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KQ up,up & away
MaichBlack
#21 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 8:51:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,455
Will definitely hit 30/= this week but might be back at 24 before year end. The current market environment is bure kabisa. You can't be sure when to buy,hold or sell. Short term - very volatile. Long term,just use WB's model. Never mind if the price has hit the bottom. Simply ask yourself 'Is the price fair given the fundamentals?' I wish someone can give us more info on this movement.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
VituVingiSana
#22 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 9:00:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Speculation for what? There are no results due for 6 months... unless there is something we do not know... BA-Iberia merger is the only major airline news that can affect KQ... could anyone be looking at a merger with KQ?

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Pierce
#23 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 9:20:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
Has to be the WC then!! Must be
mlefu
#24 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 9:29:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/11/2007
Posts: 1,680
Location: nairobi
pierce knows somethings..she has been for KQ last one week..twambie.

i love your smile....

Ever had a bath so hot,that as you lower urself in 'Oo! Oo! Oo! Aa! Aa! Aa..ahhh…ohhh yeahh eehhh yeahh!'.
VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 10:00:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
well... there are no significant sellers @28 (though there are bidders @28)... unless they are hiding... but that could hold for many other shares today...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mturi
#26 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 10:33:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/29/2009
Posts: 25
@VituVingiSana

I was giving a comment on the share price not profits and not necessarily opposing your views. Am KQ shareholder and share price gains or profits would be good news but I believe were are on this site for objective discussion to help each other as members and then each member can make their own independent conclusions (or perhaps do further research). I have flown KQ a number of times and their Boeings are good and Morden,more than enough space to stretch your feet etc. but I don&rsquo;t know if they still operate their older fleet (depends on where you are travelling to).

The details of the hedges are disclosed in the financial statements as required by IFRS. Although these position can be unwound any time,KQ tend to hedge 50 to 60%. When oil prices are high,they make gains and vice versa but the fact that they report huge gains/losses may be an indicator that the hedges are not effective. If fuel prices suddenly fall,they could report huge losses. You can check a number of previous years FS and there is a disclosure required for sensitivity of positions held. Although the information may not be detailed enough,it can give u a glimpse of risks etc. Some of the potential losses/gains are fair values which unless the position are unwound before contract maturity may not crystallise as actual losses/gains,especially if the contracts are rolled over but at very least represent opportunity costs (potential gains) from the volatility of oil prices. You cannot know how oil prices will move but there are a number of information/ price providers who estimate the forward curves of oil prices based on estimated production/ demand,information from commodity markets.
VituVingiSana
#27 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 10:48:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
@mturi - KQ's official policy on hedging is for 'risk management'... yes,the information is inadequate though more than they gave us last year.
* Unless KQ disclosed their hedges as of 30 Sep 2009 (the info was NOT provided in sufficient detail) it is difficult to calculate the gains/losses on the hedge positions.
** The price of oil can & will vary in the next financial year. I believe cheaper (less than $108) will benefit KQ much more than the losses from the 'old' hedges.
*** I (like you) am certain that KQ entered into other hedges after 1 April 2009 which would have been more favourable than the 'old' hedges.
**** KQ will still have to pay real cash (not just book entries) as the 'old' hedges expire. This is a negative for KQ but the good news is that they have to pay less than accounted for in the 2008-9 FY.
***** The Forward Curve was wrong in 2008... KQ was told by its 'consultants' thqt oil was going to $200 (Naikuni even emphasized this)... The Forward Curve is at best an intelligent guess... but not always right in scale or in the same direction...
****** I just hope that KQ has bet the right way this time around!
******* Ultimately,how is KQ doing as a business? If it cant keep its passengers happy... it does NOT matter if oil is at $10... it will go broke!

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sokomjinga
#28 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 10:52:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/5/2008
Posts: 183
British Airways and Iberia are both making losses. So what does that mean when they merge?:

They will try to cut costs by cutting on manpower,consolidating flights and routes and maybe expand into new markets.

I do not see this affecting KQ/KLM in fact it should help them. Iberia is very strong in the south american market and I wonder how strong the KQ/KLM presence is there.

What KQ needs is improvement in all fields,Management,Service,Ivestment etc for them to remain relevant in the flying industry. Everyone wants to fly,but they do not want to fly in Matatus with bad mannered makanga's. The improvement has to begin at the home airport.



All beginnings are difficult ..... ..... everything has an end,only a sausage has two.
Taunet Neelel ..... New Beginning .....
VituVingiSana
#29 Posted : Monday, November 16, 2009 11:01:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
@sokomjinga said: 'Everyone wants to fly,but they do not want to fly in Matatus with bad mannered makanga's. The improvement has to begin at the home airport.'

********************************************************************************************
KQ is out of luck coz the crooks (muhoho's term was extended to finish what he started) are in control at JKIA (KQ's main hub). There was a time when even PARKING planes was a problem for KQ. I recall a flight that I was on was delayed because the plane had to wait until another one parked behind it was removed! Traffic jam!
*** And JKIA needs a 2nd runway. One accident - even a minor one - can shut the airport down for hours.

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Tuesday, November 17, 2009 11:51:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
KQ briefly touched 29.50 but then fell back to 28. Resistance level or end of the line?

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
flywhisk
#31 Posted : Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:19:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2009
Posts: 20
@ VVS,end of the line. That I'm so sure of
mv ufanisi
#32 Posted : Tuesday, November 17, 2009 2:25:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 108
the highest trade was at 30 Kshs.

funny thing the stock market is - one counter can just run off while other equally deserving counters are stagnating.
cnn
#33 Posted : Tuesday, November 17, 2009 3:26:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
@flywhisk
soon you will be proved wrong.

see it through my lens?
flywhisk
#34 Posted : Tuesday, November 17, 2009 4:52:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2009
Posts: 20
@ cnn,can we take a bet?
cnn
#35 Posted : Tuesday, November 17, 2009 4:56:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
@flywhisk
i would rather bid for more KQ at less than 30,we may have pullbacks but the trend is higher.

see it through my lens?
Pierce
#36 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 5:20:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
31st Mar 2010 - Kshs 50

I'm willing to bet Kshs 5,000
mlefu
#37 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 7:45:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/11/2007
Posts: 1,680
Location: nairobi
pierce...the bet is on..5k..march 2010.

still on JBL..hope it hits below 100 again and soon..placing another bet on this.

i love your smile....

flywhisk
#38 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 8:04:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2009
Posts: 20
@ Mlefu and Pearce,the bet is on. I wonder why cnn is so shy to bet. umejificha wapi?
Pierce
#39 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 8:26:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
Mlefu,I hope you are serious on this one.
VituVingiSana
#40 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2009 12:09:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
Pity we do not have options or a way to 'formalize' the betting going on!

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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