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Banking Sector Valuation and Recommendation - Year 2013
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/21/2011 Posts: 1,010
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mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 good pick there, compared to this from Mr STOCKMASTER CFC Stanbic Q1 EPS at Ksh 2.56...thats abt 78% growth for Q1 2013. My new target price is Ksh 100 by April 2014. Happy hunting
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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wilyum wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 good pick there, compared to this from Mr STOCKMASTER CFC Stanbic Q1 EPS at Ksh 2.56...thats abt 78% growth for Q1 2013. My new target price is Ksh 100 by April 2014. Happy hunting that top pick put a smile on my face and am sure on a number of other faces ... cc @the deal, @hisah, @stocksmaster, et al  ...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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CFC Stanbic all the way for me (of course together with my sizeable stake in Housing Finance). I am betting the house on those two among the banks.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwanahisa wrote:CFC Stanbic all the way for me (of course together with my sizeable stake in Housing Finance). I am betting the house on those two among the banks. I fail to understand why SIB has always avoided rating HFCK and NBK. .... HFCK is definitely a BUY
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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How come no one cheers for NIC from 23 to 57 in a year? The returns I have gained from this share beats any other investment in the last 6 years
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 CFC Stanbic is still cheap at 95/-. For me 135/- should be the price by Dec 2013. My valuation formulae is crude but has worked severally. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/25/2012 Posts: 1,624 Location: Langley
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mwekez@ji wrote:Bank | Share price | Fair value | Return | Rating
CFC | 62.50 | 95.05 | +52.1% | BUY
NIC | 56.50 | 67.73 | +19.9% | BUY
StanChart | 300.00 | 243.39 | -18.9% | SELL
Barclays | 17.95 | 15.05 | -16.2% | SELL
KCB | 41.50 | 47.00 | +13.3% | HOLD
Equity | 36.00 | 39.29 | +9.1% | HOLD
Co-op Bank | 16.70 | 18.00 | +7.8% | HOLD
DTB | 166.00 | 166.89 | +0.5% | HOLD
I&M Holdings | Fair Price | 111.87 ;-) BUY
Source: Standard Investment Bank, 05.06.2013 Why did they leave NBK, HFCK? Co op, Cfc, and Nic will do better than they have projected. If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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mwekez@ji wrote:mwanahisa wrote:CFC Stanbic all the way for me (of course together with my sizeable stake in Housing Finance). I am betting the house on those two among the banks. I fail to understand why SIB has always avoided rating HFCK and NBK. .... HFCK is definitely a BUY These two companies are tricky I would really like to see someone value them.I think the reason why it is rare to see analyst valuing these two are. 1.The ownership structure of NBK esp those preference shares always need a sober mind to get the true value of the company. 2.HFCK as a mortgage company requires a different valuation format.you cant put it in the same level with banks. 3.May be many people like me are lazy they dont want to go deeper and understand the companies. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Analysts always follow specific stocks/companies in an industry...in the banking sector I follow the following stocks keenly HF, CFC, Equity, KCB, Stan Chart & BBK. I dont follow NBK at all. I dont follow Coop, NIC & DTB that much.
FV for HF is around Sh35. Upside from Sh26 is around 35%...total return of 40% if you factor in a DY of 5.3%. Any investment reflecting a potential return of 40% is a strong BUY in my view.
Overall the outlook for HF has improved with the current easing cycle being the key protagonist...but potholes ahead remain...the potholes are a story for another day
On the SIB report...its not best but they tried.. still room for improvement
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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in my own ka-valuation id pick cfc attention current prices and yet to be listed i&m bank at 90. wondering how to get cfc in. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@mweke .what will be listing price for i&m holding or estimate. i figure 90.00. muchas gracious for wtk nse link btw The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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I've always been wary about CFCs constant near 0% dividend yield and limited ability to expand into the region! My play here would be HFCK with a target of 35 in 2013 and this company has got a superb CAGR over 3-5years!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Aguytrying wrote:@mweke .what will be listing price for i&m holding or estimate.
i figure 90.00.
muchas gracious for wtk nse link btw going by CT closing price, you have it right to estimate a listing price of 90. On the listing date, with 10% rule waived, mr. market will tell the actual ;-) ... karibu on WTK
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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@Aguy @Mweke Closing price of CTL was 450 = 90 for I&M but that was before 1Q 2013 results were announced. The 2Q & 3Q 2012 numbers were weak for I&M Bank but now they can consolidate gains in 2013. 1Q 2013 was weaker than 1Q 2012 since Bank One has a very bad 1Q 2013. It is likely that 2Q 2013 will be stronger than 2Q 2012 with the bleeding at Bank One (Mauritius) stopped, Bond gains since the yields have dropped & post-election lending increased. Based on 10x PER (as is common with other banks) it could easily be 110/- (Forward EPS of 11 x 10 PER) Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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@VVS, i liked the balance sheet performance of I&M Q1 2013. It stood out over the other banks and it positioned I&M well for the coming days. What we saw in the income statement has been described as a temporary hiccup and mbele iko sawa ... ditto on the 110. It also tallies with the sib one
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Good move >>> Equity Bank has tapped into internal talent for the CFO and other positions in an internal reorganisations >>> https://www.nse.co.ke/listed-com...-internal-reorganization
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote: LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Equity has developed internal talent which has contributed to the growth of the bank to where it is today. Good move that the bank has now opted to utilize this talent at higher levels ... but oops, the market seems to think otherwise <may time prove the haters wrong like it has done in the past on matters equity>
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: LOL... not those who have a different idea of how things should be done? Or do not question how things have been done in the past? Equity has developed internal talent which has contributed to the growth of the bank to where it is today. Good move that the bank has now opted to utilize this talent at higher levels ... but oops, the market seems to think otherwise <may time prove the haters wrong like it has done in the past on matters equity> He's brought on the master chef who he trained himself!! Now those books can be cooked really well without any hiccups.. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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