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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Cde Monomotapa
#3641 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 7:26:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
#TBONDAUCTION Yields on 5-Yr TBond falls to 11.305% from 12.892% at a sale on April24; #CBK accepts KES12.91B out of bids of KES18.035B

#TBONDAUCTION Yields on 10-Yr TBond falls to 12.371% from 13.72% at a sale on March20; #CBK accepts KES12.135B out of bids of KES14.082B

#TBILLAUCTION Yields on 182-Day TBills falls to 5.549% from 5.642% at a sale last week; #CBK accepts all KES375M

ECB MERSCH: ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY POLICY TO CONTINUE, NO EXIT FROM LIQUIDITY MEASURES IN NEAR TERM - MNI

??
Mukiri
#3642 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 7:32:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
hisah wrote:
The gap filling between 4600 & 4700 is almost complete. If the index can dip towards 4580 even better for support to kick in on the discounts.

Coop flushed down to 14.50. Was very tempted to pick some yesterday but that would be too many banks in my portfolio.

CFCI nosedive was expected. l warned about it back in April. It vaulted too fast from 7 to 11 and I jumped out at 11.40 but it kept stretching to crazy highs towards 14. Getting in above 10 the party was too high...

Some wondered why I sold out. Hope they have learned never to get roped in by euphoria. During euphoria sell the mad rallies or lighten your holdings. Always watch those gap ups when mad rallies check in. Gaps are bad for bull rally support.

On the flip side gap downs are targets for rebounds in strong bear markets until the bear market trend completes.

As for kk & kq the bulls vs bear fight continues. Bears favoured for now.

Kenya RE is now forcing me to be torn between britam and it... Dilemma.

@aguy - time for cash pile to come in.

My broker called me asking 'What do we buy?' I told him 'Ngoja kidogo.. I'll call youd'oh! ' KCB?

Proverbs 19:21
symbols
#3643 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 7:50:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
guru267 wrote:
The Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and the PBOC have to come out in full force to calm markets down.

Otherwise.... Sad


Apart from a sell off,what do you see as part of the otherwise?
mlennyma
#3644 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 7:59:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,182
Location: nairobi
Only if my money in ak can come,am surprised if the discounts will last.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#3645 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 8:39:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
The gap filling between 4600 & 4700 is almost complete. If the index can dip towards 4580 even better for support to kick in on the discounts.

Coop flushed down to 14.50. Was very tempted to pick some yesterday but that would be too many banks in my portfolio.

CFCI nosedive was expected. l warned about it back in April. It vaulted too fast from 7 to 11 and I jumped out at 11.40 but it kept stretching to crazy highs towards 14. Getting in above 10 the party was too high...

Some wondered why I sold out. Hope they have learned never to get roped in by euphoria. During euphoria sell the mad rallies or lighten your holdings. Always watch those gap ups when mad rallies check in. Gaps are bad for bull rally support.

On the flip side gap downs are targets for rebounds in strong bear markets until the bear market trend completes.

As for kk & kq the bulls vs bear fight continues. Bears favoured for now.

Kenya RE is now forcing me to be torn between britam and it... Dilemma.

@aguy - time for cash pile to come in.


as much as u are a trader, u are fundie.
when i sold my cfci and watched it go to 14, it didn't feel very wise, but i knew it was fairly valued. and couldnt buy or hold more at that level. seen sub 10 print today, however shocking was not unexpected.

as for ken re vs britam. which one is undervalued?
but i see britam allure coz of not being gava heavy and a corporate darling. infact today a 14.30 order for ken re got filled. yay!

next im eyeing cfc holdings at 60.00, today 62.50 printed. i wanted to buy last month but when i saw the appetite to 70.00 i let it fly. now its back.

im also seeing scope of IM at 80.00, if this bleeding continues.

I've used cash pile well, but more needed to buy ze sweet bargains....
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3646 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 8:55:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
smile

You are highly encouraged to consider Buying.

Ps 125:6 Those who sow in tears shall reap in joyThink
Im done with the painful planting,now sitting back awaiting the sweet harvestsmile
@SufficientlyP
Cde Monomotapa
#3647 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 9:04:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
smile

You are highly encouraged to consider Buying.

Ps 125:6 Those who sow in tears shall reap in joyThink
Im done with the painful planting,now sitting back awaiting the sweet harvestsmile

smile smile
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3648 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 9:04:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@aguy,Ken Re even had a 13.60 order filled!
As for Britam, Ken Re play,i chose Britam coz of its Equity,HF association although Ken Re has favorable PB,PE ratios than the former!
@SufficientlyP
Aguytrying
#3649 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 9:11:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
@aguy,Ken Re even had a 13.60 order filled!
As for Britam, Ken Re play,i chose Britam coz of its Equity,HF association although Ken Re has favorable PB,PE ratios than the former!


I've always found britam over valued, whats the PB by the way. kenre has that gava cloud hanging so ive bought it half heartedly, fair value im out.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
the deal
#3650 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 9:57:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I think I will only Buy when the market reclaims the key 4,700 to avoid catching a falling knife...for now I want it to bounce and attack 4700...support always turn into resistance...for trades...i like trading break outs...that way i dont catch...dead cat bounces ..btwn I was at the Liberty AGM...shareholders were castigating mngmnt for taking profits on equities and buying bonds...bonds have rallied in Q2 2013...well with the way things are going...Liberty is on course to report stellar earnings...only stock im tracking in the current correction!
maka
#3651 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 11:24:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
symbols wrote:
guru267 wrote:
The Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and the PBOC have to come out in full force to calm markets down.

Otherwise.... Sad


Apart from a sell off,what do you see as part of the otherwise?

Another crash I read it somewhere early this year...

http://www.moneynews.com...50265?PROMO_CODE=FE8A-1

Ron Baron thinks otherwise...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100834020
possunt quia posse videntur
symbols
#3652 Posted : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 11:39:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
maka wrote:
symbols wrote:
guru267 wrote:
The Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and the PBOC have to come out in full force to calm markets down.

Otherwise.... Sad


Apart from a sell off,what do you see as part of the otherwise?

Another crash I read it somewhere early this year...

http://www.moneynews.com...50265?PROMO_CODE=FE8A-1

Ron Baron thinks otherwise...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100834020


Crash is a taboo word in the presence of central bankersLaughing out loudly
Cde Monomotapa
#3653 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 12:38:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Wazua needs a WVIX - Volatility Index & fear gauge.

Raiya ingine hapa...smh.
hisah
#3654 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 1:55:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Wazua needs a WVIX - Volatility Index & fear gauge.

Raiya ingine hapa...smh.

Great idea to measure that emotion volatility cocktail to pinpoint capitulation bottoms as well as euphoria climax. Then trade it for profit as well...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#3655 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 3:14:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Stanchart cuts lending rates - www.nation.co.ke/busines...38/-/wp2un9/-/index.html

Was waiting to see this signal from the foreign banks in KE i.e. foreign banks initiating the rate slash post elections after gauging econ risks.

The rate cut is called 'the grande sale'... Loan hawking officially begins when NSE is correcting...

Waiting for the next market meltup powered by cheap loans and the tbill escapists...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#3656 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 6:05:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
looks like global markets have calmer down now that US q1 gdp is worse than expected!

we may have bottomed out at 4,500 - 3,600 on the NSE 20...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Cde Monomotapa
#3657 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 8:40:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Wazua needs a WVIX - Volatility Index & fear gauge.

Raiya ingine hapa...smh.

Great idea to measure that emotion volatility cocktail to pinpoint capitulation bottoms as well as euphoria climax. Then trade it for profit as well...

Precisely smile
mwekez@ji
#3658 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 8:44:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Wazua needs a WVIX - Volatility Index & fear gauge.

Raiya ingine hapa...smh.

Great idea to measure that emotion volatility cocktail to pinpoint capitulation bottoms as well as euphoria climax. Then trade it for profit as well...

Precisely smile

smile
Cde Monomotapa
#3659 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 8:44:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Stanchart cuts lending rates - www.nation.co.ke/busines...38/-/wp2un9/-/index.html

Was waiting to see this signal from the foreign banks in KE i.e. foreign banks initiating the rate slash post elections after gauging econ risks.

The rate cut is called 'the grande sale'... Loan hawking officially begins when NSE is correcting...

Waiting for the next market meltup powered by cheap loans and the tbill escapists...

A good & a bad thing is the slow transmission of monetary policy to mkt. Enjoy the leisure of positioning time before we get much sophisticated ;-) <now the cat's out the bag though, twende kazi!>
mwekez@ji
#3660 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2013 10:24:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
#TBONDAUCTION Yields on 5-Yr TBond falls to 11.305% from 12.892% at a sale on April24; #CBK accepts KES12.91B out of bids of KES18.035B

#TBONDAUCTION Yields on 10-Yr TBond falls to 12.371% from 13.72% at a sale on March20; #CBK accepts KES12.135B out of bids of KES14.082B

#TBILLAUCTION Yields on 182-Day TBills falls to 5.549% from 5.642% at a sale last week; #CBK accepts all KES375M

ECB MERSCH: ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY POLICY TO CONTINUE, NO EXIT FROM LIQUIDITY MEASURES IN NEAR TERM - MNI

??


#CASE FOR THE BULLS
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