimmick d'oh!

I still expect treasury to put out a $2 billion eurobond if the market permits it.


d'oh! @Scubidu @Hisah, aint all those items >6% food and fuel items save for housing? .... $2B eurobond is welcomed
Scubidu
#332 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 10:44:48 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Turns out the restaurant & hotel index is no longer a core inflation item. so that's why the core inflation number is 3.86. Apparently the costs of restaurants & hotels is so close to food and housing that it gets excluded d'oh! . I don't get the logic.

Yeah i think we can absorb $2bln, mind you we still have a syndicated loan to pay off early next year.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee1
#333 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 11:20:20 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
how will this eurobond work? will funds be directly used to pay for fcy projects as they claim or will it be used to fund budget deficits in which case how will it be repaid? ama it will keep being rolled over and only coupons repaid until we sell some oil?
Scubidu
#334 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 8:34:45 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
how will this eurobond work? will funds be directly used to pay for fcy projects as they claim or will it be used to fund budget deficits in which case how will it be repaid? ama it will keep being rolled over and only coupons repaid until we sell some oil?


The eurobond will be rolled over until something else can replace it. Partly used to redeem the previous bank loan and the remainder converted for local road projects. Don't know what it'll mean for debt sustainability too take usd 2 billion in one go.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
washiku
#335 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 10:14:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,095
ecstacy
#336 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 10:33:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449


Applause Applause This is great news. Let us pray for wisdom for our leaders whilst tightening that Mining Bill. If we go the Norwegian route, KE is destined for greatness in this region.
kizee1
#337 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 2:17:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
this is quite something!

If these were to be all proven Kenya would be rank among the top oil producers in sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria's proven estimates at 37 billion barrels, while those of Angola, the second top producer, are at 10 billion barrels....report says the estimated reserves at lokichar alone are 20billion! twice that of angola!!
josimar
#338 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 3:33:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/6/2010
Posts: 242
The most important thing is to have the oil resources utilized well. We already have foreign income earners from Tea , coffee and tourism. What baffles me todate is why the roads in the tea growing areas are very bad , just pay a visit to KTDA factories in Meru area and You will witness this. Masai Mara brings revenue to Narok county yet the roads leading there are horrible. Look at the roads in Mombasa tourist areas. Therefore , I would not want to sound a sadist but I highly doubt even with revenues from oil Our lifes will not change.
mkeiyd
#339 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 4:38:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
josimar wrote:
The most important thing is to have the oil resources utilized well. We already have foreign income earners from Tea , coffee and tourism. What baffles me todate is why the roads in the tea growing areas are very bad , just pay a visit to KTDA factories in Meru area and You will witness this. Masai Mara brings revenue to Narok county yet the roads leading there are horrible. Look at the roads in Mombasa tourist areas. Therefore , I would not want to sound a sadist but I highly doubt even with revenues from oil Our lifes will not change.


Our lives will change.

Oil bill is the largest hole for our forex. Seal that hole and hard currencies[moreso usd] become cheaper for import of machinery and raw materials.
Heck throw in automobiles,liqour,"unga" etc etc.

Lives will mos def change.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#340 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 4:51:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
mkeiyd wrote:
josimar wrote:
The most important thing is to have the oil resources utilized well. We already have foreign income earners from Tea , coffee and tourism. What baffles me todate is why the roads in the tea growing areas are very bad , just pay a visit to KTDA factories in Meru area and You will witness this. Masai Mara brings revenue to Narok county yet the roads leading there are horrible. Look at the roads in Mombasa tourist areas. Therefore , I would not want to sound a sadist but I highly doubt even with revenues from oil Our lifes will not change.


Our lives will change.

Oil bill is the largest hole for our forex. Seal that hole and hard currencies[moreso usd] become cheaper for import of machinery and raw materials.
Heck throw in automobiles,liqour,"unga" etc etc.

Lives will mos def change.


The only risk with oil is that the population could transform from the innovators that we currently are to consumers akin Arabs, Angolans etc. We need to get the Norwegian playbook ASAP
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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