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Value NSE Stocks next 10 years
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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guru267 wrote:For me... 1. Housing finance (assuming a P/E ratio of 10 and a shs6 Billion PAT in 2023) 2. Kenya re (assuming a P/E ratio of 10 and a PAT of shs12 Billion in 2023) 3. Co op (assuming a P/E ratio of 15 and a PAT of shs45 Billion in 2023) 4. Bamburi (assuming a P/E ratio of 15 and a PAT of shs55 Billion in 2023) If the market P/E ratios at the time are through the roof the better!  I challenge other wazuans to back their 10 bagger picks with numbers! Numbers - We're talking about 10years from now.Thats the domain of trends and themes.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:For me... 1. Housing finance (assuming a P/E ratio of 10 and a shs6 Billion PAT in 2023) 2. Kenya re (assuming a P/E ratio of 10 and a PAT of shs12 Billion in 2023) 3. Co op (assuming a P/E ratio of 15 and a PAT of shs45 Billion in 2023) 4. Bamburi (assuming a P/E ratio of 15 and a PAT of shs55 Billion in 2023) If the market P/E ratios at the time are through the roof the better! I challenge other wazuans to back their 10 bagger picks with numbers! Numbers - We're talking about 10years from now.Thats the domain of trends and themes. All these are just educated assumptions... But anything can happen! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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guru267 wrote:symbols wrote:guru267 wrote:For me... 1. Housing finance (assuming a P/E ratio of 10 and a shs6 Billion PAT in 2023) 2. Kenya re (assuming a P/E ratio of 10 and a PAT of shs12 Billion in 2023) 3. Co op (assuming a P/E ratio of 15 and a PAT of shs45 Billion in 2023) 4. Bamburi (assuming a P/E ratio of 15 and a PAT of shs55 Billion in 2023) If the market P/E ratios at the time are through the roof the better! I challenge other wazuans to back their 10 bagger picks with numbers! Numbers - We're talking about 10years from now.Thats the domain of trends and themes. All these are just educated assumptions... But anything can happen! Can't argue with that.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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Why have I not received my HF dividends after closing books almost 3 months ago? The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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@All Please be informed that attending 1000% gain in value in 10 years is not rocket science. What I mean is that it is not as difficult as you think. MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCE IN NSE. I bought 1,000 shares of KCB in my first debut in July 2004 at 45 bob per share ie 45,000 bob (Ex commissions) KCB declared a loss in FY 2013 so her shares were at the lowest ebb. KCB rose to 180 in 2007 and did a 10 for 1 split. That means my initial 1,000 shares became 10,000 and my cost price became 4.5 bob instead of 45 bob. Now my 10,000 units of KCB is 44.25 bob per share ie approaching 45 bob in 9 years . When this happens ( I think very soon) my 45,000 bob of shares will be worth 450,000 bob the ALMIGHTY 1,000%. This does not include numerious dividends over the years. My dividend per share in 2005 was 50 cents now it is close to 2 bob. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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In general if average growth rate in the value of your stock is 27% a year you can attain 1000% in ten years. Lets us say Mzee buys 1000 units of shares at 1 bob. Lets see the extrapolation at 27% over 10 years Year 1 1000x1.27 = 1270 year 2. 1270x 1.27 =1612.9 year 3. 1612.9x1.27=2048.38 year 4. 2048.38x1.27=2601.45 year 5. 2601.45x1.27= 3303.83 year 6. 3304.83x1.27= 4195.87 year 7. 4195.87x1.27= 5328.76 year 8. 5328.76x1.27= 6767.52 year 9. 6767.52x1.27= 8594.75 year 10. 8594.75x1.27=10915.33 The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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dunkang wrote:Mastermind wrote:dunkang wrote:KPLC
Especially now that they have been told to put their house in order (i.e. be efficient) and there is no viable alternative to KPLC, atleast for the next 20 years!
Do you see how the mombasa port has improved after the sack warnings? The future of KPLC is uncertain especially after Mps voted for that motion which seeks to liberalise power distribution in the country. I will pick KenGen over KPLC in the energy sector. So you think starting a power distribution company is as easy as starting a mobile telco? With the sensitivity of raising electricity bills, do you think any investor would dare start a KPLC alternative? Just forget about competition in power distribution! Its possible if they change the role of Kenya power from transmission and distribution of electricity to providing infrastracture to power distributing companies. Btw the bill is at what stage? If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Mastermind wrote:dunkang wrote:Mastermind wrote:dunkang wrote:KPLC
Especially now that they have been told to put their house in order (i.e. be efficient) and there is no viable alternative to KPLC, atleast for the next 20 years!
Do you see how the mombasa port has improved after the sack warnings? The future of KPLC is uncertain especially after Mps voted for that motion which seeks to liberalise power distribution in the country. I will pick KenGen over KPLC in the energy sector. So you think starting a power distribution company is as easy as starting a mobile telco? With the sensitivity of raising electricity bills, do you think any investor would dare start a KPLC alternative? Just forget about competition in power distribution! Its possible if they change the role of Kenya power from transmission and distribution of electricity to providing infrastracture to power distributing companies. Btw the bill is at what stage? Boss, ever heard of KETRACO Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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dunkang wrote:Mastermind wrote:dunkang wrote:Mastermind wrote:dunkang wrote:KPLC
Especially now that they have been told to put their house in order (i.e. be efficient) and there is no viable alternative to KPLC, atleast for the next 20 years!
Do you see how the mombasa port has improved after the sack warnings? The future of KPLC is uncertain especially after Mps voted for that motion which seeks to liberalise power distribution in the country. I will pick KenGen over KPLC in the energy sector. So you think starting a power distribution company is as easy as starting a mobile telco? With the sensitivity of raising electricity bills, do you think any investor would dare start a KPLC alternative? Just forget about competition in power distribution! Its possible if they change the role of Kenya power from transmission and distribution of electricity to providing infrastracture to power distributing companies. Btw the bill is at what stage? Boss, ever heard of KETRACO Ofcourse... NOTE: Ketraco is 100% owned by Gok. If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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young wrote:@All
Please be informed that attending 1000%
gain in value in 10 years is not rocket science. What I mean is that it is
not as difficult as you think.
MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCE IN NSE.
I bought 1,000 shares of KCB in my first debut in
July 2004 at 45 bob per share ie 45,000 bob (Ex commissions)
KCB declared a loss in FY 2013 so her shares were
at the lowest ebb.
KCB rose to 180 in 2007 and did a 10 for 1 split.
That means my initial 1,000 shares became 10,000
and my cost price became 4.5 bob instead of 45 bob.
Now my 10,000 units of KCB is 44.25 bob per share ie approaching
45 bob in 9 years . When this happens ( I think very soon)
my 45,000 bob of shares will be worth 450,000 bob
the ALMIGHTY 1,000%. This does not include numerious
dividends over the years. My dividend per share in 2005 was 50 cents
now it is close to 2 bob.
U la la KCB has printed 45.00 bob !!!My first investment in KCB in 2004 has returned 10 times (1000%) in 9 years 2004 - 2013 The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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young wrote:young wrote:@All
Please be informed that attending 1000%
gain in value in 10 years is not rocket science. What I mean is that it is
not as difficult as you think.
MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCE IN NSE.
I bought 1,000 shares of KCB in my first debut in
July 2004 at 45 bob per share ie 45,000 bob (Ex commissions)
KCB declared a loss in FY 2013 so her shares were
at the lowest ebb.
KCB rose to 180 in 2007 and did a 10 for 1 split.
That means my initial 1,000 shares became 10,000
and my cost price became 4.5 bob instead of 45 bob.
Now my 10,000 units of KCB is 44.25 bob per share ie approaching
45 bob in 9 years . When this happens ( I think very soon)
my 45,000 bob of shares will be worth 450,000 bob
the ALMIGHTY 1,000%. This does not include numerious
dividends over the years. My dividend per share in 2005 was 50 cents
now it is close to 2 bob.
U la la KCB has printed 45.00 bob !!!My first investment in KCB in 2004 has returned 10 times (1000%) in 9 years 2004 - 2013 @young,well done.If you buy into a good business at the right price the rewards are immense.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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cnn wrote:young wrote:young wrote:@All
Please be informed that attending 1000%
gain in value in 10 years is not rocket science. What I mean is that it is
not as difficult as you think.
MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCE IN NSE.
I bought 1,000 shares of KCB in my first debut in
July 2004 at 45 bob per share ie 45,000 bob (Ex commissions)
KCB declared a loss in FY 2013 so her shares were
at the lowest ebb.
KCB rose to 180 in 2007 and did a 10 for 1 split.
That means my initial 1,000 shares became 10,000
and my cost price became 4.5 bob instead of 45 bob.
Now my 10,000 units of KCB is 44.25 bob per share ie approaching
45 bob in 9 years . When this happens ( I think very soon)
my 45,000 bob of shares will be worth 450,000 bob
the ALMIGHTY 1,000%. This does not include numerious
dividends over the years. My dividend per share in 2005 was 50 cents
now it is close to 2 bob.
U la la KCB has printed 45.00 bob !!!My first investment in KCB in 2004 has returned 10 times (1000%) in 9 years 2004 - 2013 @young,well done.If you buy into a good business at the right price the rewards are immense. congrats @young. You have truly held this for long and it has paid well. do you now intend to sell them?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Rea Vipingo, Centum, Housing Finance, NIC, DTB, NMG and all Insurance companies. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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@mwekez@ji I have already sold my 10,000 units of KCB today as I cannot ask for more as I do not think KCB will repeat this feat in the next 10 years. I split them to position 40/30/30% for HFC, Panafric and Bamburi. Mid tier banks are good, but my problem is that while growing in value they return miserly dividends. Dividends are very important to me so that while waiting like 2008 - 2010, I still receive reasonable dividends. Meanwhile be aware still retain some units of KCB I bought at later date like the rights I bought at 18 etc. Generally it is good to re-appraise your stocks and decide whether to continue or change for other opportunities as they beckon. I have not denied the fact that I am unrepentant long termer in stocks. This is because I am a young old man of 51 years I cannot afford to take big risk which might result in big gain or big loss. I stay with blue chips. I am more than happy with good dividends with moderate growth (20% upwards). Recall my illustration that if your stock gow by average of 27% per annum it will surely multiply 10 times in 10 years. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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young wrote:In general if average growth rate in the value of your
stock is 27% a year you can attain 1000%
in ten years.
Lets us say Mzee buys 1000 units of shares
at 1 bob. Lets see the extrapolation at 27% over 10 years
Year 1 1000x1.27 = 1270
year 2. 1270x 1.27 =1612.9
year 3. 1612.9x1.27=2048.38
year 4. 2048.38x1.27=2601.45
year 5. 2601.45x1.27= 3303.83
year 6. 3304.83x1.27= 4195.87
year 7. 4195.87x1.27= 5328.76
year 8. 5328.76x1.27= 6767.52
year 9. 6767.52x1.27= 8594.75
year 10. 8594.75x1.27=10915.33
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/13/2011 Posts: 284 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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@young, Muchas gracias. This thread has brought a fresh perspective on long term investing. Very good thread.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Gadaffi wrote:NBK!!! I believe When should we expect them to start doing true banking and not just lending to GOK?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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@young, thanks for the advice. For me, ARM despite mean dividend policy has been wonderful in capital gains (average buy 29 bob). After the split the gains has been enormous. I need to bail out now to where i dont know..... if @51 you are still you, then i am a baby. Serious encouragement. Thieves
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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@King G said,
"After the split the gains has been enormous "Good stocks always grow faster after the split. They first grow in value and then split. In fact if stock do not split it may be difficult to grow in multiples. Stock splits rarely happens, averagely once in 10 years. This will happen in the new few years with EABL, NMG, JUB, SCB, SCAN, BAMBURI, PANAFRIC. I have positioned in all of them except SCAN because of her misely dividend policy. You will notice that foreign investors position on these stocks while locals consider them as bein expensive i(n face value). The party in ARM is not yet over I see it nearing 100 next year, but I do not like her dividend policy. You can equally wait a bit longer if you prefer. This is purely a long term perspective. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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