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Kenol Kobil deal off!
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:Kausha wrote:I think information assymetry in this market is a shocker really. It's only one bigger seller selling and has nothing to do with wanting out because of performance. I will save all of you this headache. Certain hotels are being sold in Nairobi, Mombasa right...and certain buyers have put up their hands! Are those hotel owners desperate selling at dirt low prices? The shares (being sold) in the hotel belong to GoK. The buyers are connected. So GoK selling to connected folks on the cheap. Nothing new. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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Kausha wrote:I think information assymetry in this market is a shocker really. It's only one bigger seller selling and has nothing to do with wanting out because of performance. I will save all of you this headache. Certain hotels are being sold in Nairobi, Mombasa right...and certain buyers have put up their hands! Hmmm, I did not think of that. So the seller/s is/are the same chaps, eh? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:Kausha wrote:For those who were at the kenol CP forum yesterday, you got an assurance from the Group CEO - Ohana that they will be profitable this year certainly.
On the article, it appears it's the work of the enemies. The OTS matters is before the ERC and will be resolved very shortly.
Although my selfish reason would be for the OTS matter not to be resolved. It just allows Kenol to import their fuel efficiently and bypass the KPC ullage and KPRL, saving the extra chums spent at KPRL for no value add. Indeed it is your selfish call for the OTS matter not be resolved. We know KK cannot import fuel directly because of storage and working capital constraints. They are desperating hawking the KES 1.7B commercial paper and selling "idle assets" to finance working capital. The optimism painted by Ohana at CP forum yesterday is to lure you to give him the KES 1.7B Alright... they are working to sort out the situation. And they seem positive about 2H. Also the case vs KPRL will 'restart' in 3Q 2013 [election petitions delays] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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dunkang wrote:King G wrote:dunkang wrote:someone is trying to bring KK down! The media obsession with this stock is now suspiscious(sp)! Every day they are planting a NEGATIVE story on KK Everyday there is a NEW, BADLY RESEARCHED story. This people want to finish @VVS LMAO... I will survive Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/25/2012 Posts: 110
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VituVingiSana wrote:dunkang wrote:King G wrote:dunkang wrote:someone is trying to bring KK down! The media obsession with this stock is now suspiscious(sp)! Every day they are planting a NEGATIVE story on KK Everyday there is a NEW, BADLY RESEARCHED story. This people want to finish @VVS LMAO... I will survive I pray for you too There is nothing as dangerous as an Idea, when there is only one Idea
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:maina20 wrote:hisah wrote:I am reminded of one oil stock called BP back in April 2010 after the gulf oil spill. The negative news deluge caused a massive shakeout. KK is experiencing a similar setup. If H1 results come in badly, more will get spooked. Looking forward to that period. The fear gauge is getting overloaded... Expect a positive half year results.....u can take this to the bank... @maina you are probably in for a rude shock!! Sorry in advance... 1H break-even coz KK has complained about the financing costs. 2H profitable with lower debts/loans and lower interest rates. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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winston wrote:Kausha wrote:For those who were at the kenol CP forum yesterday, you got an assurance from the Group CEO - Ohana that they will be profitable this year certainly.
On the article, it appears it's the work of the enemies. The OTS matters is before the ERC and will be resolved very shortly.
Although my selfish reason would be for the OTS matter not to be resolved. It just allows Kenol to import their fuel efficiently and bypass the KPC ullage and KPRL, saving the extra chums spent at KPRL for no value add.
Be as that might be...even if KK bypasses KPC & KPRL, the volumes so bypassed cannot be significant to increase their profitability since they dont have independent tanks large enough at the ship offloading point. They will still need KPC to store and pump the fuel. Trucking the fuel inland is not very economical expecially in this era of regulated pump prices. The issue at the moment is not with KPC but KPRL. KPC cannot deny KK access to the storage tanks as it stands. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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Point is if Kenol Kobil didn't have fuel you would be feeling the heat at the pump price. The last time dear old Nyoike tried getting them of their KPC and Ullage, mwananchi had to pay 10 bob premium for fuel. They simply paid total and oil libya 85 bob for 80 bob diesel and repriced the same to 90 bob resulting in every OMC repricing to 90 bob. We all know how that ended. Look Kenol controls the network outside nairobi by a huge difference. You can't wish them away. The media reports are smear campaigns and sometimes you can't rule out Kenol itself airing them out. Specifically the KPRL issues to get government attention I suspect. a substantial amount of fuel is trucked. KPC infrastructure is very limited. Kenol also has no destructive squables with KPC at the moment and can pump fuel as and when.
For every litre KK bypasses they save 10 shillings in refining fees. So provided they can maintain volumes at their stations frankly speaking to shareholders they can continue shadow boxing KPRL. KPC is already shipping KK's fuel to inland depots.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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KK can also use 'transport' as a storage mechanism. If you start shipping out fuel from your depots, then your depots [storage tanks] can be filled up with 'incoming' fuel. As is the only fuel KK doesn't have access to is from KPRL. It costs KK a few KShs to get it from OTS via other firms e.g. the smaller firms or briefcase dealers. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/16/2013 Posts: 123 Location: MSA
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VituVingiSana wrote:KK can also use 'transport' as a storage mechanism. If you start shipping out fuel from your depots, then your depots [storage tanks] can be filled up with 'incoming' fuel. As is the only fuel KK doesn't have access to is from KPRL. It costs KK a few KShs to get it from OTS via other firms e.g. the smaller firms or briefcase dealers. Its certainly obvious that no OMC can survive outside the OTS. The marketshare of KK is too big to be satisfied by these "brief case dealers" albeit at a premium. If you are kicked out of the OTS, you are no different from the small timers looking for fuel becomes an everyday affair, not easy if you have to satisfy 8,000M3 everyday!And in this business even Ksh0.50 could mean your profitability. To KK holders, its back in the OTS so no worries! Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
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Rank: Hello Joined: 7/4/2013 Posts: 2
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[quote=Afroblk]KenolKobil now selling assets! This is not good at all. Kisumu depot is one of their important depots for that region. http://www.theeastafrica...0/-/287gw7/-/index.html[/quote] The Depots for sale are storage not fuel depots. Not essential for business. The Kisumu terminal in KPC will be retained, its vital for their export business.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Funny how the board is talking of restoring profitability in two to three years.... Nothing about h1 or h2 2013 Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:Funny how the board is talking of restoring profitability in two to three years.... Nothing about h1 or h2 2013 I'm so waiting for that H1 2013 results release reality check. Once a strong price support is broken down (9/-), the market signal is loud and clear. KK capitulation is not yet done. That 5yr chart needs to get oversold (and it will)... By then KK wil be a hated stock with few discussions taking place. KQ has been forgotten, KK will follow soon.
At some point these 2 (kk & kq) will offer a nice multi year contrarian setup. @deal - hope you're looking at the larger time frame for that contra play. Large bounce (turn window) likely towards end of 2014 into 2015. The best setup will be when the daily, weekly and monthly as well as 5yr chart are all deeply oversold...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/1/2011 Posts: 396
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musonw wrote:[quote=Afroblk]KenolKobil now selling assets! This is not good at all. Kisumu depot is one of their important depots for that region. http://www.theeastafrica...0/-/287gw7/-/index.html[/quote] The Depots for sale are storage not fuel depots. Not essential for business. The Kisumu terminal in KPC will be retained, its vital for their export business. Pardon my ignorance, but what does that mean? Is Kenol importing crude to store in these depots? If not, then they are storing refined crude, popularly known as fuel. Unless they are storing other commodities such as grain?
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/1/2011 Posts: 396
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Kausha wrote:Point is if Kenol Kobil didn't have fuel you would be feeling the heat at the pump price. The last time dear old Nyoike tried getting them of their KPC and Ullage, mwananchi had to pay 10 bob premium for fuel. They simply paid total and oil libya 85 bob for 80 bob diesel and repriced the same to 90 bob resulting in every OMC repricing to 90 bob. We all know how that ended. Look Kenol controls the network outside nairobi by a huge difference. You can't wish them away. The media reports are smear campaigns and sometimes you can't rule out Kenol itself airing them out. Specifically the KPRL issues to get government attention I suspect. a substantial amount of fuel is trucked. KPC infrastructure is very limited. Kenol also has no destructive squables with KPC at the moment and can pump fuel as and when.
For every litre KK bypasses they save 10 shillings in refining fees. So provided they can maintain volumes at their stations frankly speaking to shareholders they can continue shadow boxing KPRL. KPC is already shipping KK's fuel to inland depots. Uhhh...no?! Pump prices are controlled by ERC. If a firm's production costs exceed the allowable pump price range, they have to either absorb the costs (at a loss) or withhold selling fuel (also at a loss due to financing costs & storage costs) or stop collecting fuel from the refinery (also at a cost since the money falls due ANYWAY once you've confirmed your order). When faced with these tough choices, most firms would probably sell fuel at a loss, sell non-core assets, optimize internal operating costs and hope for the best.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:Funny how the board is talking of restoring profitability in two to three years.... Nothing about h1 or h2 2013 I'm so waiting for that H1 2013 results release reality check. Once a strong price support is broken down (9/-), the market signal is loud and clear. KK capitulation is not yet done. That 5yr chart needs to get oversold (and it will)... By then KK wil be a hated stock with few discussions taking place. KQ has been forgotten, KK will follow soon.
At some point these 2 (kk & kq) will offer a nice multi year contrarian setup. @deal - hope you're looking at the larger time frame for that contra play. Large bounce (turn window) likely towards end of 2014 into 2015. The best setup will be when the daily, weekly and monthly as well as 5yr chart are all deeply oversold... When are we having this party? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:Funny how the board is talking of restoring profitability in two to three years.... Nothing about h1 or h2 2013 I'm so waiting for that H1 2013 results release reality check. Once a strong price support is broken down (9/-), the market signal is loud and clear. KK capitulation is not yet done. That 5yr chart needs to get oversold (and it will)... By then KK wil be a hated stock with few discussions taking place. KQ has been forgotten, KK will follow soon.
At some point these 2 (kk & kq) will offer a nice multi year contrarian setup. @deal - hope you're looking at the larger time frame for that contra play. Large bounce (turn window) likely towards end of 2014 into 2015. The best setup will be when the daily, weekly and monthly as well as 5yr chart are all deeply oversold... When are we having this party? ...... far away
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@hisah Kenol will not go below 7bob even if H1 2013 earnings dissapoints...people are expecting the Company to collapse...the headlines have been too bearish...any good news going forward will send the stock surging...in the 2011 bear run if my portfolio wasnt heavily skewed to KK...I will have suffered heavy paper losses...let everything rally...I will exit my other positions and take a heavy position on KK in anticipation for a buy out...every market event is an opportunity...it depends on how you view it...and I fully support the board for delaying the sell....let them create or unlock value first...then invite the highest bidder...in the next 2-3 years there will be a bear run at the NSE....and if the takeover is sealed at that time...KK will have many groupies....
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