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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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the deal
#3461 Posted : Thursday, June 13, 2013 8:55:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
streetwise wrote:
The whole world is on a selling spree..where are they taking the money. There may be a n opportunity some where

The money is going into US treasuries..investors are betting on a strong US recovery...the one which can withstand high interest rates.
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hisah
#3462 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 7:25:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 closed below 4860 (@4838) as expected after breaking lower from the triangle. Selling pressure will persist for a while.

Now waiting for KQ to report today. Ugly figures with the selling mood will knock it down badly. Those in this bus sit tight.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#3463 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 8:55:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closed below 4860 (@4838) as expected after breaking lower from the triangle. Selling pressure will persist for a while.

Now waiting for KQ to report today. Ugly figures with the selling mood will knock it down badly. Those in this bus sit tight.


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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guru267
#3464 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 9:19:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
NSE20 closed below 4860 (@4838) as expected after breaking lower from the triangle. Selling pressure will persist for a while.

Now waiting for KQ to report today. Ugly figures with the selling mood will knock it down badly. Those in this bus sit tight.




6 shillings wiped off the book value per share! Sad

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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maka
#3465 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 10:03:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
streetwise wrote:
The whole world is on a selling spree..where are they taking the money. There may be a n opportunity some where

The money is going into US treasuries..investors are betting on a strong US recovery...the one which can withstand high interest rates.

Its more than that...
possunt quia posse videntur
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kazee
#3466 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 10:13:42 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2006
Posts: 131
maka wrote:
the deal wrote:
streetwise wrote:
The whole world is on a selling spree..where are they taking the money. There may be a n opportunity some where

The money is going into US treasuries..investors are betting on a strong US recovery...the one which can withstand high interest rates.

Its more than that...


Yesterday the shilling lost as many foreign investors sold their NSE holdings and hence were converting to USD. This doesn't sound good for foreign dominated counters like EABL, mpesa bank, member and roar
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3467 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 10:25:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Supply at mpesa corner is at 6.90 ATM.
Bei ya jioni reloadedsmile
@SufficientlyP
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mwekez@ji
#3468 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 10:30:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
kazee wrote:


Yesterday the shilling lost as many foreign investors sold their NSE holdings and hence were converting to USD.


@kazee wacha uongo. Yesterday the shilling lost for other reasons but not NSE >>> NSE recorded net foreign inflow
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3469 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 10:34:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
6.70 ATM
#SomeoneSaveMpesa
#ifonlysmile
@SufficientlyP
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kazee
#3470 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 10:35:04 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2006
Posts: 131
mwekez@ji wrote:
kazee wrote:


Yesterday the shilling lost as many foreign investors sold their NSE holdings and hence were converting to USD.


@kazee wacha uongo. Yesterday the shilling lost for other reasons but not NSE >>> NSE recorded net foreign inflow


@mwekezaji, don't shoot the messenger. See link below

Business daily link

Dealers said there was high demand for dollars by foreign investors who were seeking to convert their shilling earnings from the stock market.

“The Kenya shilling weakened on Wednesday, weighed down by foreign investors buying dollars as they booked gains from this year’s stock rally, pushing the main NSE share index lower,” said ABC in its update.
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mwekez@ji
#3471 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 10:39:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
kazee wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
kazee wrote:


Yesterday the shilling lost as many foreign investors sold their NSE holdings and hence were converting to USD.


@kazee wacha uongo. Yesterday the shilling lost for other reasons but not NSE >>> NSE recorded net foreign inflow


@mwekezaji, don't shoot the messenger. See link below

Business daily link

Dealers said there was high demand for dollars by foreign investors who were seeking to convert their shilling earnings from the stock market.

“The Kenya shilling weakened on Wednesday, weighed down by foreign investors buying dollars as they booked gains from this year’s stock rally, pushing the main NSE share index lower,” said ABC in its update.


Haya ;-) Next time jitambulishe mapema lest you will find your shot dead instead of the master
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hisah
#3472 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 11:08:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Supply at mpesa corner is at 6.90 ATM.
Bei ya jioni reloadedsmile

More discounts needed on quality stocks. Mpesa bank sliding should make the index sag even more towards 4600. That gap that was not filled must get filled this time so that the reload will offer solid support.
#IDislikeGaps
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#3473 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 11:47:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Currently FTSE NSE25 index is down 5.4% for the week. Sharp reversal...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#3474 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 11:53:47 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
This is how MSCI KE index looks like to date...




Keep an eye on this...

Targets 1400 then 1350.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3475 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 12:01:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
This is how MSCI KE index looks like to date...




Keep an eye on this...

Targets 1400 then 1350.

This points to increased volatility in the coming days imho
@SufficientlyP
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kazee
#3476 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 12:40:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2006
Posts: 131
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Supply at mpesa corner is at 6.90 ATM.
Bei ya jioni reloadedsmile

More discounts needed on quality stocks. Mpesa bank sliding should make the index sag even more towards 4600. That gap that was not filled must get filled this time so that the reload will offer solid support.
#IDislikeGaps


WTF! EABL is a bloodbath. 425 to 327 in less than a month. I see more contributions in the thread "My worst losses ever" d'oh!
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hisah
#3477 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 3:31:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
So we end the week with NSE20 breaking out of the rising wedge downwards with huge volume on the week that the budget was read. That break will definitely push down prices for a while. Same selloff strength is noted on all foreign based KE indices - MSCI KE and the FTSE NSE 15/25.

The budget offered mixed signals, but that VAT bill if implemented as per IMF prayers, inflation will strike back.

Overall the correction that was on the cards since April 2013 is very welcome. Above 5000 the market was priced ahead of itself and soberness has to run the show after the election euphoria has gone. Tbills continue falling with 91 days now below 6% as per this week's auction results i.e. 5.424%. Market correcting, tbills falling and again that divergence scenario pops up. But with that current account deficit I don't expect Tbills to fall too far from here.

Remember, low tbill rates = equity market becomes more attractive to park your cash there. So enjoy the discounts on quality stocks as they come.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#3478 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 5:50:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
So we end the week with NSE20 breaking out of the rising wedge downwards with huge volume on the week that the budget was read. That break will definitely push down prices for a while. Same selloff strength is noted on all foreign based KE indices - MSCI KE and the FTSE NSE 15/25.

The budget offered mixed signals, but that VAT bill if implemented as per IMF prayers, inflation will strike back.

Overall the correction that was on the cards since April 2013 is very welcome. Above 5000 the market was priced ahead of itself and soberness has to run the show after the election euphoria has gone. Tbills continue falling with 91 days now below 6% as per this week's auction results i.e. 5.424%. Market correcting, tbills falling and again that divergence scenario pops up. But with that current account deficit I don't expect Tbills to fall too far from here.

Remember, low tbill rates = equity market becomes more attractive to park your cash there. So enjoy the discounts on quality stocks as they come.


ditto >>> Remember, low tbill rates = equity market becomes more attractive to park your cash there. So enjoy the discounts on quality stocks as they come.
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hisah
#3479 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 5:55:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE20 closes the week @4,806.52 down 3.14% from last Friday's close @4962.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#3480 Posted : Friday, June 14, 2013 6:20:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
My thoughts is that counters whose rally was driven by foreigners could continue to have a rough time if the global scenario stays. ... Other counters, whose rally has been driven by locals, should continue to have good time given that KE macro/micro-economics are bullish (read tbill/bonds interest rates and KEBudget2013) ... that said, keeping a close eye on the global markets which are creating an unexpected twist on bull plays
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