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the deal
#11 Posted : Tuesday, June 18, 2013 6:48:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Well a bear market is a summation of market corrections.
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kizee1
#12 Posted : Tuesday, June 18, 2013 11:59:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
[quote=guru267]Pretty simple process!

1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..

Pretty simple!

the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?

we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit
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symbols
#13 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 12:31:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
kizee1 wrote:
[quote=guru267]Pretty simple process!

1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..

Pretty simple!

the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?

we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit


What do you see as the cause?
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, June 19, 2013 12:33 AM | Reason: Not specified
kizee1
#14 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 1:00:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
symbols wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
[quote=guru267]Pretty simple process!

1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..

Pretty simple!

the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?

we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit


What do you see as the cause?


proposal to reintroduce CGT was the tipping point, the uncertainity really has caused a wait and see attitude amongst offshore investors
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mwekez@ji
#15 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 1:08:02 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
kizee1 wrote:
symbols wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Pretty simple process!

1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..

Pretty simple!

the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?

we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit


What do you see as the cause?


proposal to reintroduce CGT was the tipping point, the uncertainity really has caused a wait and see attitude amongst offshore investors


And what do you say of rest subsaharan indices in the red?
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mwekez@ji
#16 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 1:22:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today, concern is that the Fed Chairman, Prof. Ben Bernanke, will reduce its asset purchase program. If the Fed takes this stance, it is likely to impair stock market values around the world as investment in recent days has been driven by liquidity from the main central banks which include the Federal Reserve of the US, The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. If the Fed stopped its monetary policy of quantitative easing, markets worldwide are likely to correct.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/new...set-purchase_901001.html
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mwekez@ji
#17 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 1:45:41 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
FTSE NSE indices drop after one year of consistent gains >>> http://www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/113is1b/-/index.html
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kizee1
#18 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 5:36:03 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
so CgT has no impact whatsoever on our market, yet Feds QE decisions do? SMH!
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guru267
#19 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 6:01:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Pretty simple process!

1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..

Pretty simple!


the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?

we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit


@kizee if you can call any of my points above erroneous then your knowledge in economics is pretty wanting! I can't really help with that one Sad

And if you were slightly more exposed you would see other emerging stock markets are also on the decline! Did they also introduce CGT?? smile

How can anyone talk about investors running away from Capital gains tax?? Maybe only Wanjiku would sell for such a reason! Any sophisticated investor knows there is nowhere to run to so they might as well stay put!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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murchr
#20 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 6:04:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
kizee1 wrote:
so CgT has no impact whatsoever on our market, yet Feds QE decisions do? SMH!


Investors are well aware that CGT doesnt exist at the moment and its likely not to exist..
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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