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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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hisah
#3561 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 4:00:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
http://www.centralbank.g...dex.php/auction-results
CBK wrote:
This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs. 2 Billion. The total number of bids received was 158 amounting to Kshs 2.62 Billion, representing a subscription of 131%. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs. 2.62 Billion. The market weighted average rate was 5.110%, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 5.110% down from 5.424% in the previous auction.


91 day rate falls to 5.11%. NSE20 continues falling this week as well as USD/KES down to 85.80. This divergence cannot last for too long. The inverse correlation will return pronto. Either equities rally or money markets rally... If USDKES races towards 86.50 - 87.00 level the NSE20 will be sagging below 4600...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3562 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 8:02:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
http://www.centralbank.go.ke/index.php/auction-results
CBK wrote:
This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs. 2 Billion. The total number of bids received was 158 amounting to Kshs 2.62 Billion, representing a subscription of 131%. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs. 2.62 Billion. The market weighted average rate was 5.110%, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 5.110% down from 5.424% in the previous auction.


91 day rate falls to 5.11%. NSE20 continues falling this week as well as USD/KES down to 85.80. This divergence cannot last for too long. The inverse correlation will return pronto. Either equities rally or money markets rally... If USDKES races towards 86.50 - 87.00 level the NSE20 will be sagging below 4600...

As long as LB crude is below 105,the shilling is safe. A break out above this levels to post 110 will leave the shilling exposed and the slide in interest rates will make an about turn as imported inflation comes calling!
@SufficientlyP
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Mukiri
#3563 Posted : Friday, June 21, 2013 9:34:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
mwekez@ji wrote:
ARM chief buys new shares after Sh5.7bn heritage



The managing director of ARM Cement Pradeep Paunrana has for the first time bought additional shares in the Nairobi bourse-listed firm since he inherited an 18 per cent stake in 2011.

Filings with the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) show that Paunrana’s stake increased to 18.2 per cent in March, pushing the worth of his direct stake to Sh5.81 billion. He bought nearly half a million shares currently worth Sh29.5 million within the three months to March.

Mr Paunrana’s move is seen as a vote of confidence in the cement firm whose share at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has gained 62 per cent over the past year to stand at Sh64.50.

http://www.businessdailyafrica....88/-/dqj8kw/-/index.html

This market has its owners! This is why the price had stalled?

Proverbs 19:21
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mwekez@ji
#3564 Posted : Saturday, June 22, 2013 9:48:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Mukiri wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
ARM chief buys new shares after Sh5.7bn heritage



The managing director of ARM Cement Pradeep Paunrana has for the first time bought additional shares in the Nairobi bourse-listed firm since he inherited an 18 per cent stake in 2011.

Filings with the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) show that Paunrana’s stake increased to 18.2 per cent in March, pushing the worth of his direct stake to Sh5.81 billion. He bought nearly half a million shares currently worth Sh29.5 million within the three months to March.

Mr Paunrana’s move is seen as a vote of confidence in the cement firm whose share at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has gained 62 per cent over the past year to stand at Sh64.50.

http://www.businessdailyafrica....88/-/dqj8kw/-/index.html

This market has its owners! This is why the price had stalled?


Watch what happened in the three months to march when he was buying. Price shot from KES.44 to KES.69 (57% up) and on extraordinarily high volumes. The RSI is very stretched but they care less since they know what we dont ... but then again, gaps have to be filled cc@hisah
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, June 22, 2013 9:56 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#3565 Posted : Saturday, June 22, 2013 10:35:30 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
ARM chief buys new shares after Sh5.7bn heritage



The managing director of ARM Cement Pradeep Paunrana has for the first time bought additional shares in the Nairobi bourse-listed firm since he inherited an 18 per cent stake in 2011.

Filings with the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) show that Paunrana’s stake increased to 18.2 per cent in March, pushing the worth of his direct stake to Sh5.81 billion. He bought nearly half a million shares currently worth Sh29.5 million within the three months to March.

Mr Paunrana’s move is seen as a vote of confidence in the cement firm whose share at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has gained 62 per cent over the past year to stand at Sh64.50.

http://www.businessdailyafrica....88/-/dqj8kw/-/index.html

This market has its owners! This is why the price had stalled?


Watch what happened in the three months to march when he was buying. Price shot from KES.44 to KES.69 (57% up) and on extraordinarily high volumes. The RSI is very stretched but they care less since they know what we dont ... but then again, gaps have to be filled cc@hisah


Interesting insider buy pressure. The recent loan had an equity conversion price of 264 which post split = 52.80. The avg insider bid is around 50 - 60 levels. Solid support at those levels i.e 50 - 60s.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, June 22, 2013 10:36 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#3566 Posted : Saturday, June 22, 2013 10:46:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706.

Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down.

Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#3567 Posted : Saturday, June 22, 2013 11:05:40 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Btw my major worry at the moment is the global bonds price dip I.e. yield spike. If interest rates are forced to spike disorderly globally, a worse selloff than GFC will present itself to shock of everyone... Keep an eye on that esp Jap. In china rates are spiking (interbank) and a liquidity crunch is showing up. Commodities nosedive since April are warning what will happen to equities if things fall apart. CBs will have a hard time with their rates already too low since GFC.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#3568 Posted : Saturday, June 22, 2013 11:33:22 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706.

Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down.

Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in...


... the in-bold-above + economic growth in KE + QE in KE + ...., presents a good case for the bulls in KE
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Cde Monomotapa
#3569 Posted : Saturday, June 22, 2013 11:39:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706.

Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down.

Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in...


... the in-bold-above + economic growth in KE + QE in KE + ...., presents a good case for the bulls in KE

Precisely. Domestics look up, Externals look down. Go to sleep with one eye open smile
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symbols
#3570 Posted : Saturday, June 22, 2013 11:43:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE has not published the week's activity since yesterday... Though on the site the index close was posted at 4706.

Anyway aside the unexplained delay, 4700 is likely to break down.

Fat discounts won't last for long esp if the oil club start making moves which they have (funds & office opening as global insurance firms follows them) and the news start flying in...


... the in-bold-above + economic growth in KE + QE in KE + ...., presents a good case for the bulls in KE

Precisely. Domestics look up, Externals look down. Go to sleep with one eye open smile

Laughing out loudly
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