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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mkeiyd wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Btw watch out for oil. If the price spikes above $120/bbl it'll be time to get defensive. NSE is still bullish, but that oil price spike will crater the markets globally. Oil price has spiked $8 in 3 days and currently trading at $117 surpassing the 2013 high.
Those holding KQ, KK, Total and industrials hold on tight if this Syria situation falls out, which is likely. Will be safe if they hedged at 90s I thought after KK's hedging, wazualand became anti-hedging? Only @murchr supporting this. Anybody else?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mpesa bank, simba and BAT selling bring down the index... Waiting for disappointing H1 news from simba... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Whole market looking bad ... Advance/Decline Ratio; 10/23
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Seems frontier markets arent being spared either. Short term relief though on slight decrease in oil to $115 from $117 highs and Dow,Nasdaq and S&P futures shockingly turning green  NB Waiting for the mpesa rebound after bottoming out as we approach div closure Sept 12th. A 10% gain in 2 weeks beckons  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Most indices worldwide are tanking. Guys are watching the Syria Factor. Washington+London+Paris vs Moscow+Damascus war of words may be cause! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.β β Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,095 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Btw watch out for oil. If the price spikes above $120/bbl it'll be time to get defensive. NSE is still bullish, but that oil price spike will crater the markets globally. Oil price has spiked $8 in 3 days and currently trading at $117 surpassing the 2013 high.
Those holding KQ, KK, Total and industrials hold on tight if this Syria situation falls out, which is likely. Will be safe if they hedged at 90s No need for KK and TK to hedge. ERC pricing will take care of the oil price spike and currency fluctuations. Not really. What I expect is KK & TK will not be aggressive i.e. not bid for cargoes & let someone else bring them in. It is prudent for KK & TK to sell less fuel [loss of market share] if it is not profitable. If KK & TK [assume Shell will follow suit] stop importing or reduce volumes then expect industry-wide stock-outs. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mwekez@ji wrote:mkeiyd wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Btw watch out for oil. If the price spikes above $120/bbl it'll be time to get defensive. NSE is still bullish, but that oil price spike will crater the markets globally. Oil price has spiked $8 in 3 days and currently trading at $117 surpassing the 2013 high.
Those holding KQ, KK, Total and industrials hold on tight if this Syria situation falls out, which is likely. Will be safe if they hedged at 90s I thought after KK's hedging, wazualand became anti-hedging? Only @murchr supporting this. Anybody else? @Mweke...the only "master hedger" if there's anything like that in Kenya has been the guy at KQ infact the little profits they reported in the yy prior to the huge loss were made from this. Crude was less than $95 in June now $110, in 2 months. If KQ locked in a price of $95 for a years supply then they are good. As for KK and the rest, i wonder how ERC will fill in this gap. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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NSE wrote:The Bourse opened the week on a high note, with a total of 39M shares valued at Kes.988M transacted against Kes.1.65bn on 19M shares posted last Friday.
The NSE 20 Share Index shed 15.02 points to stand at 4806.48.
All Share Index (NASI) was down 0.11 points to stand at 124.36. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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murchr wrote:NSE wrote:The Bourse opened the week on a high note, with a total of 39M shares valued at Kes.988M transacted against Kes.1.65bn on 19M shares posted last Friday.
The NSE 20 Share Index shed 15.02 points to stand at 4806.48.
All Share Index (NASI) was down 0.11 points to stand at 124.36. History channel But thanks though for the Monday stats. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:murchr wrote:NSE wrote:The Bourse opened the week on a high note, with a total of 39M shares valued at Kes.988M transacted against Kes.1.65bn on 19M shares posted last Friday.
The NSE 20 Share Index shed 15.02 points to stand at 4806.48.
All Share Index (NASI) was down 0.11 points to stand at 124.36. History channel But thanks though for the Monday stats. Ha ha .... dint notice...SMH, thanks for pointing it out "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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I'm impressed international factors affect nse more than local factors, means it has a global reach ala foreign investors The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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murchr wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mkeiyd wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Btw watch out for oil. If the price spikes above $120/bbl it'll be time to get defensive. NSE is still bullish, but that oil price spike will crater the markets globally. Oil price has spiked $8 in 3 days and currently trading at $117 surpassing the 2013 high.
Those holding KQ, KK, Total and industrials hold on tight if this Syria situation falls out, which is likely. Will be safe if they hedged at 90s I thought after KK's hedging, wazualand became anti-hedging? Only @murchr supporting this. Anybody else? @Mweke...the only "master hedger" if there's anything like that in Kenya has been the guy at KQ infact the little profits they reported in the yy prior to the huge loss were made from this. Crude was less than $95 in June now $110, in 2 months. If KQ locked in a price of $95 for a years supply then they are good. As for KK and the rest, i wonder how ERC will fill in this gap. By pushing the burden to consumers via the price regulation
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:I'm impressed international factors affect nse more than local factors, means it has a global reach ala foreign investors It is no secret foreigners have pumped in a lot of cash since Nov 2011. This effect is expected plus NSE now has two international indices i.e. MSCI KE index and FTSE NSE 15 & 25 indices. And FTSE also started a KE bond index. So, if the foreign platform gets spooked by global liquidity issues, the effect will be felt at NSE too. Btw if another GFC was to pop up, the selloff effect on NSE would be larger than 2008 - 2009.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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Going by the volumes,the market is still very alive. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:I'm impressed international factors affect nse more than local factors, means it has a global reach ala foreign investors It is no secret foreigners have pumped in a lot of cash since Nov 2011. This effect is expected plus NSE now has two international indices i.e. MSCI KE index and FTSE NSE 15 & 25 indices. And FTSE also started a KE bond index. So, if the foreign platform gets spooked by global liquidity issues, the effect will be felt at NSE too. Btw if another GFC was to pop up, the selloff effect on NSE would be larger than 2008 - 2009. ill give international news more attention. and eye popping comment. worse than GFC. that would be terrible but good The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Many thanks @Hisah for the charts. That mpesa vol today was eye catching. 113M, no joke. I see the 7.65 closing price today is ahead of vol as per the chart. Will surely touch 8 tomorrow going by the surprisingly positive gains jana and today particularly in the US markets. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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@Mwekezaji Kindly inform on todays % foreign buy and sale on Safaricom. Many thanks!
βThe pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.β
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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Metasploit wrote:@Mwekezaji
Kindly inform on todays % foreign buy and sale on Safaricom.
Many thanks! It was a net 3% sell off by foreigners on this high volume day.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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NSE wrote:Buoyed by the sale of Safaricom shares, turnover soared to Kes.1.49bn on a hefty tally of 129M shares, up from Kes.584M on 38M shares posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index was down 34.10 points to stand at 4708.05.
All Share Index (NASI) shed 0.85 points to stand at 120.39. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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