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Market Correction!
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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Is the market correction coming way too soon? Or what are the factors in play..... here is a couple of examples KCB 36 bob all the way from 42 EQT 31 after hitting 35.75 SAF 6.70 down from 7.30 African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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No,its not a correction;its uncertainity due to the capital gains tax.look at the huge supply in counters like ken re currently at 427500 vs the lower demand at 170,200....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Pretty simple process! 1. US economy improves 2. US Central Bank stops pumping money 3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen 4. Carry trade officially dies 5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE! 6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE.. Pretty simple! No one should listen to that capital gains mambo jambo! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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Hail the correction or whatever you want to call it.  We could hardly spot any bargains. A further 10 - 15% fall is welcome. Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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guru267 wrote:Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
No one should listen to that capital gains mambo jambo! If the fund managers are exiting explain the huge demand in counters like KCB, Safaricom despite the depressed prices?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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mibbz wrote:guru267 wrote:Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
No one should listen to that capital gains mambo jambo! If the fund managers are exiting explain the huge demand in counters like KCB, Safaricom despite the depressed prices? And yet the prices still fall... This means there are still NET sellers on those counters! And not every foreign investor is a carry trade investor... Some are with us for the long term!  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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guru267 wrote:mibbz wrote:guru267 wrote:Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
No one should listen to that capital gains mambo jambo! If the fund managers are exiting explain the huge demand in counters like KCB, Safaricom despite the depressed prices? And yet the prices still fall... This means there are still NET sellers on those counters! And not every foreign investor is a carry trade investor... Some are with us for the long term! I agree with guru.All eyes on helicopter Ben.Counters like KCB and Scom are also liquid.Easy entry easy exit but are also a means to manipulate the market.If they do well and inspire investor confidence in the NSE,it opens up an opportunity for another round of madness or rope in the 'pigs' for a slaughter if things go south.The CMA report on Q2 will be enlightening.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
No one should listen to that capital gains mambo jambo! You should be charged with dissemination... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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maka wrote:guru267 wrote:Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
No one should listen to that capital gains mambo jambo! You should be charged with dissemination...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,297
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After DVDDs, and the gains(Rally) experienced at year end of most of the stocks we always see a correction as there are net sellers and low demand read KCB, Equity,Britam, K-RE, Coop etc. Those which had no DVDDs but rallied are sliding back to their cocoon prices read sameer, Kenol, Centum etc.Those trading cum DvDDS but gone lower shows lower demand as they have already touched their highs but still people can make money from them read Safcom, Scangroup. The idea is to bring the price down and wait for half year performance from July to September announcements. From Nov. we will the rally call depending on speculation and half year performance.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Well a bear market is a summation of market corrections.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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[quote=guru267]Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?
we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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kizee1 wrote:[quote=guru267]Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?
we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit What do you see as the cause?
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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symbols wrote:kizee1 wrote:[quote=guru267]Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier?
we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit What do you see as the cause? proposal to reintroduce CGT was the tipping point, the uncertainity really has caused a wait and see attitude amongst offshore investors
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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kizee1 wrote:symbols wrote:kizee1 wrote:guru267 wrote:Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple!
the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier? we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit What do you see as the cause? proposal to reintroduce CGT was the tipping point, the uncertainity really has caused a wait and see attitude amongst offshore investors And what do you say of rest subsaharan indices in the red?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today, concern is that the Fed Chairman, Prof. Ben Bernanke, will reduce its asset purchase program. If the Fed takes this stance, it is likely to impair stock market values around the world as investment in recent days has been driven by liquidity from the main central banks which include the Federal Reserve of the US, The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. If the Fed stopped its monetary policy of quantitative easing, markets worldwide are likely to correct. http://www.moneycontrol.com/new...set-purchase_901001.html
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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FTSE NSE indices drop after one year of consistent gains >>> http://www.businessdailyafrica....4/-/113is1b/-/index.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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so CgT has no impact whatsoever on our market, yet Feds QE decisions do? SMH!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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kizee1 wrote:guru267 wrote:Pretty simple process!
1. US economy improves
2. US Central Bank stops pumping money
3. interest rates rise and US dollar strengthen
4. Carry trade officially dies
5. US fund managers exit emerging and frontier markets including NSE!
6. Emerging and frontier markets sell off including NSE..
Pretty simple! the sell off was too rapid, it cannot be precipitated by the factors you have listed some of which are actually erroneous for instance what does a carry trade have to do with equities? US economy recovers? you must be kidding me! Fed stops monetizing and you speak of a recovery??? where are US rates vis a vis frontier? we would need an event such as a lehmans collapse to see such a rapid exit @kizee if you can call any of my points above erroneous then your knowledge in economics is pretty wanting! I can't really help with that one  And if you were slightly more exposed you would see other emerging stock markets are also on the decline! Did they also introduce CGT?? How can anyone talk about investors running away from Capital gains tax?? Maybe only Wanjiku would sell for such a reason! Any sophisticated investor knows there is nowhere to run to so they might as well stay put!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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kizee1 wrote:so CgT has no impact whatsoever on our market, yet Feds QE decisions do? SMH! Investors are well aware that CGT doesnt exist at the moment and its likely not to exist.. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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