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Emergence of East African Tigers
limanika
#1 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 6:57:31 PM
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Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
http://www.skyscrapercit...forumdisplay.php?f=2335
Peruse through the discussions on the mega projects in the various EA countries and tell us which EA country you think will be more developed 10-20 years down the line? To me it seems Ethiopia is leading the pack, Kenya a distant second
limanika
#2 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 1:02:48 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
limanika wrote:
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2335
Peruse through the discussions on the mega projects in the various EA countries and tell us which EA country you think will be more developed 10-20 years down the line? To me it seems Ethiopia is leading the pack, Kenya a distant second

I didn't know its that difficult...simply put, Ethiopia's electric trains and cheap electricity will make it attractive for manufacturing firms...while Kenya will continue to attract firms offering services due to liberalised economy and better macroeconomic environment. Real GDP will grow faster in Ethiopia though under the circumstances...am I wrong?
mkeiyd
#3 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 9:28:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
limanika wrote:
limanika wrote:
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2335
Peruse through the discussions on the mega projects in the various EA countries and tell us which EA country you think will be more developed 10-20 years down the line? To me it seems Ethiopia is leading the pack, Kenya a distant second

I didn't know its that difficult...simply put, Ethiopia's electric trains and cheap electricity will make it attractive for manufacturing firms...while Kenya will continue to attract firms offering services due to liberalised economy and better macroeconomic environment. Real GDP will grow faster in Ethiopia though under the circumstances...am I wrong?


They are building their electric line, at some point in the future, we might as well. The US doesn't have extensive eletric rail network, but they remain efficient.

With coal, we can also generate cheap power.

Thing is, it's too early to throw in the towel. Ethiopia has some political upheavals to surmount. At the moment, things are looking up for them.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#4 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 10:06:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
limanika wrote:
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2335
Peruse through the discussions on the mega projects in the various EA countries and tell us which EA country you think will be more developed 10-20 years down the line? To me it seems Ethiopia is leading the pack, Kenya a distant second

It would be very meaningful if you actually visited Ethiopia and see their current status. Kenyans have no clue just how far ahead of the curve they are, Addis is a supersized Mlolongo,the Ethiopian human capital capacity is behind TZ. They do have some upsides, e.g their home developed leather industry has some quality stuff,

I will say it here, the Kenyan GDP is understated by upto 100%, many Kenyans hide their wealth and real incomes etc to avoid tax.

"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
guru267
#5 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 10:35:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Kenya will be unbwogable in East Africa both in real Gdp and per capita income...

The Ethiopians will be somewhere in 2nd place!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkeiyd
#6 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 10:37:35 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
limanika wrote:
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2335
Peruse through the discussions on the mega projects in the various EA countries and tell us which EA country you think will be more developed 10-20 years down the line? To me it seems Ethiopia is leading the pack, Kenya a distant second

It would be very meaningful if you actually visited Ethiopia and see their current status. Kenyans have no clue just how far ahead of the curve they are, Addis is a supersized Mlolongo,the Ethiopian human capital capacity is behind TZ. They do have some upsides, e.g their home developed leather industry has some quality stuff,

I will say it here, the Kenyan GDP is understated by upto 100%, many Kenyans hide their wealth and real incomes etc to avoid tax.



In a liberalized econ like ours, with no centralized data gathering system, it's hard for KB of statistics to come up with near-accurate stats. With many common man deals done outside the formal system, i would agree with @Obi, its understated.
limanika
#7 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 11:41:52 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
guru267 wrote:
Kenya will be unbwogable in East Africa both in real Gdp and per capita income...

The Ethiopians will be somewhere in 2nd place!

GDP is a measure of value of goods exported from a country in a given year, not a measure of wealth. So it is possible for a seemingly ‘’poorer’’ country like Sudan and Ethiopia to have higher GDP than Kenya. Apparently this is actually the case! And GDP is the internationally accepted standard of measuring and comparing wealth creation.
Kenya of today and yesteryears may be having better developed cities and infrastructure than Ethiopia but am looking at the future 10-20 years. Ethiopia is coming up with policies that make its economy more competitive than Kenya i.e.
• Their electricity is subsidised by government so rates are among the cheapest anywhere in the world
• All land in Ethiopia is owned by the state. They are able to lease land to investors at minimal cost
• Their population is twice that of Kenya so the market is larger than Kenya.
On the other hand, cost of electricity and land in Kenya is among the highest anywhere in the world.
Why is it so difficult to see that Ethiopia is doing something right? Kenya may be a better democracy than Ethiopia, but again, Kenya is also better democracy than China. Irrespective of this, US manufacturing companies have opened satellite plants in China not Kenya. Investors think in terms of profits and not sentimental reasons, that’s why someone will only invest where they can reap maximum profits.
I am actually happy for Ethiopian people that they are able to come up with policies that will assure the development of their people. If they continue with these policies, 20 years down the line we will be comparing Kenya and Ethiopia of then and yesteryears and wondering where the rain started beating us.
guru267
#8 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 12:28:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Since when did government subsidies ever help any situation?? All they do is mask problems and are not sustainable!

Ethiopia will have a lower absolute GDP and Per capita income than Kenya in the next 20 years...

I also do expect Kenya to start the path towards double digit growth!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
limanika
#9 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 12:45:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
guru267 wrote:
Since when did government subsidies ever help any situation?? All they do is mask problems and are not sustainable!

Ethiopia will have a lower absolute GDP and Per capita income than Kenya in the next 20 years...

I also do expect Kenya to start the path towards double digit growth!

Which problems do subsidies mask? The Ethiopian government foots most of the cost for power production and distribution so the end – user pays almost nothing. This leads to low cost of production and manufacturers are able to produce more goods, sell more goods, earn the country more in tax and this mitigates the cost of having paid for the subsidy in the first place. It is a case of playing mind games, and investor is only looking at the profit.
Please give better reason for your claim.
Pesa Nane
#10 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 12:49:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
limanika wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Kenya will be unbwogable in East Africa both in real Gdp and per capita income...

The Ethiopians will be somewhere in 2nd place!

GDP is a measure of value of goods exported from a country in a given year, not a measure of wealth. So it is possible for a seemingly ‘’poorer’’ country like Sudan and Ethiopia to have higher GDP than Kenya. Apparently this is actually the case! And GDP is the internationally accepted standard of measuring and comparing wealth creation.
Kenya of today and yesteryears may be having better developed cities and infrastructure than Ethiopia but am looking at the future 10-20 years. Ethiopia is coming up with policies that make its economy more competitive than Kenya i.e.
• Their electricity is subsidised by government so rates are among the cheapest anywhere in the world
• All land in Ethiopia is owned by the state. They are able to lease land to investors at minimal cost
• Their population is twice that of Kenya so the market is larger than Kenya.
On the other hand, cost of electricity and land in Kenya is among the highest anywhere in the world.
Why is it so difficult to see that Ethiopia is doing something right? Kenya may be a better democracy than Ethiopia, but again, Kenya is also better democracy than China. Irrespective of this, US manufacturing companies have opened satellite plants in China not Kenya. Investors think in terms of profits and not sentimental reasons, that’s why someone will only invest where they can reap maximum profits.
I am actually happy for Ethiopian people that they are able to come up with policies that will assure the development of their people. If they continue with these policies, 20 years down the line we will be comparing Kenya and Ethiopia of then and yesteryears and wondering where the rain started beating us.

No way Ethiopia's closed economy will compete with the capitalistic / liberalized Kenya's economy.
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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