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KenolKobil & Total-Kenya Valuation and Recommendation
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mwekez@ji
#11 Posted : Wednesday, July 31, 2013 2:29:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Total Kenya Heads for Biggest Gain in 16 Months: Nairobi Mover

Total Kenya Ltd., the unit of Europe’s third-largest oil company, headed for the biggest gain in 16 months after Standard Investment Bank Ltd. raised its recommendation on the stock to a buy from sell.

The shares advanced 9.6 percent to 16.50 shillings by 12:18 p.m. in the capital, Nairobi, the most on a closing basis since March 2012. More than 3.8 times the three-month daily average of shares were traded.
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Aguytrying
#12 Posted : Wednesday, July 31, 2013 5:55:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I have read that analysis. very little info on how valuation was arrived on, and. I still dont understand. one mistake people do is to calculate eps and pe without the preference shares. yes they don't dilute the profits now, but on redemption their full effects will be felt. always consider them. then id like to know how they arrived attendance the "value of operations" for total k.
but who am I to argue with and investment bank, I'm just a guy trying.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Mukiri
#13 Posted : Wednesday, July 31, 2013 8:34:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
I'm learning to play along with the 'owners' of NSE... when its all bad news, buy. When the good news starts streaming in, sell.

If you can't beat them, join themSad

Proverbs 19:21
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mwekez@ji
#14 Posted : Thursday, August 01, 2013 11:47:22 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@Aguy, have a look at the complete report below. The valuation model is well laid out and a sensitivity analysis done. >>> http://sib.co.ke/media/docs/Ken...Gas-Update-July-2013.pdf
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mkonomtupu
#15 Posted : Thursday, August 01, 2013 12:42:08 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Aguy, have a look at the complete report below. The valuation model is well laid out and a sensitivity analysis done. >>> http://sib.co.ke/media/docs/Ken...Gas-Update-July-2013.pdf


i have read the report and think the profit expectation for total is high but the support from the mother company trumps KK so if you have a long term view 2017 and beyond i would go for total.

all in all there are better sectors to invest in and which are likely to absorb the oil boom cash faster and more efficiently. The margins in this sector are still pitiful
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guru267
#16 Posted : Thursday, August 01, 2013 6:24:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
At this stage I would pick total over KK any day if I had to pick one!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Aguytrying
#17 Posted : Thursday, August 01, 2013 8:23:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Aguy, have a look at the complete report below. The valuation model is well laid out and a sensitivity analysis done. >>> http://sib.co.ke/media/docs/Ken...Gas-Update-July-2013.pdf


Well. I guess I don't understand their analysis
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwekez@ji
#18 Posted : Tuesday, August 06, 2013 2:01:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji
#19 Posted : Tuesday, August 06, 2013 2:03:48 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@Kausha, still waiting for KK 1H13 results. late july is now gone and early august is going. whatz up
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Aguytrying
#20 Posted : Tuesday, August 06, 2013 1:56:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mwekez@ji wrote:
@Kausha, still waiting for KK 1H13 results. late july is now gone and early august is going. whatz up


delayed results are rarely good
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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