KPLC - I was a fan. Then came government interference via ERC & Ruto.
During the 2010 Rights Issue, KPLC stated in the Information Memorandum that it was due its triennial rate adjustment [typically upwards because of a weak KES & high inflation since 2008]. GoK also took control (51%) of KPLC.
Rights Issue Price 19.50 & currently at 16.50
The ERC came out with some story about not causing pain to consumers. Populism driven by politics. KPLC waited until 2013. After the elections & when Uhuruto was firmly in place, Ruto makes another populist decision to suspend the Rate Increase.
Actions Taken: Bought during the Rights Issue. Sold at a 20% loss even after the 1:8 bonus & 3 years of pain and opportunity losses. leaving it under the mattress would have been better.
Lesson: Do not buy into government promises. If the government can regulate it, let it go. There may be instances where it makes sense e.g. it is incredibly cheap due to a 'government discount' but generally stay clear. The next KPLC Rights had better be very, very cheap or I am staying out.
KQ - The Rights Issue barely made the cut. And that was after the provisions in the Information Memorandum were rescinded. KQ made a KES 6bn loss in 6 months. The largest loss ever. The Board had fewer than 30,000 shares this made much more in free flights, perks & fees than their ownership.
Rights Issue Price 14.00 & currently at 11.00
Actions Taken: Did not buy the Rights shares. Sold out the shareholding at a loss at 13.70 but no regrets. The cash was re-deployed into much better opportunities.
Lesson: Do not buy into a firm that relies on a personality cult (Titus Naikuni), low employee ownership/participation, no ESOP, no shares owned by Management/Board & strong unions. Also be wary of huge Rights Issues 16:5 was too large for success.
Olympia - The Rights Issue in 2007 was at 14/- to expand in Kenya & into into SA. Poorly managed by the CEO cum dealmaker cum bon vivant. It was a 3:1 Rights Issue & barely made the 100% cut. The Management & Board had a significant stake but the intentions were suspect. A further analysis of the books after better reporting standards were instituted revealed loans to insiders including the CEO & his family. The Chairman, CEO & their families did not pay cash but 'exchanged' assets for shares.
Rights Issue Price 14.00 & currently at 5.00 (with spotty dividends)
Actions Taken: Bought into the Rights. Sold off some at a huge loss. Low liquidity. Selling as & when possible.
Lesson: If the Management looks shady stay away. Warren Buffett says if you don't trust Management do NOT buy coz there are always skeletons. I overlooked the past indiscretions e.g. insider dealings because of greed or rose-colored glasses. In retrospect, the insider dealings (loans to the CEO & his family) should have been the stinky poop I should have more attention to.
KenolKobil: A massive loss in 2012 relating primarily to hedges & low margins due to price controls. Poor controls or speculative bets made by the management. The constant battles with GoK are tiring but it also underlines the risk of regulation by populist governments. I bought in when there were no price controls. I should have sold once they came in.
Actions Taken: After the price collapsed, I bought more. Partly due to speculation that Puma will buy them out. That said, at the current price of 10.20 it looks very attractive despite constant battles with GoK institutions like ERC, KPRL & KPC. Management owns shares & the CEO has a 4% stake via options. The Board has representatives of the majority shareholders.
Lesson: Do not rely on acquisitions to sell out. If the firm cannot stand on its own without an acquisition then stay away. A personality cult also pervades the firm but there seems to be a moderation after the 2012 results. I expect 2013 to be a year of consolidation & 2014 the firm is back in play. I am NOT relying on the 'potential acquisition' but the firm itself. That said, if the ERC/GoK squeezes KK (or other OMCs) further, I will bail out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett