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KenolKobil & Total-Kenya Valuation and Recommendation
hisah
#21 Posted : Wednesday, August 07, 2013 5:13:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Kausha, still waiting for KK 1H13 results. late july is now gone and early august is going. whatz up


delayed results are rarely good

Yep. Oversalted soup... As an aside, simba has delayed its H1 results...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#22 Posted : Thursday, August 08, 2013 1:31:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Kausha, still waiting for KK 1H13 results. late july is now gone and early august is going. whatz up


delayed results are rarely good

Yep. Oversalted soup... As an aside, simba has delayed its H1 results...


Pressure on KK share price is setting in ... on KCB its a different story
mwekez@ji
#23 Posted : Tuesday, August 13, 2013 10:56:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Kausha, still waiting for KK 1H13 results. late july is now gone and early august is going. whatz up


delayed results are rarely good

Yep. Oversalted soup... As an aside, simba has delayed its H1 results...


Pressure on KK share price is setting in ... on KCB its a different story


Downward pressure continua

BIDS 108,000
Quantity Price Splits Time
500 8.40 1 10:43:55
12,500 8.30 2 10:43:55
400 8.25 1 10:43:55
94,600 8.00 10 10:43:55
- - - -
ASKS 721,200
Quantity Price Splits Time
98,000 8.50 8 10:43:55
30,000 8.55 4 10:43:55
30,000 8.60 4 10:43:55
30,000 8.65 4 10:43:55
42,700 8.70 7 10:43:55
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
280,000 8.40 10:13:13
280,000 8.40 10:13:01

1,800 8.50 09:55:27
200 8.50 09:55:27
500 8.50 09:38:14
the deal
#24 Posted : Friday, August 16, 2013 10:45:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Bumped into the whole KK board at Trattoria....I wonder what they were discussing...if its results...then they should be out on Monday or next week...the former CEO looked happy.
simmons
#25 Posted : Saturday, August 17, 2013 12:18:13 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/28/2013
Posts: 61
Location: Nairobi s
just have to wait and see
Never be afraid to try something new.Remeber,amateurs built the ark Professionals built titanic.-Anonymous
Aguytrying
#26 Posted : Saturday, August 17, 2013 8:28:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
we'll see. got a lot riding on this one, but I'm not confident of a good H1
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwekez@ji
#27 Posted : Saturday, August 17, 2013 10:50:32 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
Bumped into the whole KK board at Trattoria....I wonder what they were discussing...if its results...then they should be out on Monday or next week...the former CEO looked happy.


... so this is the new exchange bar ... Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly ... on a light note
mwekez@ji
#28 Posted : Saturday, August 17, 2013 10:54:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
Bumped into the whole KK board at Trattoria....I wonder what they were discussing...if its results...then they should be out on Monday or next week...the former CEO looked happy.


... was the current CEO looking happy? ... Much must be cooking ... we expected the results in late July/early August cc@Kausha
VituVingiSana
#29 Posted : Saturday, August 17, 2013 11:05:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
1H results will be poor. At best a break-even affair after finance costs but more likely to be a loss. KK has indicated as much PLUS the new CEO probably wants to clean house. The 'profit' [after tax] is expected to be in the period 2H 2013 though the full year will be break-even at best.

It's an eye towards 2014 that counts!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#30 Posted : Saturday, August 17, 2013 11:11:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
Bumped into the whole KK board at Trattoria....I wonder what they were discussing...if its results...then they should be out on Monday or next week...the former CEO looked happy.


... so this is the new exchange bar ... Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly ... on a light note

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly everybody looked happy...most likely KK is out of the woods judging by the body language..if it was a board meeting...we will know the outcome soon...I dont have the numbers...I was just there doing my own things....
Kausha
#31 Posted : Friday, August 23, 2013 1:30:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H results will be poor. At best a break-even affair after finance costs but more likely to be a loss. KK has indicated as much PLUS the new CEO probably wants to clean house. The 'profit' [after tax] is expected to be in the period 2H 2013 though the full year will be break-even at best.

It's an eye towards 2014 that counts!


@VVS really, poor results, really...!

Admittedly the results were late compared to expectations but a week or two later than usual can be excused seeing even the Lion is struggling to report on time. Good thing though the results were not a pot of salted soup as somebody was speculating. Thing is KK will have a stellar set of results for 2013. They have 1.3 to write back and about USD 15m assets are sold out. you also notice the trimmed 600m from opex in a quarter which had retrenchments as well. The KPRL reparation has crystallized but payability will be tricky.
omega
#32 Posted : Tuesday, August 27, 2013 7:02:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/9/2009
Posts: 85
VituVingiSana
#33 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 1:57:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Kausha wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
1H results will be poor. At best a break-even affair after finance costs but more likely to be a loss. KK has indicated as much PLUS the new CEO probably wants to clean house. The 'profit' [after tax] is expected to be in the period 2H 2013 though the full year will be break-even at best.

It's an eye towards 2014 that counts!


@VVS really, poor results, really...!

Admittedly the results were late compared to expectations but a week or two later than usual can be excused seeing even the Lion is struggling to report on time. Good thing though the results were not a pot of salted soup as somebody was speculating. Thing is KK will have a stellar set of results for 2013. They have 1.3 to write back and about USD 15m assets are sold out. you also notice the trimmed 600m from opex in a quarter which had retrenchments as well. The KPRL reparation has crystallized but payability will be tricky.
KK's management seemed to indicate a poor 1H. That said, great to see them under-promise & over-deliver. 2H 2013 will be profitable but not that great [Operating Income] but... 2014 is where it is at! Lower interest costs will help BUT there were product outages at KK for 7-10 days in August. I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good. The sale of assets will bring in cash. Good coz the debt is high & any reduction is welcome. Though these are one-off gigs. We need biz back to normal including the low-margin but large volumes trading activities.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
muganda
#34 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 7:00:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
VituVingiSana wrote:
…I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good.


The problem where I'm concerned is I don't seem to fuel at KenolKobil with ease. I can remeber going to OilLibya frequently, Shell once in a while, and Total a few times. How come I don't just encounter these KK guys more?

mwekez@ji
#35 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 11:24:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
... #KK We need biz back to normal including the low-margin but large volumes trading activities.


Agreed Chief VVS
dunkang
#36 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 12:05:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
HY2013 data
...................... KenolKobil.....Total(K)
Sales................ 65.27B ........... 65.789B
Gross Prof....... 2.342B .......... 2.863B
Operat cost ... (1.175B)..... (2.104B)
Finance cost... (801.5M) ..... (154.6M)
Forex loss ...... (158.5M)...... (67.3M)
P.B.T ................. 199.1M ........ 757.1M
PAT ................... 147.4M ........ 461.3M
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

VituVingiSana
#37 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 1:13:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Kenol's PAT belongs to the Common Equity Shareholders. Total Kenya Common Equity Shareholders have to share the PAT with the Preference Shares. The Total Common Equity Shareholders are lucky that Outre-Mer is lending Total Kenya 'cheap' money but it also means there is a 'cash call' waiting if the Preference Shares have to be repaid/redeemed.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kamaug
#38 Posted : Wednesday, August 28, 2013 4:03:22 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/27/2010
Posts: 26
Location: NBI
muganda wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
…I use KK & many stations were dry. Not good.


The problem where I'm concerned is I don't seem to fuel at KenolKobil with ease. I can remeber going to OilLibya frequently, Shell once in a while, and Total a few times. How come I don't just encounter these KK guys more?


By the way shell service stations have the best customer service of em'all..
Clean uniforms, helpful staff... Total is another story.. I avoid them coz they are perenially understaffed so you have to wait while one guy goes round filling vehicles at the various pumps.
WTF
mwanahisa
#39 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 1:26:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
My patience has finally been rewarded. Resumed my re-entry into KK today and managed a nice chunk of shares at 8.20 to 8.30. I am ready to hang in here for a while, as I suspect that it is still possible for the counter to slip below Kshs 8, if we get another scare in the market. Still, I believe most of the bad news is now fully factored in the price.
mkeiyd
#40 Posted : Thursday, September 05, 2013 4:20:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
mwanahisa wrote:
My patience has finally been rewarded. Resumed my re-entry into KK today and managed a nice chunk of shares at 8.20 to 8.30. I am ready to hang in here for a while, as I suspect that it is still possible for the counter to slip below Kshs 8, if we get another scare in the market. Still, I believe most of the bad news is now fully factored in the price.


@mwanahisa. Welcome to the hole, you can't fall hard from here. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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