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Banking Sector Valuation and Recommendation - Year 2013
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation. Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market” "No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation. Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market” "No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle Time is money
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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mwekez@ji wrote:Very unfitting headings those. Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom. Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond. That is deliberate shakeout. I have yesterday's standard paper on the Treasury's Minister's interview. He pointed it out clearly that Jubilee will put focus on Monetary easing to stimulate the economic. “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation. Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market” "No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle Time is money Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Metasploit wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Very unfitting headings those. Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom. Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond. That is deliberate shakeout. I have yesterday's standard paper on the Treasury's Minister's interview. He pointed it out clearly that Jubilee will put focus on Monetary easing to stimulate the economic. cheers cc @the_deal
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation. Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market” "No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle Time is money Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more I'm not disputing the benefits of patience in a market but I've come to appreciate the opportunity presented by market timing.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation. Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market” "No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle Time is money Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more I'm not disputing the benefits of patience in a market but I've come to appreciate the opportunity presented by market timing. According to you, what is the appropriate time for CFC?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Bank assets grows to Sh2.5 trillion in May 2013
The banking sector grew with assets rising 16 per cent to Sh2.5 trillion last month, from Sh2.2 trillion recorded in May 2012. Central Bank records show the sector's deposits increased by 15 per cent from Sh1.6 trillion in May 2012 to Sh1.9 trillion at the end of May 2013.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation. Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market” "No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle Time is money Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more I'm not disputing the benefits of patience in a market but I've come to appreciate the opportunity presented by market timing. According to you, what is the appropriate time for CFC? Isn't KCB CURRENTLY more attractive than CFC?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Mukiri wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:symbols wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation. Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market” "No, I don’t believe in market timing. I’ve been around this business darn near a half-century, and I know I can’t do it successfully.– In fact, I don’t even know anyone who knows anyone who has ever successfully timed the market over the long term." Jack Bogle Time is money Time is money. &over time, those who dont time the market make much more I'm not disputing the benefits of patience in a market but I've come to appreciate the opportunity presented by market timing. According to you, what is the appropriate time for CFC? Isn't KCB CURRENTLY more attractive than CFC? In what way?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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symbols wrote:Mukiri wrote:Isn't KCB CURRENTLY more attractive than CFC? In what way?
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/14/2010 Posts: 521 Location: Nairobi
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At least things are heading North for CFC today
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly. Those H1 numbers better be good GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly. Those H1 numbers better be good Interestingly I&M its all systems go (with top notch customer service), but H1 earnings growth expectations >
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly. Those H1 numbers better be good Shoddy PR by member. That ATM breakdown is unacceptable without management giving an indication when to expect the issue to be sorted out...
http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/4ffk3cz/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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hisah wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly. Those H1 numbers better be good Shoddy PR by member. That ATM breakdown is unacceptable without management giving an indication when to expect the issue to be sorted out...
http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/4ffk3cz/-/index.html
It was not ATM's alone. Even withdrawal from the counter. Plus guys being told to fill multiple forms in order to deposit cash. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Has Equity Bank suffered a systems failure, for a whole week? Customers ni wengi sana ama? And JM usually brags that the system can absorb way more than the current 7m. People seething online, expectedly. Those H1 numbers better be good Interestingly I&M its all systems go (with top notch customer service), but H1 earnings growth expectations > 1Q 2013 was poor (well, below 1Q 2012) but 2Q is expected to be better. Mauritius made a Rs 100mn [KES 250mn] loss on derivatives/contracts. The EO [Sarit Shah] said these were Mark-To-Market. He did not explicitly say so but there may be some [not all] reversals. That said, the loss is a loss. Kenya: Slow. Slow. Slow. The bank had reduced lending [the deposits grew] in 1Q as customers reduced spending/investing/borrowing/trading. The EO said the pipeline going into 2Q was good & loans have picked up. I expect 3Q [not 2Q] to see more lending. Rwanda: They seem pleased. Tanzania: A poor 2012. Not sure of the (detailed) reasons. No idea how 1Q 2013 was seeing they do not break out the reasons. The next time to ask these questions is during the EGM coz no AGM this year for I&M Holdings shareholders. I expect an EGM for the following reasons 1) To get the shareholders to 1,000 the firm of Biashara Securities will be dissolved and shares distributed. 2) To change the year from July to December. This may not be necessary but it makes sense. All that said, I don't mind it dropping to 80-ish coz it is a good buy. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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Damn! What's happening with Member? Narok, ATMs, etc ... all are IT problems! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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VituVingiSana wrote:Damn! What's happening with Member? Narok, ATMs, etc ... all are IT problems! I hear salary sent to Memba on 27th last month wasn't accessible as at yesterday. I&M gives interim dividend for "year ending July 2013". I now get why it's not final for the year! The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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jerry wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Damn! What's happening with Member? Narok, ATMs, etc ... all are IT problems! I hear salary sent to Memba on 27th last month wasn't accessible as at yesterday. I&M gives interim dividend for "year ending July 2013". I now get why it's not final for the year! Damn! That is crazy. Imagine you can't pay your Landlord, stima, etc! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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