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Olympia Capital FY2012-13 PBT drops a massive 74%
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guru267
#11 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 9:58:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
guru267 wrote:
... I'm back in Olympia at anywhere between 2.5-3.5bob smile


buying price range that is 40% apart??? ... P/E range 16-23 in such a crap company???


Mboss there is no stress here! Its always about getting in at the right price... And for Olympia its below 3bob just like paka below 2bob!

NAV still remains at 26bob so if they were to give up and and liquidate the company investors would a serious serious killing!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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dunkang
#12 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 10:02:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Olympia has stakes in:

Dunlop Kenya Limited: vinyl floor tiles and
vinyl sheeting;

Mather+Platt: Fire extinguishers.

Olympia Capital Corp: The holding subsidiary for businesses in southern Africa.

Kalahari Floor Tiles: vinyl floor tiles and vinyl sheeting in Botswana.

Yokota SA: Deals with curtains in S.A. www.yokotasa.com

Natural Wooden Products
(NatWood): Wood products in S.A. http://natwood.ecurb.co.za/page/about_natwood.htm
This firm and paka are both at the mercy of the chinese products importers.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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winston
#13 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 10:03:56 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
I thought most of that NAV is on property which is prone to valuation mischief. But I agree with Guru - it would be a nice speculative play at sub 3/=.

Just thinking that if somebody wanted to enter the NSE Via backdoor they could do those takeovers ala city-trust and I&M on Olympia.
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mwekez@ji
#14 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 11:48:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
guru267 wrote:
... I'm back in Olympia at anywhere between 2.5-3.5bob smile


buying price range that is 40% apart??? ... P/E range 16-23 in such a crap company???


Mboss there is no stress here! Its always about getting in at the right price... And for Olympia its below 3bob just like paka below 2bob!

NAV still remains at 26bob so if they were to give up and and liquidate the company investors would a serious serious killing!


Mboss, Note to deduct non-controlling interest and goodwill when deducing your NAV. Also note property were last year revalued upwards by 85% (from KES 348M to KES 643M) and incase of liquidation it’s the Forced Sale Value that would be important and not these said Open Market Values. That said, i concur the company is trading below its NAV which is good for you incase the company dies. Before death of the company, wallow in misery incomes
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guru267
#15 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 12:44:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
Note to deduct non-controlling interest and goodwill when deducing your NAV. Also note property were last year revalued upwards by 85% (from KES 348M to KES 643M) and incase of liquidation it’s the Forced Sale Value that would be important and not these said Open Market Values. That said, i concur the company is trading below its NAV which is good for you incase the company dies. Before death of the company, wallow in misery incomes


@Mwekez@ji the best investors in this world are always objective! Its the only way you will see through the noise..

I hear you about good will, property revaluations, FSV and NCI!!

But when we strip out all of these from the balance sheet we still have a NAV per share of 10.25bob...

If I get in at 4.15bob today that is still a 150% return in case of liquidation tomorrow!smile

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwekez@ji
#16 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 12:59:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Note to deduct non-controlling interest and goodwill when deducing your NAV. Also note property were last year revalued upwards by 85% (from KES 348M to KES 643M) and incase of liquidation it’s the Forced Sale Value that would be important and not these said Open Market Values. That said, i concur the company is trading below its NAV which is good for you incase the company dies. Before death of the company, wallow in misery incomes


@Mwekez@ji the best investors in this world are always objective! Its the only way you will see through the noise..

I hear you about good will, property revaluations, FSV and NCI!!

But when we strip out all of these from the balance sheet we still have a NAV per share of 10.25bob...

If I get in at 4.15bob today that is still a 150% return in case of liquidation tomorrow!smile



smile We now tally on the NAV figure and agree on the perspective. May the price slide to the <3
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VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 2:34:18 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
guru267 wrote:
... I'm back in Olympia at anywhere between 2.5-3.5bob smile


buying price range that is 40% apart??? ... P/E range 16-23 in such a crap company???


Mboss there is no stress here! Its always about getting in at the right price... And for Olympia its below 3bob just like paka below 2bob!

NAV still remains at 26bob so if they were to give up and and liquidate the company investors would a serious serious killing!
Please walk me through the mathematics of NAV of 26/share.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#18 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 3:18:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
guru267 wrote:
... I'm back in Olympia at anywhere between 2.5-3.5bob smile


buying price range that is 40% apart??? ... P/E range 16-23 in such a crap company???


Mboss there is no stress here! Its always about getting in at the right price... And for Olympia its below 3bob just like paka below 2bob!

NAV still remains at 26bob so if they were to give up and and liquidate the company investors would a serious serious killing!
Please walk me through the mathematics of NAV of 26/share.


@VVS

Basically shareholder funds of 1,074,362,000 divided by 40 million shares.. You get 26.85bob!

but if you strip down Goodwill, Revaluations, NCI and consider FSV then the NAV per share falls to about 10bob
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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selah
#19 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 3:26:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
guru267 wrote:
... I'm back in Olympia at anywhere between 2.5-3.5bob smile


buying price range that is 40% apart??? ... P/E range 16-23 in such a crap company???


Mboss there is no stress here! Its always about getting in at the right price... And for Olympia its below 3bob just like paka below 2bob!

NAV still remains at 26bob so if they were to give up and and liquidate the company investors would a serious serious killing!
Please walk me through the mathematics of NAV of 26/share.


@Guru267 Using NAV in this company is a risky move look at the two items in assets.

1.Amount due from related parties =369M
2.Trade and other Receivables =379M

These amounts make up about 40% of total assets.when you factor in the exaggerations in PPE. NAV would be a risky way to value this company.

'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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guru267
#20 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2013 3:57:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
selah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
guru267 wrote:
... I'm back in Olympia at anywhere between 2.5-3.5bob smile


buying price range that is 40% apart??? ... P/E range 16-23 in such a crap company???


Mboss there is no stress here! Its always about getting in at the right price... And for Olympia its below 3bob just like paka below 2bob!

NAV still remains at 26bob so if they were to give up and and liquidate the company investors would a serious serious killing!
Please walk me through the mathematics of NAV of 26/share.


@Guru267 Using NAV in this company is a risky move look at the two items in assets.

1.Amount due from related parties =369M
2.Trade and other Receivables =379M

These amounts make up about 40% of total assets.when you factor in the exaggerations in PPE. NAV would be a risky way to value this company.



I have already factored in what you are calling "exegerrated" property values but what shows that those receivables should be in doubt because they also have more due to related parties??

Yes its always risky to use NAV on its own but not when the price is at 3bob and below!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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