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Realities of Forex Investment
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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alutacontinua wrote:@hisah still don't understand how USDJPY was able to rally back up to 97 on thin liquidity. Placed a couple of shorts in as well as on EurJpy at 129. The Yen daily charts look to have turned (more like taken a jump off a cliff). Am not going to even try and pick a bottom.......as the saying goes what goes up must come down. BOJ must in a crisis meeting atm. As long as the jap bond yields keep rising, jap stocks will take it in the chin as the yen gets bought. This is going against the BoJ's ¥7 trillion/month stimulus programme expectation started on Apr 2013. With the 10yr bond yield almost up 3 times, BoJ must throw a huge surprise to crash that bond yield spike to get their stimulus programme back on track. Jap corporates will shelve floating bonds as it gets expensive (no cheap funds) and messy with bond yields spiking wildly.
Currently the nikkei is oversold, but looks pretty nasty now that it has sold off more than 20% since May 23rd effectively entering bear market zone!
It's cranky in jap fin markets now as wild volatility breaks many participants. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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@hisah - What are your best indicators,if any? I've been watching the forex market on and off but it seems like the market is becoming more consolidated especially in regards to market information and its effects.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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symbols wrote:@hisah - What are your best indicators,if any? I've been watching the forex market on and off but it seems like the market is becoming more consolidated especially in regards to market information and its effects. RSI, ultimate oscillator and volume spread. MACD & Stochastics for trend confirmation.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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BOJ leaves monetary base target unchanged and gives positive outlook on Jap economy but leaves annual buying of JGBS @50T Yen. USDJPY down about 100pips after statement. You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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alutacontinua wrote:BOJ leaves monetary base target unchanged and gives positive outlook on Jap economy but leaves annual buying of JGBS @50T Yen. USDJPY down about 100pips after statement. This abenomics experiment will be an interesting failed policy discussion a few years later. Bond yields will spike badly at some point and that will roast the econ badly.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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hisah wrote:symbols wrote:@hisah - What are your best indicators,if any? I've been watching the forex market on and off but it seems like the market is becoming more consolidated especially in regards to market information and its effects. RSI, ultimate oscillator and volume spread. MACD & Stochastics for trend confirmation. What about economic indicators?
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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With the G8 meeting next week, think PM Abe wants to have low volatility and possibly a higher Nikkei as proof that his experiment is working. Waiting on the Europe open to place a few trades. Gold and Silver consolidating again. Looking to short at retest of 1400 and 22 You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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symbols wrote:hisah wrote:symbols wrote:@hisah - What are your best indicators,if any? I've been watching the forex market on and off but it seems like the market is becoming more consolidated especially in regards to market information and its effects. RSI, ultimate oscillator and volume spread. MACD & Stochastics for trend confirmation. What about economic indicators? I rarely use econ indicators in forex. I wonder how many seasoned traders even the banksters who use econ indicators for the same. This market is too manipulated for those lagging indicators to help you earn profits... Mostly they are used to corner the crowd. Buy the rumour sell the news works well during those econ news events.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Traders Said to Rig Currency Rates to Profit Off Clients - http://www.bloomberg.com...profit-off-clients.html
Quote:Traders at some of the world’s biggest banks manipulated benchmark foreign-exchange rates used to set the value of trillions of dollars of investments, according to five dealers with knowledge of the practice.
One trader with more than a decade of experience said that if he received an order at 3:30 p.m. to sell 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in exchange for Swiss francs at the 4 p.m. fix, he would have two objectives: to sell his own euros at the highest price and also to move the rate lower so that at 4 p.m. he could buy the currency from his client at a lower price.
He would profit from the difference between the reference rate and the higher price at which he sold his own euros, he said. A move in the benchmark of 2 basis points, or 0.02 percent, would be worth 200,000 francs ($216,000), he said. @symbols - read that article. Very interesting that since 2010 the manipulation that is so common in financial markets for eons is now going mainstream. Wonder how many have noticed the number of hedge funds that have gone bust or shutdown or basically have walked away from the game. Next on line is private equity firms. If there is on thing the dark knights have come to dislike it is the internet. Too much info has now exposed the markets hidden hand and making profits from the sheep is becoming harder by the day as the sheep walk away or read into the manipulation and profit like the masters  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2013 Posts: 2,552
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hisah wrote:Traders Said to Rig Currency Rates to Profit Off Clients - http://www.bloomberg.com...profit-off-clients.html
Quote:Traders at some of the world’s biggest banks manipulated benchmark foreign-exchange rates used to set the value of trillions of dollars of investments, according to five dealers with knowledge of the practice.
One trader with more than a decade of experience said that if he received an order at 3:30 p.m. to sell 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in exchange for Swiss francs at the 4 p.m. fix, he would have two objectives: to sell his own euros at the highest price and also to move the rate lower so that at 4 p.m. he could buy the currency from his client at a lower price.
He would profit from the difference between the reference rate and the higher price at which he sold his own euros, he said. A move in the benchmark of 2 basis points, or 0.02 percent, would be worth 200,000 francs ($216,000), he said. @symbols - read that article. Very interesting that since 2010 the manipulation that is so common in financial markets for eons is now going mainstream. Wonder how many have noticed the number of hedge funds that have gone bust or shutdown or basically have walked away from the game. Next on line is private equity firms. If there is on thing the dark knights have come to dislike it is the internet. Too much info has now exposed the markets hidden hand and making profits from the sheep is becoming harder by the day as the sheep walk away or read into the manipulation and profit like the masters Thanx for the info on indicators.It's a brutal market.Interesting article.Trust in the financial markets is being eroded.I agree the internet is shaking things up.To some extent I even understand why the US is afraid.If we consider the billions in India and China and the millions there with IT skills,things are just getting started.Although they will find another way to get profits,the house never loses.The onslaught of PE firms will be interesting.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Gold & silver have been consolidating for a while after that huge April selloff. Tight bollinger bands warn of a huge move coming soon. USD has lost strength in June but gold & silver as well as oil haven't bounced. Bear strength still in control... Though the oversold techs warn a bounce is favoured. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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Nikkei 6% down for the day taking SNP with it (Its dipped below 1600) and with London Opening in the next hour DAX has gapped down, FTSE in the Red. USDJPY has broken 95 and now targeting the 38.2% retracement of the 77-103 move @93.50/80. The profit taking across Yen pairs is just plain nasty and with investors cashing out of stocks i wouldn't be surprised to see it spike lower. NY & London session will be very interesting to say the least. You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/10/2008 Posts: 301 Location: Abu Dhabi
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This Yen rally is on steroids! as the Abenomics smoke screen clears...
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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@toni couldn't agree more. But with the just released jobless claims and retail sales think we may retrace some of todays sell off. Noticed a couple of mentions on a 1 touch 95 option set to go off at 10.00am NY today (price to be below 95 at expiry) which may keep a lid for the next couple of hours......might even place a small bid in near the expiry time with a TP @95. You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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With less than half an hour to the option expiry......entered a small long position @94.20 with an SL @93.75 and TP 95.10.(Weekly S1 @ 95.32) You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:Quote:Traders at some of the world’s biggest banks manipulated benchmark foreign-exchange rates used to set the value of trillions of dollars of investments, according to five dealers with knowledge of the practice.
One trader with more than a decade of experience said that if he received an order at 3:30 p.m. to sell 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in exchange for Swiss francs at the 4 p.m. fix, he would have two objectives: to sell his own euros at the highest price and also to move the rate lower so that at 4 p.m. he could buy the currency from his client at a lower price.
He would profit from the difference between the reference rate and the higher price at which he sold his own euros, he said. A move in the benchmark of 2 basis points, or 0.02 percent, would be worth 200,000 francs ($216,000), he said. Quote:
‘Massive Size’
“I’m skeptical of the ability of traders to manipulate the major currencies in a meaningful way given the massive size of this market,” Naranjo said. “Governments themselves often have a difficult time moving foreign-exchange markets through their interventions, yet they have the additional ability to create fiat money and alter both monetary and fiscal policies.”
IMO manipulation of the fx market is only possible over a narrow range and for a short term period of time. This means that the effect is mostly on short term traders and robots. So if one can alter their strategy to more slightly long term then one can be slightly above the fray. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@ceinz - thus why I trade longer timeframes to avoid the short term noise (manipulation esp on news events or end of day fix windows). $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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@Ceinz and @Hisah what timeframes do you normally trade??? Got a little lucky on the execution of the USDJPY long I posted yesterday. Price dropped immediately after and we are now back below the weekly S1. You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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alutacontinua wrote:@Ceinz and @Hisah what timeframes do you normally trade???
Got a little lucky on the execution of the USDJPY long I posted yesterday. Price dropped immediately after and we are now back below the weekly S1. I make trades based on the 4hr, daily and weekly timeframes. Most of my trades last for more than a week.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Weekly VIX chart is signalling a major stocks selloff coming soon... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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