Wazua
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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August inflation stands at 6.67% y/y (0.30% m/m). Well within government target with upper limit of 7.5%. Over to MPC meeting on Tue, 3rd September ;-) http://www.knbs.or.ke/cpi/cpi082013.pdf
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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VAT bill is effective 1st September so the upper limit should be hit soon. Hearing that the weather guys will issue a statement telling us that October short rains will be poor. But given the fact that the real economy isn't humming, don't think we'll see a change in the CBR. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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@Scubidu, long long time. welcome back. Your thoughts are also very welcomed on kenya debt watch
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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mwekez@ji wrote:@Scubidu, long long time. welcome back. Your thoughts are also very welcomed on kenya debt watch Ditto!! Welcome back. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@Scubidu, long long time. welcome back. Your thoughts are also very welcomed on kenya debt watch Ditto!! Welcome back. Cheers guys. Was on a sabbatical of sorts  looking at my bank statement and seen that 10% excise duty  amp; interesting that all these new tax measures are a drop in the ocean given the cash the governors are demanding/wasting. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Scubidu wrote:VAT bill is effective 1st September so the upper limit should be hit soon. Hearing that the weather guys will issue a statement telling us that October short rains will be poor. But given the fact that the real economy isn't humming, don't think we'll see a change in the CBR. Welcome back @scubidu.
I also don't like this VAT bill timing inflation et al. Then the excise duty on financial services esp mobile money. Why put speed bumps on the mobile money highway while you are trying to stimulate mshinani micro-economy???  Actually the 5.6% projected GDP expansion for 2013 is quite ambitious with a tax minded regime...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Scubidu wrote:VAT bill is effective 1st September so the upper limit should be hit soon. Hearing that the weather guys will issue a statement telling us that October short rains will be poor. But given the fact that the real economy isn't humming, don't think we'll see a change in the CBR. Welcome back @scubidu.
I also don't like this VAT bill timing inflation et al. Then the excise duty on financial services esp mobile money. Why put speed bumps on the mobile money highway while you are trying to stimulate mshinani micro-economy??? Actually the 5.6% projected GDP expansion for 2013 is quite ambitious with a tax minded regime...
I guess guys will freak out when they see the initial spike in inflation next month. Timing isn't that good but what choice does gava have when they have limited revenue sources (and huge bills). But apparently the VAT bill is supposed to streamline the tax regime and reduce the current loopholes. For the longest time caviar was tax exempt, which is ridic. Funny thing I have talked to so many people on the street with business and they're telling me it's tough now (worse than last year). So I'm wondering what this 5.6% captures? “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Kenyan shilling steady ahead of interest rate decision
The bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to leave its benchmark lending rate on hold at 8.50 percent until the end of the year to counter rising inflation and weakening currencies, a Reuters poll showed. At 1300 GMT market close, the shilling traded at 87.45/65 per dollar, unchanged from Friday's close. Traders said there was talk in the market of a possible small rate increase after Kenya's inflation rate climbed to 6.67 percent in August from 6.02 percent a month earlier, though a hold was still widely expected.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation. Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Starting from yesterday, Kigali government has more than TRIPLED its road toll charges on all Tanzanian trucks/lorries entering Rwanda. The TZ trucks are now to pay $500 per truck from $153 that trucks from all other EAC member states pay. This is viewed as an atempt by Kigali to force its citizens to use only the Mombasa port in Kenya. Will we see Express Kenya gain from this Dodoma-Kigali 'cold war'? DATA:- - Rwanda pop. is 12.3M which is 30.1% that of Kenya - 67% of all Rwandese cargo currently pass through TZ with the rest mostly passing through KE-UG route. - Rwandese goods contributed around 8.4% of the Dar-es- salaam port cargo in 2012. - The Dar-Kigali road route is about 1200km km long, whilst the Mombasa-Kampala-Kigali road route is 1450km long. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Scubidu wrote:hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation. Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea. ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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dunkang wrote:Starting from yesterday, Kigali government has more than TRIPLED its road toll charges on all Tanzanian trucks/lorries entering Rwanda. The TZ trucks are now to pay $500 per truck from $153 that trucks from all other EAC member states pay. This is viewed as an atempt by Kigali to force its citizens to use only the Mombasa port in Kenya.
Will we see Express Kenya gain from this Dodoma-Kigali 'cold war'?
DATA:-
- Rwanda pop. is 12.3M which is 30.1% that of Kenya
- 67% of all Rwandese cargo currently pass through TZ with the rest mostly passing through KE-UG route.
- Rwandese goods contributed around 8.4% of the Dar-es- salaam port cargo in 2012.
- The Dar-Kigali road route is about 1200km km long, whilst the Mombasa-Kampala-Kigali road route is 1450km long. I suppose the end game here is the rail from KE-UG-RW. Better to consolidate all/most activities at one port. Why have your customs officers at MSA and not using it while at the same time levying your citizens for the imports (to pay for the rail)? Could see the trucking biz through Kenya increase indeed for the duration (2018*). Let's see.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:dunkang wrote:Starting from yesterday, Kigali government has more than TRIPLED its road toll charges on all Tanzanian trucks/lorries entering Rwanda. The TZ trucks are now to pay $500 per truck from $153 that trucks from all other EAC member states pay. This is viewed as an atempt by Kigali to force its citizens to use only the Mombasa port in Kenya.
Will we see Express Kenya gain from this Dodoma-Kigali 'cold war'?
DATA:-
- Rwanda pop. is 12.3M which is 30.1% that of Kenya
- 67% of all Rwandese cargo currently pass through TZ with the rest mostly passing through KE-UG route.
- Rwandese goods contributed around 8.4% of the Dar-es- salaam port cargo in 2012.
- The Dar-Kigali road route is about 1200km km long, whilst the Mombasa-Kampala-Kigali road route is 1450km long. I suppose the end game here is the rail from KE-UG-RW. Better to consolidate all/most activities at one port. Why have your customs officers at MSA and not using it while at the same time levying your citizens for the imports (to pay for the rail)? Could see the trucking biz through Kenya increase indeed for the duration (2018*). Let's see. Very interesting "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:Scubidu wrote:hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation. Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea. ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow VAT bill will have a spike effect on inflation (plus crude oil's current price spike) which will make CBK defensive (hawkish) on CBR before year end.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Just seen this tweet. Someone confirm if this is the case since I can't see anything from the RSS feeds from the media streams. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:Just seen this tweet. Someone confirm if this is the case since I can't see anything from the RSS feeds from the media streams.
;-) http://www.centralbank.go.ke/im...September%203%202013.pdf
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Scubidu wrote:hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation. Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea. ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow VAT bill will have a spike effect on inflation (plus crude oil's current price spike) which will make CBK defensive (hawkish) on CBR before year end. CBK has alleviated fears that it could turn hawkish and maintained CBR at 8.50 percent. ... It further notes that new VAT measures will contribute to short-term increases in inflation, but the effects will be mild. ... The MPC note is by and large bullish about economic growth
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