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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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symbols
#3681 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 9:59:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
hisah wrote:
symbols wrote:
Kenyan shares extend bear run, shilling steady

I like bear news as the market nose dives.


Why?
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mwekez@ji
#3682 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 11:40:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
symbols wrote:
hisah wrote:
symbols wrote:
Kenyan shares extend bear run, shilling steady

I like bear news as the market nose dives.


Why?


fear is being spread in the streets ...
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mwekez@ji
#3683 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 11:43:24 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
... the market is getting conspicuously oversold
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symbols
#3684 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 12:00:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
mwekez@ji wrote:
... the market is getting conspicuously oversold


The most important thing dominating the financial world is what @guru said.There is nowhere to run.
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symbols
#3685 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 3:22:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
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hisah
#3686 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 6:18:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
symbols wrote:
hisah wrote:
symbols wrote:
Kenyan shares extend bear run, shilling steady

I like bear news as the market nose dives.


Why?

Emotion runs the market. The more extreme it gets the sooner the market trends turns against the crowd. The headlines were too bullish. Now they start getting bearish. Soon we'll get to the bear extreme headlines. That's how it works. Oh, I'm also liking the numerous real estate threads popping up. Stocks going out of fashion. You shop for discounts when the crowd goes to sleep. When they return, you offload. That's if you prefer trading.

Btw EA fundies look solid. Capital inflows will continue. The next rally above 5030 will be interesting once the weak hands have been shaken out. I expect euphoria to return on that breakout. I will be surprised if NSE doesn't breakdown or at least test 6161 all time high by next year assuming the investment climate remains sunny.

The oil put hasn't been played yet. The joker card is still under wraps...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#3687 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 6:33:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
... the market is getting conspicuously oversold

Yep. It has tested 4580 objective as per yesterday's close of 4584. A bounce is in order. 4700 - 4800 levels are now support turned resistance. 4800 will likely cap that bounce since those who joined late will take the bounce as a chance to offload the losses they're stuck with at the moment. So seller will outweigh buyers except where the stock has fair value. HFCK has been resilient. Strange to see centum also holding on...

For 2013 line in the sand is 4133, if broken down on the slide will erase all the year's rally. That will see aggressive selling. This will be extreme fear...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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guru267
#3688 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 6:35:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Global markets started recovering two days ago... Given the time I expect the NSE shake down to end!

IN FACT I DARE THE NSE 20 TO CLOSE DOWN TODAY!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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murchr
#3689 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 6:39:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
symbols wrote:
hisah wrote:
symbols wrote:
Kenyan shares extend bear run, shilling steady

I like bear news as the market nose dives.


Why?

Emotion runs the market. The more extreme it gets the sooner the market trends turns against the crowd. The headlines were too bullish. Now they start getting bearish. Soon we'll get to the bear extreme headlines. That's how it works. Oh, I'm also liking the numerous real estate threads popping up. Stocks going out of fashion. You shop for discounts when the crowd goes to sleep. When they return, you offload. That's if you prefer trading.

Btw EA fundies look solid. Capital inflows will continue. The next rally above 5030 will be interesting once the weak hands have been shaken out. I expect euphoria to return on that breakout. I will be surprised if NSE doesn't breakdown or at least test 6161 all time high by next year assuming the investment climate remains sunny.

The oil put hasn't been played yet. The joker card is still under wraps...


Shhhh!!!Usiongee sana,....i'm still picking some b4 they announce Ngamia (or Nagamia) as they call it haha!! The news will drive some vultures in this market.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#3690 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 6:42:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
Global markets started recovering two days ago... Given the time I expect the NSE shake down to end!

IN FACT I DARE THE NSE 20 TO CLOSE DOWN TODAY!!

June ends with an ugly reversal. July will bounce some and most likely close lower than June.

The rally coming in July is just a relief bounce as per the cartoons. Bado discounts are coming. Continue window shopping for great deals on sale...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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the deal
#3691 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 7:39:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
1. NSE oversold in June...relief rally in July!

2. August earnings season start-market could still rally....most likely touch 5,030 depending on earnings strength! Key sectors to watch: Banking & Insurance...others Kenol...KQ...etc

3. Real slaughter this time next year...by that time...Yields on T-Bills could be in double digits!
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guru267
#3692 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 8:35:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Global markets started recovering two days ago... Given the time I expect the NSE shake down to end!

IN FACT I DARE THE NSE 20 TO CLOSE DOWN TODAY!!

June ends with an ugly reversal. July will bounce some and most likely close lower than June.

The rally coming in July is just a relief bounce as per the cartoons. Bado discounts are coming. Continue window shopping for great deals on sale...


@hisah stop looking at the NSE in isolation... Ever since the foreigners raided our market the corelation to global markets has risen tremendously...

Global markets are in recovery mode now and this will now translate to the NSE with a two or three day time lag...


If you want to know how the NSE will perform then you must follow the DOW Industrial Av. and the S&P 500... As simple as that!

So like I said the NSE closes higher today by force!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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the deal
#3693 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 8:51:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Interesting the NSE20 share index is down 2.3% in 3 sessions since breaking 4,700. Any future upside momentum depends on reclaiming this mark...indeed previous support has now turned into resistance...only strong earnings season can save this market! lets see if the bankers can put on their cooking skills and deliver better q/q growth...my bet is earnings will be lifted by bonds...but there is danger that creditt uptake was still slow and net interest margins (NIM) got squeezed...also NPL's...South Sudan could slow KCB and Member while HF could be slowed by NPL's...it will be interesting to look at HF's interim NIM and Gross NPL/advances ratio...CFC should deliver stunning growth..Coop and DTB expected to mantain Q1 momentum although Coop could be slowed down by sluggish growth in NIR....NBK no comment!

Cream has been taken off the insurance sectors earnings due to the current correction...but Liberty...CIC...Britam could deliver impressive interim numbers.

Industrials...EABL to dissapoint...KenGen to deliver double digit growth...Mumias to dissapoint...Kenya Power outlook too negative...Bamburi & ARM could be lifted by regional subsidiaries...Q1 in Kenya was slow. Transcentury should deliver stunning numbers as some of those construction projects mature...also Chai Bora sold in H1 2013.

Media...NMG & SGL should do well due to elections.

Overall interesting earnings season coming up.
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Museveni
#3694 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 9:02:46 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 660
the deal wrote:
*
Interesting the NSE20 share index is down 2.3% in 3 sessions since breaking 4,700. Any future upside momentum depends on reclaiming this mark...indeed previous support has now turned into resistance...only strong earnings season can save this market! lets see if the bankers can put on their cooking skills and deliver better q/q growth...my bet is earnings will be lifted by bonds...but there is danger that creditt uptake was still slow and net interest margins (NIM) got squeezed...also NPL's...South Sudan could slow KCB and Member while HF could be slowed by NPL's...it will be interesting to look at HF's interim NIM and Gross NPL/advances ratio...CFC should deliver stunning growth..Coop and DTB expected to mantain Q1 momentum although Coop could be slowed down by sluggish growth in NIR....NBK no comment!

Cream has been taken off the insurance sectors earnings due to the current correction...but Liberty...CIC...Britam could deliver impressive interim numbers.

Industrials...EABL to dissapoint...KenGen to deliver double digit growth...Mumias to dissapoint...Kenya Power outlook too negative...Bamburi & ARM could be lifted by regional subsidiaries...Q1 in Kenya was slow. Transcentury should deliver stunning numbers as some of those construction projects mature...also Chai Bora sold in H1 2013.

Media...NMG & SGL should do well due to elections.

Overall interesting earnings season coming up.


*pinned on the wall*

Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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Mainat
#3695 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 9:12:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Because we are a confused lot, foreigners now drive our market. Hence, if I expect, the Fed starts switching off the tap, I'd expect a correction. To around 4,300.
When you compare our economy with our rivals in EA, we are not raising our game collectively even our big corporates obviously. Imagine, its easier to buy land in Ug than Kenya...as a Kenyan
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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VituVingiSana
#3696 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 9:56:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,095
Location: Nairobi
SMH ... Buy value not what 'others' think.

As for the comments, in various forms, by various Wazuans regarding 'foreigners driving the market'... IT IS IRRELEVANT to folks buying value. It does not matter. One cannot rely on the 'kindness of strangers' to build wealth.

There are some counters which I would not care if they were 'suspended' as long as I had the ability to sell out if I am desperate. The market/NSE provides us with liquidity not always 'value' we want/perceive.

Look at firms like Centum, HFCK, Unga, Williamson, Kapchorua, Rea, perhaps even TransCentury [heavy emphasis on agriculturals] whose long-term value [meaning you will have very bumpy rides in the meantime] is great based on the current NAV and Management. I cannot stress Management enough. No point in having a firm with a high (perceived) NAV with crappy management e.g. Olympia.

Others I like include KenolKobil despite the past hitches. I would return to KQ at 8 if it includes a change in management & ownership structure with a cutback/slowdown in expansion then lock the shares away for 5 years!

In other words, if these firms above are SUSPENDED [and one has no need for cash] for 5 years, one will wake up in post-election 2018 with returns way above normal.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Kenyanhustler
#3697 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 10:00:37 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/7/2010
Posts: 20
Location: Nairobi
Mainat wrote:
Because we are a confused lot, foreigners now drive our market. Hence, if I expect, the Fed starts switching off the tap, I'd expect a correction. To around 4,300.
When you compare our economy with our rivals in EA, we are not raising our game collectively even our big corporates obviously. Imagine, its easier to buy land in Ug than Kenya...as a Kenyan



Wait a second.... Figurative speaking or real?. Can kenyans own land in ug... And how? Leasehold?
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mwekez@ji
#3698 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 11:20:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:

... Real slaughter this time next year...by that time...Yields on T-Bills could be in double digits!


Successful euro bond issue will keep T-Bill rates in check ... and 2014 gdp growth should hit >6% ... that should power nse bulls!
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the deal
#3699 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 11:30:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:

... Real slaughter this time next year...by that time...Yields on T-Bills could be in double digits!


Successful euro bond issue will keep T-Bill rates in check ... and 2014 gdp growth should hit >6% ... that should power nse bulls!

I wouldnt be too bullish if I were you..Eurobond $1bn wont be enough...cos it will be used to pay $600mn syndicated loan....fiscal deficit is at $4bn...so Tresuary will have to turn to domestic borrowing...an event which could drive up yields by next year...watch money market going forward!!!
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mwekez@ji
#3700 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2013 11:54:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:

... Real slaughter this time next year...by that time...Yields on T-Bills could be in double digits!


Successful euro bond issue will keep T-Bill rates in check ... and 2014 gdp growth should hit >6% ... that should power nse bulls!

I wouldnt be too bullish if I were you..Eurobond $1bn wont be enough...cos it will be used to pay $600mn syndicated loan....fiscal deficit is at $4bn...so Tresuary will have to turn to domestic borrowing...an event which could drive up yields by next year...watch money market going forward!!!


The amount to be raised via euro bond has not been fully finalized. the advisors should settle for circa $2.5B ... watching the markets closely
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