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Banking Sector Valuation and Recommendation - Year 2013
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hisah
#31 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 1:10:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
symbols wrote:
Bank stocks tipped to fall after results

Bank loans to Treasury crowd out SMEs

So we should expect another rally?

The analysts are back and selling banks is the tune just when 5000 seems to stall the 5th attempt to break it down... But now they've spotted CFC bank as a gem after ages...

NSE20 is sitting in a tight ascending triangle waiting to break above 5030 or below 4860 - 170pts band. Big volume is piling up since last month. It's only a matter of time before the next trend becomes clear. Sidelined for now until the break (up or down) is confirmed. And it will be sizable just like those large volumes....
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#32 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 10:38:13 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
symbols wrote:
Bank stocks tipped to fall after results

Bank loans to Treasury crowd out SMEs

So we should expect another rally?


Very unfitting headings those.

Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom.

Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond.
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mwekez@ji
#33 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 10:41:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


cc @ symbols and the BD writer in post #30
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the deal
#34 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 11:21:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
Bank stocks tipped to fall after results

Bank loans to Treasury crowd out SMEs

So we should expect another rally?


Very unfitting headings those.

Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom.

Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond.

GoK has been overcrowding the private sector for almost 6 quarters now....there is alot of evidence out there....in fact most of the lending banks were doing was to GoK...how do you explain domestic debt surging 25% in such a short time span yet lending to the private sector shrunk to single digits.....oh and how is GoK gonna fix the huge deficit? Do eurobond to pay recurrent expenditure? Hike prices of basic goods through the VAT Bill? maybe the rally in T-Bills will be short lived after all.
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mwekez@ji
#35 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 11:49:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
Bank stocks tipped to fall after results

Bank loans to Treasury crowd out SMEs

So we should expect another rally?


Very unfitting headings those.

Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom.

Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond.

GoK has been overcrowding the private sector for almost 6 quarters now....there is alot of evidence out there....in fact most of the lending banks were doing was to GoK...how do you explain domestic debt surging 25% in such a short time span yet lending to the private sector shrunk to single digits.....oh and how is GoK gonna fix the huge deficit? Do eurobond to pay recurrent expenditure? Hike prices of basic goods through the VAT Bill? maybe the rally in T-Bills will be short lived after all.


1. We are done with the phase where CBK had tightened monetary policy. Monetary easing phase is now here

2. It is common-sense that a developing country like ours will keep borrowing even in an easing cycle. The borrowing does not stop the easing cycle and does not have to crowd out private lending.

3. I repeat, government borrowings will not ceaze. The government will issue euro bond but not for recurrent expenditure. They will also borrow internally.

4. Government will also majorly use a mixture of revenue generating sources (taxes, duties et al) to fund development. I expect government to strike a good equilibrium that will be good for the people. We have a think-tank working on achieving this equilibrium.

5. Watch private lending increase at double digit

6. Watch banking sector grow at double digit
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, June 10, 2013 11:56 AM | Reason: Not specified
the deal
#36 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 12:02:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
Bank stocks tipped to fall after results

Bank loans to Treasury crowd out SMEs

So we should expect another rally?


Very unfitting headings those.

Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom.

Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond.

GoK has been overcrowding the private sector for almost 6 quarters now....there is alot of evidence out there....in fact most of the lending banks were doing was to GoK...how do you explain domestic debt surging 25% in such a short time span yet lending to the private sector shrunk to single digits.....oh and how is GoK gonna fix the huge deficit? Do eurobond to pay recurrent expenditure? Hike prices of basic goods through the VAT Bill? maybe the rally in T-Bills will be short lived after all.


1. We are done with the phase where CBK had tightened monetary policy. Monetary easing phase is now here

2. It is common-sense that a developing country like ours will keep borrowing even in an easing cycle. The borrowing does not stop the easing cycle and does not have to crowd out private lending.

3. I repeat, government borrowings will not ceaze. The government will issue euro bond but not for recurrent expenditure. They will also borrow internally.

4. Government will also majorly use a mixture of revenue generating sources (taxes, duties et al) to fund development. I expect government to strike a good equilibrium that will be good for the people. We have a think-tank working on achieving this equilibrium.

5. Watch private lending increase at double digit

6. Watch banking sector grow by double digit

LOL you sound like a politician...let me put you on the spot argue like an economist....argue with numbers.

1. You didnt give evidence that GoK has not been overcrowding the private sector?

2. How long do you think the easing cycle will last? lets talk business cycles here.

3. Lets stick to my initial post....put aside banking sector growth etc...we are talking macro here.
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mwekez@ji
#37 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 12:11:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
Bank stocks tipped to fall after results

Bank loans to Treasury crowd out SMEs

So we should expect another rally?


Very unfitting headings those.

Banking sector has been rated HOLD and not SELL. Most counters still have headroom albeit small. CFC has huge headroom.

Also, government is not crowding out private lending. Government is on a monetary easing cycle. Check 91day paper is a low 6.721%. …. And soon, government will be offering a euro bond.

GoK has been overcrowding the private sector for almost 6 quarters now....there is alot of evidence out there....in fact most of the lending banks were doing was to GoK...how do you explain domestic debt surging 25% in such a short time span yet lending to the private sector shrunk to single digits.....oh and how is GoK gonna fix the huge deficit? Do eurobond to pay recurrent expenditure? Hike prices of basic goods through the VAT Bill? maybe the rally in T-Bills will be short lived after all.


1. We are done with the phase where CBK had tightened monetary policy. Monetary easing phase is now here

2. It is common-sense that a developing country like ours will keep borrowing even in an easing cycle. The borrowing does not stop the easing cycle and does not have to crowd out private lending.

3. I repeat, government borrowings will not ceaze. The government will issue euro bond but not for recurrent expenditure. They will also borrow internally.

4. Government will also majorly use a mixture of revenue generating sources (taxes, duties et al) to fund development. I expect government to strike a good equilibrium that will be good for the people. We have a think-tank working on achieving this equilibrium.

5. Watch private lending increase at double digit

6. Watch banking sector grow by double digit

LOL you sound like a politician...let me put you on the spot argue like an economist....argue with numbers.

1. You didnt give evidence that GoK has not been overcrowding the private sector?

2. How long do you think the easing cycle will last? lets talk business cycles here.

3. Lets stick to my initial post....put aside banking sector growth etc...we are talking macro here.





> You are so stuck in past phase which we are now done with that you aint seen the present and the future

> We are in an easing cycle that will last for a long time. May it last for at least 4years

> Private lending was restrained to single digit in the economic cycle that just ended. Now that we are in easing cycle, watch it grow at c20%
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mwekez@ji
#38 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 3:05:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile
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symbols
#39 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 3:51:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.
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mwekez@ji
#40 Posted : Monday, June 10, 2013 4:07:51 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
symbols wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating

CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY

StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL

KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD

I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY

Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013


CFC, the journey to 95/- is ON. 70/- has printed today smile


The way I had been targeting this counter.Only problem I have with it is the timing and the recommendation.


Mate, it pays “being in the market” as opposed to “timing the market”
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