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KenolKobil & Total-Kenya Valuation and Recommendation
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@Kausha, still waiting for KK 1H13 results. late july is now gone and early august is going. whatz up delayed results are rarely good Yep. Oversalted soup... As an aside, simba has delayed its H1 results...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@Kausha, still waiting for KK 1H13 results. late july is now gone and early august is going. whatz up delayed results are rarely good Yep. Oversalted soup... As an aside, simba has delayed its H1 results... Pressure on KK share price is setting in ... on KCB its a different story
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@Kausha, still waiting for KK 1H13 results. late july is now gone and early august is going. whatz up delayed results are rarely good Yep. Oversalted soup... As an aside, simba has delayed its H1 results... Pressure on KK share price is setting in ... on KCB its a different story Downward pressure continua BIDS 108,000 Quantity Price Splits Time 500 8.40 1 10:43:55 12,500 8.30 2 10:43:55 400 8.25 1 10:43:55 94,600 8.00 10 10:43:55 - - - - ASKS 721,200 Quantity Price Splits Time 98,000 8.50 8 10:43:55 30,000 8.55 4 10:43:55 30,000 8.60 4 10:43:55 30,000 8.65 4 10:43:55 42,700 8.70 7 10:43:55 TRADES Quantity Price Time 280,000 8.40 10:13:13 280,000 8.40 10:13:01 1,800 8.50 09:55:27 200 8.50 09:55:27 500 8.50 09:38:14
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Bumped into the whole KK board at Trattoria....I wonder what they were discussing...if its results...then they should be out on Monday or next week...the former CEO looked happy.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/28/2013 Posts: 61 Location: Nairobi s
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just have to wait and see Never be afraid to try something new.Remeber,amateurs built the ark Professionals built titanic.-Anonymous
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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we'll see. got a lot riding on this one, but I'm not confident of a good H1 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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the deal wrote:Bumped into the whole KK board at Trattoria....I wonder what they were discussing...if its results...then they should be out on Monday or next week...the former CEO looked happy. ... so this is the new exchange bar ... ... on a light note
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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the deal wrote:Bumped into the whole KK board at Trattoria....I wonder what they were discussing...if its results...then they should be out on Monday or next week...the former CEO looked happy. ... was the current CEO looking happy? ... Much must be cooking ... we expected the results in late July/early August cc@Kausha
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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1H results will be poor. At best a break-even affair after finance costs but more likely to be a loss. KK has indicated as much PLUS the new CEO probably wants to clean house. The 'profit' [after tax] is expected to be in the period 2H 2013 though the full year will be break-even at best. It's an eye towards 2014 that counts! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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mwekez@ji wrote:the deal wrote:Bumped into the whole KK board at Trattoria....I wonder what they were discussing...if its results...then they should be out on Monday or next week...the former CEO looked happy. ... so this is the new exchange bar ... ... on a light note everybody looked happy...most likely KK is out of the woods judging by the body language..if it was a board meeting...we will know the outcome soon...I dont have the numbers...I was just there doing my own things....
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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VituVingiSana wrote:1H results will be poor. At best a break-even affair after finance costs but more likely to be a loss. KK has indicated as much PLUS the new CEO probably wants to clean house. The 'profit' [after tax] is expected to be in the period 2H 2013 though the full year will be break-even at best.
It's an eye towards 2014 that counts! @VVS really, poor results, really...! Admittedly the results were late compared to expectations but a week or two later than usual can be excused seeing even the Lion is struggling to report on time. Good thing though the results were not a pot of salted soup as somebody was speculating. Thing is KK will have a stellar set of results for 2013. They have 1.3 to write back and about USD 15m assets are sold out. you also notice the trimmed 600m from opex in a quarter which had retrenchments as well. The KPRL reparation has crystallized but payability will be tricky.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/9/2009 Posts: 85
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Kausha wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:1H results will be poor. At best a break-even affair after finance costs but more likely to be a loss. KK has indicated as much PLUS the new CEO probably wants to clean house. The 'profit' [after tax] is expected to be in the period 2H 2013 though the full year will be break-even at best.
It's an eye towards 2014 that counts! @VVS really, poor results, really...! Admittedly the results were late compared to expectations but a week or two later than usual can be excused seeing even the Lion is struggling to report on time. Good thing though the results were not a pot of salted soup as somebody was speculating. Thing is KK will have a stellar set of results for 2013. They have 1.3 to write back and about USD 15m assets are sold out. you also notice the trimmed 600m from opex in a quarter which had retrenchments as well. The KPRL reparation has crystallized but payability will be tricky. KK's management seemed to indicate a poor 1H. That said, great to see them under-promise & over-deliver. 2H 2013 will be profitable but not that great [Operating Income] but... 2014 is where it is at! Lower interest costs will help BUT there were product outages at KK for 7-10 days in August. I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good. The sale of assets will bring in cash. Good coz the debt is high & any reduction is welcome. Though these are one-off gigs. We need biz back to normal including the low-margin but large volumes trading activities. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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VituVingiSana wrote:…I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good.
The problem where I'm concerned is I don't seem to fuel at KenolKobil with ease. I can remeber going to OilLibya frequently, Shell once in a while, and Total a few times. How come I don't just encounter these KK guys more?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote: ... #KK We need biz back to normal including the low-margin but large volumes trading activities.
Agreed Chief VVS
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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HY2013 data ...................... KenolKobil.....Total(K) Sales................ 65.27B ........... 65.789B Gross Prof....... 2.342B .......... 2.863B Operat cost ... (1.175B)..... (2.104B) Finance cost... (801.5M) ..... (154.6M) Forex loss ...... (158.5M)...... (67.3M) P.B.T ................. 199.1M ........ 757.1M PAT ................... 147.4M ........ 461.3M Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Kenol's PAT belongs to the Common Equity Shareholders. Total Kenya Common Equity Shareholders have to share the PAT with the Preference Shares. The Total Common Equity Shareholders are lucky that Outre-Mer is lending Total Kenya 'cheap' money but it also means there is a 'cash call' waiting if the Preference Shares have to be repaid/redeemed. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/27/2010 Posts: 26 Location: NBI
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muganda wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:…I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good.
The problem where I'm concerned is I don't seem to fuel at KenolKobil with ease. I can remeber going to OilLibya frequently, Shell once in a while, and Total a few times. How come I don't just encounter these KK guys more? By the way shell service stations have the best customer service of em'all.. Clean uniforms, helpful staff... Total is another story.. I avoid them coz they are perenially understaffed so you have to wait while one guy goes round filling vehicles at the various pumps. WTF
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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My patience has finally been rewarded. Resumed my re-entry into KK today and managed a nice chunk of shares at 8.20 to 8.30. I am ready to hang in here for a while, as I suspect that it is still possible for the counter to slip below Kshs 8, if we get another scare in the market. Still, I believe most of the bad news is now fully factored in the price.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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