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Kenya Economy Watch
mkeiyd
#281 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 10:30:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
At some point in the future, Tanzania might end up pulling out of EAC. If only those headquarters were not in Arusha.Majimaji rebellion!
limanika
#282 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 11:09:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
By the way, who knows what the economic justification is for TZ to borrow and build a new port at Bagamoyo to handle 20million TEU per annum when total current EAC demand is less than 2million TEU and average regional economic growth at 5%? At the same time TZ’s electricity and road network in tatters. Isn’t gradual expansion of existing ports that slightly outpaces economic growth more reasonable?
mkeiyd
#283 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 1:46:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
limanika wrote:
By the way, who knows what the economic justification is for TZ to borrow and build a new port at Bagamoyo to handle 20million TEU per annum when total current EAC demand is less than 2million TEU and average regional economic growth at 5%? At the same time TZ’s electricity and road network in tatters. Isn’t gradual expansion of existing ports that slightly outpaces economic growth more reasonable?


Cheap credit from the Chinese and the need to stamp some form of authority on their Kenyan neighbors.
Something grandeur, to have "the biggest @$$#& in East and Central Africa".

For Kenya, that Bagamoyo port will make our Mombasa expand and get more efficient to stem the on coming tide [whether real or just a phantom}.
All the best to them,we will all learn something from this Bagamoyo.
Metasploit
#284 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 2:02:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mkeiyd wrote:
limanika wrote:
By the way, who knows what the economic justification is for TZ to borrow and build a new port at Bagamoyo to handle 20million TEU per annum when total current EAC demand is less than 2million TEU and average regional economic growth at 5%? At the same time TZ’s electricity and road network in tatters. Isn’t gradual expansion of existing ports that slightly outpaces economic growth more reasonable?


Cheap credit from the Chinese and the need to stamp some form of authority on their Kenyan neighbors.
Something grandeur, to have "the biggest @$$#& in East and Central Africa".

For Kenya, that Bagamoyo port will make our Mombasa expand and get more efficient to stem the on coming tide [whether real or just a phantom}.
All the best to them,we will all learn something from this Bagamoyo.


Depends on how you look at it..But on the bigger picture can be beneficiary to EA.We need competition and efficiency.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
limanika
#285 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 2:28:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
mkeiyd wrote:
limanika wrote:
By the way, who knows what the economic justification is for TZ to borrow and build a new port at Bagamoyo to handle 20million TEU per annum when total current EAC demand is less than 2million TEU and average regional economic growth at 5%? At the same time TZ’s electricity and road network in tatters. Isn’t gradual expansion of existing ports that slightly outpaces economic growth more reasonable?


Cheap credit from the Chinese and the need to stamp some form of authority on their Kenyan neighbors.
Something grandeur, to have "the biggest @$$#& in East and Central Africa".

For Kenya, that Bagamoyo port will make our Mombasa expand and get more efficient to stem the on coming tide [whether real or just a phantom}.
All the best to them,we will all learn something from this Bagamoyo.

If that is the case then that is no economic justification. This has all the hallmarks to turn into white elephant. But then, all the best from me as well.
mwekez@ji
#286 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 11:52:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji
#287 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 12:05:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah
#288 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 3:13:53 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Upside down lending structure. Manufacturing needs to be the one taking the lion's share on the lending pie. Also worrying this real estate lending chunk assuming real estate overheats as well as the household lending huge pie.

http://www.businessdaily...6/-/r0j3kh/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#289 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 2:53:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
GGK
#290 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 4:44:56 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 608
Location: Ruiru


Sounds like Kenya is borrowing to pay pay other lenders. Unless for debt consolidation where the new loan is at far much better terms... we need to go slow.
"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
murchr
#291 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 2:57:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
From the office of the President

Quote:
THE 2ND INFRASTRUCTURE SUMMIT

JOINT COMMUNIQUÉ

THE WHITESANDS BEACH RESORT & SPA,

MOMBASA, KENYA

28TH AUGUST, 2013.

His Excellency Uhuru Kenyatta, President of the Republic of Kenya, H.E.Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda, H.E. Paul Kagame, President of the Republic of Rwanda as well as Hon. Dr. Barnaba Marial Benjamin, the Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation representing H.E. Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, President of the Republic of South Sudan attended the 2nd Infrastructure Summit on 28th August, 2013, in Mombasa, Kenya.

Eng. Deogratias Rurimunzu, Minister for Transport, Public Works and Equipment representing H.E. Pierre Nkurunziza, President of the Republic of Burundi was in attendance.

The Summit was convened to review progress of implementation of the decisions reached during the 1st Infrastructure Summit that was held in Entebbe on 24th – 25 June, 2013, to provide direction on the deepening of regional integration and to integrate the Republic of Burundi and the Republic of South Sudan into the Summit.

The Summit was also attended by Ministers and other senior government officials from the five Member States.

The talks were held in a friendly and warm brotherly atmosphere. The Heads of State and Government welcomed the participation of the Republic of South Sudan and the Republic of Burundi in the Summit.

The Summit noted the progress reports on the implementation of the decisions of the 1st Infrastructure Summit held in Entebbe on 24th -25th June, 2013 and directed as follows:

A. RAILWAY DEVELOPMENT

· The construction of the Mombasa-Nairobi segment commences by November, 2013 and the completion of the entire Mombasa-Kampala-Kigali project by March 2018.

· The Ministers responsible to put into place a monitoring and evaluation mechanism to ensure the project remains on course, within budgetary provisions and its timely completion,

· The Malaba-Kampala-Kigali railway line with a spur to Muko to be completed by March 2018

· The Tororo-Gulu-Nimule line be upgraded to SGR line by March 2018,

· To extend the railway line from Kigali to Bujumbura by March 2018,

· The Kenya Railway Training Institute and the Tororo Road/Railway Polytechnic be developed into regional training centers for railway construction, maintenance and operations

B. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS PIPELINE DEVELOPMENT

· The Ministers responsible to report on progress on the construction of the Eldoret-Kampala pipeline and the feasibility study for the Kampala-Kigali segment during the 3rd Infrastructure Summit in October, 2013.

C. CRUDE OIL PIPELINE DEVELOPMENT

· Necessary measures be taken to ensure that South Sudan- Lokichar- Hoima crude oil pipeline is integrated into the LAPSSET corridor project by 31st December, 2013 depending on the finalization of the review of the commercialization plan currently under discussion with oil companies by the government of Uganda

D. PROGRESS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF OIL REFINERY DEVELOPMENT

· The partner States to confirm their participation in the development of the Uganda oil refinery by 15th October 2013,

· Finalize the harmonization of the development of the refinery with that of the planned petroleum products’ pipelines.

E. POWER GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION

· Member States to make budgetary provisions for implementation of interconnectivity transmission and distribution lines,

· The Ministers Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda responsible to ensure that the MOU on common interconnectivity project is signed before the next Summit.

F. EAST AFRICA SINGLE TOURIST VISA AND THE USE OF ID AS TRAVEL DOCUMENT


· The Ministers responsible to report on the progress of the decision on EAC Single Tourist Visa valid in Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda at the 3rd Infrastructure Summit in October, 2013, in readiness for implementation by 1st January, 2014.

· Ministers responsible to finalize on the modalities of operationalization of the use of national ID cards as travel documents before 15th October, 2013, in readiness for implementation by 1st January, 2014.

G. SINGLE CUSTOMS TERRITORY

· Member States to ensure implementation of decision on non-tariff barriers (axle load, weigh bridges and road blocks) and expeditious movement of goods and persons by 15th October 2013,

· Ministers responsible to harmonize clearance procedures by 30th October 2013,

· Kenya to report on the integration of operations of the RRA and URA at the Port of Mombasa during the next Summit,

· Ministers responsible to report on the effectiveness of the measures undertaken by all member States to ensure ease of movements of cargo from the Port of Mombasa to respective destinations,

· Ministers responsible to report on legal and cost implications of the Single Customs Territory (SCT),

H. FAST TRACKING POLITICAL FEDERATION

· Ministers responsible to meet in Kampala from 10th -12th September, 2013 and report on the roadmap by 15th September, 2013 as well as prepare a zero draft of the federal constitution by 15th October, 2013.

I. BURUNDI AND SOUTH SUDAN

· Representatives of the Republic of Burundi and the Republic of South Sudan be part and parcel of the projects and incorporated into the Technical Committees in relevant thematic areas.

J. FINANCING

· Ministers responsible for finance should meet within one and a half months to come up with mechanisms to raise and schedule financing for all the proposed projects

K. FOLLOW UP AND MONITORING

· The next Summit will be held in Kigali, Rwanda during the third week of October, 2013, to review the progress of implementation of the outcomes of the 2nd Infrastructure Summit.


· His Excellency President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and H.E. President Paul Kagame and the Hon. Ministers representing H.E. Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit and H.E. President Pierre Nkurunziza thanked their host H.E. President Uhuru Kenyatta of the Republic of Kenya for the Warm and Cordial hospitality extended to them and their delegations during their stay.


Done at Mombasa, Kenya, on the 28th Day of August, 2013.


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#292 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 7:25:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Thanks @murchr for the info. Strange not to see Tz in the mix for the 2nd time. Seems like the decision to cut them off has already been made!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
sparkly
#293 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 7:59:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
limanika wrote:
mkeiyd wrote:
limanika wrote:
By the way, who knows what the economic justification is for TZ to borrow and build a new port at Bagamoyo to handle 20million TEU per annum when total current EAC demand is less than 2million TEU and average regional economic growth at 5%? At the same time TZ’s electricity and road network in tatters. Isn’t gradual expansion of existing ports that slightly outpaces economic growth more reasonable?


Cheap credit from the Chinese and the need to stamp some form of authority on their Kenyan neighbors.
Something grandeur, to have "the biggest @$$#& in East and Central Africa".

For Kenya, that Bagamoyo port will make our Mombasa expand and get more efficient to stem the on coming tide [whether real or just a phantom}.
All the best to them,we will all learn something from this Bagamoyo.

If that is the case then that is no economic justification. This has all the hallmarks to turn into white elephant. But then, all the best from me as well.


President Kikwete hails from that area. That is his legacy for "his people".
Life is short. Live passionately.
murchr
#294 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 8:00:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
Thanks @murchr for the info. Strange not to see Tz in the mix for the 2nd time. Seems like the decision to cut them off has already been made!


Tanzania has never been serious as a member of EAC, rather they have focused their energies to SADC.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Lolest!
#295 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 9:05:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
Thanks @murchr for the info. Strange not to see Tz in the mix for the 2nd time. Seems like the decision to cut them off has already been made!


Tanzania has never been serious as a member of EAC, rather they have focused their energies to SADC.

yes, but they do acknowledge that EAC is a more effective block
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
Cde Monomotapa
#296 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 10:23:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I can confirm that landlocked Zim has the option of both TZ & SA ports thus, TZ is probably in order to chase the biz down south. Actually, more a competitor to Mzansi at face value though here (EAC) we also have to keep in mind that we share lake Victoria too (inland water-way)
Cde Monomotapa
#297 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 10:29:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I can confirm that landlocked Zim has the option of both TZ & SA ports thus, TZ is probably in order to chase the biz down south. Actually, more a competitor to Mzansi at face value though here (EAC) we also have to keep in mind that we share lake Victoria too (inland water-way)

Also, Zim sitting almost in the middle of SADC can be leveraged as a road, rail & air hub for the region.
dunkang
#298 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 10:30:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Quote:
K. FOLLOW UP AND MONITORING

The next Summit will be held in Kigali, Rwanda during the third week of October, 2013, to review the progress of implementation of the outcomes of the 2nd Infrastructure Summit.


I like this follow up meetings. It just displays the seriousness of the projects to the friendly neighbours!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

mwekez@ji
#299 Posted : Thursday, August 29, 2013 11:50:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
GGK wrote:


Sounds like Kenya is borrowing to pay pay other lenders. Unless for debt consolidation where the new loan is at far much better terms... we need to go slow.


$0.6B will indeed go to debt consolidation. Over and above that is for infrastructure smile
mwekez@ji
#300 Posted : Friday, August 30, 2013 8:48:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
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