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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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http://www.centralbank.g...dex.php/auction-results
CBK wrote:This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs. 2 Billion. The total number of bids received was 158 amounting to Kshs 2.62 Billion, representing a subscription of 131%. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs. 2.62 Billion. The market weighted average rate was 5.110%, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 5.110% down from 5.424% in the previous auction. 91 day rate falls to 5.11%. NSE20 continues falling this week as well as USD/KES down to 85.80. This divergence cannot last for too long. The inverse correlation will return pronto. Either equities rally or money markets rally... If USDKES races towards 86.50 - 87.00 level the NSE20 will be sagging below 4600... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:http://www.centralbank.go.ke/index.php/auction-results CBK wrote:This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs. 2 Billion. The total number of bids received was 158 amounting to Kshs 2.62 Billion, representing a subscription of 131%. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs. 2.62 Billion. The market weighted average rate was 5.110%, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 5.110% down from 5.424% in the previous auction. 91 day rate falls to 5.11%. NSE20 continues falling this week as well as USD/KES down to 85.80. This divergence cannot last for too long. The inverse correlation will return pronto. Either equities rally or money markets rally... If USDKES races towards 86.50 - 87.00 level the NSE20 will be sagging below 4600... As long as LB crude is below 105,the shilling is safe. A break out above this levels to post 110 will leave the shilling exposed and the slide in interest rates will make an about turn as imported inflation comes calling! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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mwekez@ji wrote:ARM chief buys new shares after Sh5.7bn heritage  The managing director of ARM Cement Pradeep Paunrana has for the first time bought additional shares in the Nairobi bourse-listed firm since he inherited an 18 per cent stake in 2011. Filings with the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) show that Paunrana’s stake increased to 18.2 per cent in March, pushing the worth of his direct stake to Sh5.81 billion. He bought nearly half a million shares currently worth Sh29.5 million within the three months to March. Mr Paunrana’s move is seen as a vote of confidence in the cement firm whose share at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has gained 62 per cent over the past year to stand at Sh64.50. http://www.businessdailyafrica....88/-/dqj8kw/-/index.html This market has its owners! This is why the price had stalled?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Mukiri wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:ARM chief buys new shares after Sh5.7bn heritage The managing director of ARM Cement Pradeep Paunrana has for the first time bought additional shares in the Nairobi bourse-listed firm since he inherited an 18 per cent stake in 2011. Filings with the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) show that Paunrana’s stake increased to 18.2 per cent in March, pushing the worth of his direct stake to Sh5.81 billion. He bought nearly half a million shares currently worth Sh29.5 million within the three months to March. Mr Paunrana’s move is seen as a vote of confidence in the cement firm whose share at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has gained 62 per cent over the past year to stand at Sh64.50. http://www.businessdailyafrica....88/-/dqj8kw/-/index.html This market has its owners! This is why the price had stalled? Watch what happened in the three months to march when he was buying. Price shot from KES.44 to KES.69 (57% up) and on extraordinarily high volumes. The RSI is very stretched but they care less since they know what we dont ... but then again, gaps have to be filled cc@hisah 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:Mukiri wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:ARM chief buys new shares after Sh5.7bn heritage The managing director of ARM Cement Pradeep Paunrana has for the first time bought additional shares in the Nairobi bourse-listed firm since he inherited an 18 per cent stake in 2011. Filings with the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) show that Paunrana’s stake increased to 18.2 per cent in March, pushing the worth of his direct stake to Sh5.81 billion. He bought nearly half a million shares currently worth Sh29.5 million within the three months to March. Mr Paunrana’s move is seen as a vote of confidence in the cement firm whose share at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has gained 62 per cent over the past year to stand at Sh64.50. http://www.businessdailyafrica....88/-/dqj8kw/-/index.html This market has its owners! This is why the price had stalled? Watch what happened in the three months to march when he was buying. Price shot from KES.44 to KES.69 (57% up) and on extraordinarily high volumes. The RSI is very stretched but they care less since they know what we dont ... but then again, gaps have to be filled cc@hisah Interesting insider buy pressure. The recent loan had an equity conversion price of 264 which post split = 52.80. The avg insider bid is around 50 - 60 levels. Solid support at those levels i.e 50 - 60s.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706. Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down. Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Btw my major worry at the moment is the global bonds price dip I.e. yield spike. If interest rates are forced to spike disorderly globally, a worse selloff than GFC will present itself to shock of everyone... Keep an eye on that esp Jap. In china rates are spiking (interbank) and a liquidity crunch is showing up. Commodities nosedive since April are warning what will happen to equities if things fall apart. CBs will have a hard time with their rates already too low since GFC. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706.
Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down.
Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in... ... the in-bold-above + economic growth in KE + QE in KE + ...., presents a good case for the bulls in KE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706.
Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down.
Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in... ... the in-bold-above + economic growth in KE + QE in KE + ...., presents a good case for the bulls in KE Precisely. Domestics look up, Externals look down. Go to sleep with one eye open 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706.
Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down.
Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in... ... the in-bold-above + economic growth in KE + QE in KE + ...., presents a good case for the bulls in KE Precisely. Domestics look up, Externals look down. Go to sleep with one eye open 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,182 Location: nairobi
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The truth is that there will come a bull in the nse which will shock the world,i dont know when but i pray to be inside the party. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Then as from next month we prep. for local & global earnings ~ again sleep with one eye open 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706.
Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down.
Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in... ... the in-bold-above + economic growth in KE + QE in KE + ...., presents a good case for the bulls in KE Precisely. Domestics look up, Externals look down. Go to sleep with one eye open #WORD
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mlennyma wrote:The truth is that there will come a bull in the nse which will shock the world,i dont know when but i pray to be inside the party.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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hisah wrote:Btw my major worry at the moment is the global bonds price dip I.e. yield spike. If interest rates are forced to spike disorderly globally, a worse selloff than GFC will present itself to shock of everyone... Keep an eye on that esp Jap. In china rates are spiking (interbank) and a liquidity crunch is showing up. Commodities nosedive since April are warning what will happen to equities if things fall apart. CBs will have a hard time with their rates already too low since GFC. There already is a lot of volatility and uncertainty in the markets.CBs should try handle the events without paralyzing investors so much.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Btw Chief @hisah are you still in on the peaceful-polls premiums Insurance play? I figure the most no-brainer position is the re-insurer... KenyaRe.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Btw Chief @hisah are you still in on the peaceful-polls premiums Insurance play? I figure the most no-brainer position is the re-insurer... KenyaRe. Yes, but sold CFCI when I started noticing price divergence vs index strength. I still expect insurance to outperform based on that premium. Liking the current discounts across board. Kenya RE is indeed tempting. Waiting to see how NSE20 closes June - already in reversal. I think more discounts will be served into July.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Btw Chief @hisah are you still in on the peaceful-polls premiums Insurance play? I figure the most no-brainer position is the re-insurer... KenyaRe. Yes, but sold CFCI when I started noticing price divergence vs index strength. I still expect insurance to outperform based on that premium. Liking the current discounts across board. Kenya RE is indeed tempting. Waiting to see how NSE20 closes June - already in reversal. I think more discounts will be served into July. Ok & interesting playing the trend around the same counters . The current spreads on CFCI are like it were at NBK before it firmed up. Just got to know when to place 'em.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Btw Chief @hisah are you still in on the peaceful-polls premiums Insurance play? I figure the most no-brainer position is the re-insurer... KenyaRe. Mboss Kenya re closed Friday at a P/E of 3.7... Completely ridiculous! #GetInWhileYouCan.. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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guru267 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Btw Chief @hisah are you still in on the peaceful-polls premiums Insurance play? I figure the most no-brainer position is the re-insurer... KenyaRe. Mboss Kenya re closed Friday at a P/E of 3.7... Completely ridiculous! #GetInWhileYouCan.. K..
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