Aguytrying wrote:i want a piece of this action, listing price not even known
It's a Listing By Introduction so there is no 'listing price' but here are my thoughts:
1) 2012 was weak for Kenya (the largest bank in the portfolio) but 2013 is looking better for Kenya [post-elections]
2) BCR [#2 or #3 bank] was bought in 2012 so the process to integrate continues in 2013. This also means increased Kenya-Rwanda as well as Tanzania-Rwanda business staying within the group.
3) The CEO said they are looking at acquiring a Uganda bank OR starting a new operation. I think this will remain a smallish operation mainly to capture cross-border trade of its existing customers between Kenya-Uganda as well as Rwanda-Uganda.
4) Mauritius had some funky losses in 1Q 2013. I have a feeling that ship has been tightened up for a rebound in 2Q 2013. Not sure if the losses are all cash or accounting mark-downs.
5) 2012 & 2013 has seen the Kenya branches & scope increased from a "Nairobi" bank to a country-wide bank. Not as wide as one would like but expansion into Kisii, Nakuru, Eldoret, Nyeri, etc is happening slow but sure.
IFC may end up as a shareholder which gives I&M access to IFC credit lines which allow it to expand its reach to more customers. It's client base is growing larger as are the clients.
Pricing: It may seem pricier than some banks on a PER basis at the moment but that is coming off a weak 2012 so the growth in 2013 may be stronger. I am looking at 120-ish though we know the market is 'weak' at the moment.
Finally, I think the bank may be taken over in the near future. Why? It has the 'foreign' shareholders like Proparco, DEG & possibly IFC who have the heft to market it to global giants who want in on Kenya (& EAC) as a 'corporate bank' not a mass-market bank. Having a foothold in Kenya via I&M Bank can give banks like HSBC, etc the ability to finance local deals including infrastructure.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett