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Co-op bank@20
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kagz
#1 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 11:03:00 AM
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Joined: 1/5/2007
Posts: 8
From reliable sources

snk
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mukiha
#2 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 11:24:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Here we go again.....

Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow)
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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across
#3 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 11:29:00 AM
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Ugandan shillings?
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mwanahisa
#4 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 11:33:00 AM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Mukiha and Across - don't be so hard on our dreamer friend. He just forgot to indicate that he has a 3 year time frame. I believe it will get there by then 'ceteris paribus'. And Kagz,by now you should know the very mention of 'reliable sources' sends many of us scampering for the hills!

Opportunity calls but few respond.
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jerry
#5 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 11:33:00 AM
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Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Timeframe? Bot at 7.20 and sold at 10.40. There could be other greener pastures.

Hotels will always serve the fruits/vegs of the season. In stocks,ur duty as a trader is to identify the HOTshare of the season.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Seles83
#6 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 12:02:00 PM
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Joined: 11/9/2007
Posts: 288
Location: OZ
It is only company with strong growth prospects for this financial year...it will reach that point eventually

Failure inspires winners...winners are made not born
More monies, more problems...
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karuss
#7 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 1:49:00 PM
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Joined: 7/6/2009
Posts: 40
With the banks ambitious expansion program and products revision,i think it is okay to keep hoping..

WIN WIN SITUATION
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luxel
#8 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 2:35:00 PM
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Joined: 7/17/2008
Posts: 152
This will be achieved in a year. Around feb.-mar 2010 when they announce the full year result with profits above kshs.4.5B,coupled with the fact that the stock market will have done a lot of recovery with the index around 4,500 points.
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Mbuga Man
#9 Posted : Tuesday, July 07, 2009 5:26:00 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2008
Posts: 42
Kibaki would say....'Na hi ndio inaitwa kulala na sio kulala tu,ni kulalaaaa.... na tena usingizi. Nani alisema reliable ni mtuuu.. ni mtu pengine ama ni pumbavu . Tangu lini wewe uliona mimi na co-operative.. labda ungesema Family bank au pengine equity. Ukisema equity na 100/= tutakuwa tunaongea.'

'A newspaper has three things to do. One is to amuse,another is to entertain and the rest is to mislead.' Ernest Bevin
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mwanahisa
#10 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 7:41:22 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
mwanahisa wrote:
Mukiha and Across - don't be so hard on our dreamer friend. He just forgot to indicate that he has a 3 year time frame. I believe it will get there by then 'ceteris paribus'. And Kagz,by now you should know the very mention of 'reliable sources' sends many of us scampering for the hills!

Opportunity calls but few respond.


I occasionally go through Wazua (SK) archives. I frequently get surprised by the insights in some of the posts therein. See this one above by Kagz which had predicted a price of Kshs 20 for Co-op Bank mid last year.

Then, only a small minority believed that Co-op would hit Kshs 20 before the next election (2012). See my expectation above. Yesterday, the damn thing hit 19.50. So 20 is now just a matter of days, about 21 months before my expectation. WOW!
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guru267
#11 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 7:46:51 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
luxel wrote:
This will be achieved in a year. Around feb.-mar 2010when they announce the full year result with profits above kshs.4.5B,coupled with the fact that the stock market will have done a lot of recovery with the index around 4,500 points.


man guys are real gurus... i think at this time the market was still at 2,980 points
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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hisah
#12 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 8:27:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
One JMbaru during the Dyer Coop IPO sale stated "buy now. It'll be 20 in 2yrs time"... Mboy talk smile

And indeed the market forgot very fast where it had come from as Wanguyu stated "by Feb or Mar 2009" - Mboy talk smile

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oNKVHnKi9M
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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e_kijana
#13 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:39:38 PM
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Joined: 1/17/2009
Posts: 55
The time will come within a year when Co-op will be at the same price as Equity bank...

I have a feeling we will have a more interactive debate now that I have compared the two banks with die hard EB supporters coming through
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mjuaji wa stocks
#14 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 10:03:37 AM
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Joined: 1/16/2010
Posts: 672
Location: nairobi
I am buying co-op bank @19/- ….to exit @30/- ….targeting march 2011.


I am buying equity @ 26….to exit @ 41…….targeting march 2011


The more they come down…the better for me…
God gave me the power to make wealth ... Blessed the work of my hands & enabled be A SELF MADE BILLIONAIRE ...... TO GOD THE FATHER OF MY LORD JESUS CHRIST; BE THE GLORY NOW & FOREVER MORE!
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mlennyma
#15 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 10:08:22 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
I hope it works for you,the more interest rates drop the faster your dream matures.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mwanahisa
#16 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 11:34:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
e_kijana wrote:
The time will come within a year when Co-op will be at the same price as Equity bank...

I have a feeling we will have a more interactive debate now that I have compared the two banks with die hard EB supporters coming through


Kindly support your assertion with some well reasoned arguments if you want us to take you seriously.
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mlennyma
#17 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 11:47:52 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
Personally i think the share ownership structure of co-op bank gives it more advantage... having few speculative investors makes it posible to even overtake equity.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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guru267
#18 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 1:17:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mjuaji wa stocks wrote:
I am buying co-op bank @19/- ….to exit @30/- ….targeting march 2011.


I am buying equity @ 26….to exit @ 41…….targeting march 2011


The more they come down…the better for me…

Equity at 41?? Wa!!! This is starting to look like 2007 all over again where stock prices were crazy...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwanahisa
#19 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 1:35:26 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I am projecting an (optimistic) EPS of 1.34 for Co-op Bank and at a very generous trailing PE of 20 in March 2011, that would take its price to 26.80. I would be surprised if it went beyond a PE of 17 by March 2011, so I am placing a limit on my expectations to Kshs 22.75.

As for Equity, my expected EPS (projection, based on H1 2010 performance) is Kshs 1.63. Again a trailing PE of 20 would take its price to Kshs 32.60 by March 2011. I however expect Equity's growth to accelerate in the 3rd Quarter (2nd Qtr EPS was 48 cents against 34 cents in Q1).Hence EPS could actually come in higher at about Kshs 1.8. If it achieves this and trades at a more "realistic" PE of 17, then we will be looking at a price of 30.50.

I believe the above scenarios are rather optimistic and are based on rather simplistic assumptions on EPS and PE ratios. But I would happy if they came to pass.
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sheep
#20 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 2:05:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
guru267 wrote:
mjuaji wa stocks wrote:
I am buying co-op bank @19/- ….to exit @30/- ….targeting march 2011.


I am buying equity @ 26….to exit @ 41…….targeting march 2011


The more they come down…the better for me…

Equity at 41?? Wa!!! This is starting to look like 2007 all over again where stock prices were crazy...


its very possible...we are still in a cyclical bull...but we can be sure a few years from now you will still be able to buy the said stocks @20.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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