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ARM Cement Ltd 1H13 results
ngapat
#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 9:45:39 AM
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http://t.co/pX4PRhVKV8

up 28%
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
youcan'tstopusnow
#2 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 9:49:53 AM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
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Location: Black Africa
The deluge that is earnings season beginssmile
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
cnn
#3 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 9:51:50 AM
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Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,622
Cash generated from operations...2 billion from 68k....EPS and Turnover up by similar margins.
They expect a strong growth in the second half,with the annualised EPS @ 2.83, i find the current price still too high,but if they keep up the growth as per the outlook the future looks good.
mwekez@ji
#4 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 10:01:03 AM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
The deluge that is earnings season beginssmile

Kausha
#5 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 10:55:53 AM
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@cnn the price is up there because all their capacity projects are on course for delivery within target times. They started grinding in Dar - 750,000 tonnes late last year. The 1.2m tonnes Tanga Clinker plant and 750k tonnes Tanga grinding plant comes onstream in October 2013. Their Kenyan capacity is about 960k tonnes per annum. In other words in 2014 this company should be twice the size it is now and investors are pricing that in. Margins in tanzania and 10 percentage points higher than kenya and uganda.
Ericsson
#6 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 11:30:06 AM
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the price is so much overvalued if EPS is compared to Price per share
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
dunkang
#7 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 12:16:39 PM
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ngapat wrote:
http://t.co/pX4PRhVKV8

up 28%

The PE is too high to my liking!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

mwekez@ji
#8 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 12:18:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Kausha wrote:
@cnn the price is up there because all their capacity projects are on course for delivery within target times. They started grinding in Dar - 750,000 tonnes late last year. The 1.2m tonnes Tanga Clinker plant and 750k tonnes Tanga grinding plant comes onstream in October 2013. Their Kenyan capacity is about 960k tonnes per annum. In other words in 2014 this company should be twice the size it is now and investors are pricing that in. Margins in tanzania and 10 percentage points higher than kenya and uganda.


The 750,000 tonne cement grinding plant in Dar es Salaam was commissioned in October 2012 and sales from this additional capacity were reflected in the higher 1H 2013 revenues. The impact of the grinding plant on revenue is lesser than expected but will be watching this going forward. … The 1.2m tonne clinker plant in Tanga will be commissioned in 1Q14 meaning its impact on cost saving from ceasing importation of clinker will be felt next year. …. company is highly leveraged and there is the ghost of convertible debt leading to dilution. …. All this and more considered, &IMHO, the share price is still overvalued
Ericsson
#9 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 12:22:17 PM
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Posts: 10,779
Location: NAIROBI
The current price is like 2 to 3 years ahead of the company's financial performance
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mwekez@ji
#10 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 12:33:20 PM
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Ericsson wrote:
The current price is like 2 to 3 years ahead of the company's financial performance

jerry
#11 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 3:06:48 PM
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Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
dunkang wrote:
ngapat wrote:
http://t.co/pX4PRhVKV8

up 28%

The PE is too high to my liking!

or licking!!!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
mwekez@ji
#12 Posted : Wednesday, July 10, 2013 11:48:31 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
ARM to list its non-cement business separately by 2016 http://www.businessdailyafrica....22/-/jhnl20/-/index.html
omega
#13 Posted : Friday, July 12, 2013 8:06:33 PM
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Joined: 6/9/2009
Posts: 85
ARM Cement Ltd ( BUY, KSh 80.00 )

ARM Cement has released its 1H13 results, posting 28% y/y revenue growth. On a seasonally-adjusted run-rate basis, revenue was 8% short of our forecasts. We anticipate stronger production in 2H13, driven by new capacity. From the limited disclosures, we infer that the implied production numbers were lower-than-expected; we thus cut our FY13e EPS by 9%, but upgrade our TP after having revised our assumptions.
■ FY13e revenue target cut by 6% on lower production: Given the reported revenue growth for 1H13, we make slight adjustments to our production estimates; we cut the Tanzania utilisation rate from 54% to 45%, implying production of c.0.42mt, based on available capacity. This adjustment reduces our FY13 revenue target by 6% to KSh15 . 0bn. We leave our FY14e utilisation rates and production estimates unchanged.
■ Margins still under pressure from imported clinker: The 1H13 results suggest that the reported 10.8% net margin is still under pressure, which we believe is due to the higher cost of the imported clinker (+c.74% more expensive than locally produced clinker on our estimates) being used at the Dar es Salaam grinding plant. We expect some margin recovery in FY14e (+400bps), with the Tanga clinker plant expected to be operational in 4Q13e.
■ Medium-term revenue outlook still strong: The 28% y/y reported revenue growth accentuates the upside from new capacity in Tanzania. We therefore continue to track developments on the commissioning of the Tanga plant, given that clinker production is key to margin improvement and cement production. We estimate total cement sales to accelerate by c.30% y/y to 1.3mtpa in FY13e. We still view ARM as our preferred sector pick, given the anticipated growth from the deployment of new capacity.

We upgrade our TP to KSh80.00 (previously KSh70.00) on minor assumption changes; we adjust our average EBITDA margin to 26.4% (+40bps) on improving efficiencies over our forecast period. Our core view on ARM is unchanged; we still foresee upside from operational gearing and ROE improvement in the medium term. Reiterate BUY.


Source - SBG Securities (Pty)
Angelica _ann
#14 Posted : Friday, July 12, 2013 8:11:20 PM
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Joined: 12/7/2012
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Duplication, there is a thread already on ARM half year results
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
omega
#15 Posted : Friday, July 12, 2013 8:32:46 PM
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Joined: 6/9/2009
Posts: 85
Angelica _ann wrote:
Duplication, there is a thread already on ARM half year results


I know the half year results were released a couple of days ago, but this is about the BUY recommendation.
mwekez@ji
#16 Posted : Saturday, July 13, 2013 9:46:28 AM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
omega wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Duplication, there is a thread already on ARM half year results


I know the half year results were released a couple of days ago, but this is about the BUY recommendation.


Then you should give the thread an approprate title. Something like "ARM, production ramp-up encouraging, BUY" ... Otherwise, the thread in its present title is a duplication
mwekez@ji
#17 Posted : Monday, August 05, 2013 2:55:29 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
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King G
#18 Posted : Monday, August 05, 2013 4:00:20 PM
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Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo


These house teams/committees and their fake probes. Bahasha galore!!
Thieves
mwekez@ji
#19 Posted : Tuesday, August 06, 2013 2:46:33 AM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
The ministry of mining has proposed 1% royalties on gross sales value of industrial minerals, including limestone which if passed by parliament would squeeze margins of cement manufacturers.
mwekez@ji
#20 Posted : Wednesday, August 07, 2013 3:19:47 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Mining law casts cloud over cement companies

Standard Investment Bank markets analyst Eric Musau said while it is possible for the cement companies to absorb the one per cent levy, the bigger question remains on how the government will go about the proposal to acquire a 10 per cent free carried interest.
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